Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Message From Michael -- May 21, 2007

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
SWEEPS AND WEBSITES

UPFRONT

TELEVISION’S FUTURE – A CQ REPORT

A MECHANICAL LOOK AT TELEVISION

OUTSOURCING JOURNALISM

COCKTAIL CHATTER


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SWEEPS: Theoretically you should be receiving this about 8:00 a.m. Monday morning. That means you have exactly 88 hours left in the May sweeps. Here is an interesting sidebar to the ratings race. According to Nielsen/ Net Ratings the leading network site (in April, so it’s a little old) was Fox with 8.5 Million unique visitors, up 39% from last year. Close behind was ABC with 8.3 Million, up 75% from last year and still close behind was NBC with 8.2 Million unique visitors, up 14% from last year. Trailing in definite last place was CBS with 4.5 Million unique visitors, up only 13% from last year.

UPFRONT: Just as I couldn’t produce this week’s MfM without mentioning sweeps, I couldn’t not mention (yes, I know, a double negative) the Network Upfront presentations for the Fall programming schedule. No comment. Just a mention. Newsletters like Cynopsis and The Programming Insider give better reports.

TELEVISION’S FUTURE – A CQ REPORT: A recently released special report by leading political journalism publication Congressional Quarterly raises the question – Will TV remain the dominant mass medium? Unfortunately, it never actually answers the question, although it provides a nice summary of the various issues. That’s not to say it doesn’t make some interesting points such as audience fragmentation. Then again, you already know about that. But how about the idea that fragmentation has disintegrated the concept of a common culture created by television with its mass audience. Everybody watched I Love Lucy and The Ed Sullivan Show or listened to Top 40 or read the Book-of-the-Month Club selection. No more. What the report does best though is provide some insightful, thought-provoking quotes which are worth repeating. And so I’m going to do just that:

“We’re gonna surround consumers with media. We’re not gonna let them cut us off and move away from our brand.” -- John Skipper, ESPN’s executive vice president for content, making the point that ESPN is no longer a television company, but instead is a ‘sports media company.’

“We’re in a moment in time when media power operates top down from corporate boardrooms and bottom up from teenagers’ bedrooms.” -- Henry Jenkins, director of the comparative media studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“The Internet has behaved like a serial killer. First, the print media suffered, and then the music industry suffered. Perhaps television is next.” -- Daniel Franklin, executive editor of The Economist.

“The barrier to entry – the once-formidable cost of shooting and editing footage – has almost disappeared. But what’s still in short supply, and always will rise to the top, is good ideas.” -- Jeffrey Cole, director of the University of Southern California’s Center for the Digital Future, talking about online video and user generated content.

“In 1991 when a bystander videotaped the beating of Rodney King in Los Angeles, the incident was almost unbelievable – not the violence but the recording of it. (But now) the distinction between amateur and professional photojournalists (is) wearing away.” -- James Poniewozik, media critic for Time magazine, talking about cell phone videos.

“The TV is actually growing to other devices… because of the programming.” -- Chris Pizzuro, vice president of digital and new media advertising sales and marketing for Turner Entertainment, making the point that computers and iPods are becoming, in effect, TV sets.

“Advertising is suffering because of the sheer amount of it, the lack of innovation within traditional advertising formats and the power that media fragmentation and technology give to consumers to tune out the noise.” -- Tom Himpe, author of Advertising is Dead: Long Live Advertising.

“It’s a case of the rich getting richer. If people are passionate about your programming, they will watch it and find ways of watching it.” -- Mark Loughney, vice president of sales and strategy research for ABC-TV.

“When we see that big box in the living room, we think of channels. There’s no reason for television to be divided by that, other than convention.” -- Andrew Kantor, technology reporter for the Roanoke Times and columnist for USAToday.com.

“The changes of the next five years will dwarf the changes of the last 50.” -- Jeff Zucker, chief executive of NBC Universal’s television group.

“It’s great to be given the keys to the Library of Congress, but if there’s no card catalog, it’s not much use.” -- Todd Herman, new media strategist for Microsoft, talking about the need for search engines.

“It is now possible – even common – to go about your day in America and consume only what you wish to see and hear.” -- Brian Williams, Anchor, NBC News.

“Ultimately the biggest story of the 21st Century will be the fracturing of the 20th Century audience.” -- Robert J. Thompson, founding director of the Center for the Study of Popular Television, Syracuse University.

“The common culture of my youth is gone for good… splintered beyond repair by the emergence of the Web-based technologies that so maximized and facilitated culture choice as to make the broad-based offerings of the old mass media look bland and unchallenging by comparison.” -- Terry Treachout, media critic.

“If I had to describe the future of TV in one word, it would be -- ‘more’.” -- Mike Bloxham, director of research at Ball State University’s Center for Media Design.

A MECHANICAL LOOK AT TELEVISION: Okay, if the exalted Congressional Quarterly won’t tell us about the future of television, who will? Popular Mechanics will. You remember Popular Mechanics. The magazine that showed your Dad how to put together a tube TV in the 50’s. The magazine’s Senior Technology Editor Glenn Derene makes the point that 70% of Americans go online according to the latest research while Televisions are in 98% of American homes. Anywhere from 15% to 30% of the U.S. population still does not use computers even though they’ve been around for 30 years. Televisions were in 70% of the U.S. homes within 10 years of being introduced and DVD players were in 82% of households within 9 years of introduction. And in case you think he’s being a technological Neanderthal, Derene makes no bones about the fact that PC’s are “far more useful” than TV’s. Instead he argues that PC’s have always been an “awkward consumer electronics” device while TV’s have been easier to understand and use. Of course he notes that will change as people grow up with the more complex computer and, ironically, as TV’s are made more complicated.

And as a side note to this, HDNet founder Mark Cuban and YouTube co-founder Chad Hurley argued before a Congressional subcommittee looking at new technology that online TV is not a threat to traditional TV. They see it as a complementary service, rather than a primary one. And as a side note to the side note, a study by Forrester Research shows that half of European broadband users (who have been earlier adopters than U.S. users) are watching at least some television on their computers.

OUTSOURCING JOURNALISM: All right, I try to avoid reporting on stories that have already been headlined elsewhere, but this is so weird that it’s worth repeating. A ‘news’ operation in California (I was going to say – where else – but that’s too sarcastic) is outsourcing coverage of its local city council meeting to two journalists in India. As I get it, the city council airs its meetings on the local cable channel. That channel is being sent by the folks at Pasadenanow.com over broadband pipes to India where two ‘journalists’ watch it and report on it. I should note that the two journalists were selected from an online ad, and they are both graduates of the UC-Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism. BTW, the editor and publisher of the Pasadena Now website used to run a clothing business with manufacturing help from Vietnam and India.

STTYWYAK: It’s time to revive an old MfM feature – Studies That Tell You What You Already Know. (BTW -- Pronounced Stee-Wee-Ak.) The latest is a report by eROI that nearly nine out of 10 email marketers (87%) say relevant content within the e-mail message is --- shock of shocks – “very important.” That stunning news is only matched by the fact that eight out of 10 marketers (81%) say deliverability is “very important.”

On the flip side of the relevance coin, a study by market research and consulting firm Focalyst found that – contrary to popular marketing opinion – older people, most notably Baby Boomers, are not as brand loyal as thought. Less than a quarter were loyal to a particular brand of television (22%) or computers (24%) or clothing (27%). The report which notes that adults over age 42 account for $3 Trillion in consumer spending annually ARE loyal when companies give customized service or more personalized attention.

COCKTAIL CHATTER: An enviromental website called zerofootprint.net has designed an online system that allows you to calculate your “carbon footprint” – as in how much carbon you personally generate. More than 12.8 Million new websites have been added to the net in the last five months, according to Netcraft LTD., an increase from 7.5 million in the same period last year. More than half of Americans (59%) say religion’s influence on life is waning, according to a Pew Research poll. And more than half (55%) of global executives say they use, or plan to use, blogs as a business tool, according to research firm Melcrum.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

Message From Michael -- May 14, 2007

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Public Domain License.
SWEEPS

THE PRESIDENT AND LOCAL TV

THE TWO SIDES OF THE TECHNOLOGY COIN

DROWNING IN DIGITAL VIDEO

DELIVER ON YOUR PROMISES

COCKTAIL CHATTER


We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael. But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.

SWEEPS: The countdown begins. Coming into the final week of sweeps. For those of you in diary markets, a reminder that your friends at Nielsen often over-sample the last two weeks to compensate for low returns in the first two weeks. And be prepared for the American Idol steamroller in the last two days of the book. Tuesday, May 22nd, will be the last performance show and Wednesday, May 23rd, will be the last results show. The other networks have pretty well given up trying to run anything against Fox those nights. That doesn’t mean you should, but you have to give those viewers a strong reason to come back to your late news.

THE PRESIDENT AND LOCAL TV: So, did you or your local television carry President Bush’s announcement that he was vetoing the Iraq War funding bill. I was curious after three out of the four news stations here in Atlanta carried the announcement. (Meredith-owned CBS affiliate WGCL-TV, did not.) You may recall the President took to the airwaves at the odd time of about 6:10 p.m. EST/ 5:10 p.m. CST—during local news time. So, I did a random check of more than two dozen stations around the country – different size markets, different groups and different time zones. Only a quarter (6) of the stations carried the announcement live. Three stations had stories about the impending announcement in their early newscast but not the actual live announcement. Another three stations had nothing, period, about the announcement in either their early evening or late newscasts. One station had a background package in its early evening newscast but nothing about the actual announcement in their late newscast. Only two stations led with the veto announcement in the late newscast. Six stations carried the story in their first block of news, but most carried it in the second block. Three stations carried the story in the second quarter hour. And most stations did it as a voice over-soundbite.

A couple of interesting side notes. The average length of the first block of all the newscasts was 10 minutes, with a low of 6 minutes and a high of 15 minutes. The median time was also about 10 minutes. About a quarter of the stations had image spots in their newscasts and a little more than a quarter had topicals for their special reports in their own newscasts.

THE TWO SIDES OF THE TECHNOLOGY COIN: A study by the Pew Internet and the American Life project shows (at least in my view) that there are more people who don’t care that much about information and communication technology (ICT) than there are people deeply involved in the technology. The research group identified ten groups of people based on a survey of 4,000 people and their technological attitudes, actions and assets. The ‘elite tech users’ consisted of four groups and accounted for nearly a third (31%) of the population. But there were four groups who fell into the ‘few tech assets’ category and they comprised nearly half (49%) of the population. The ‘middle of the road’ tech users accounted for 20%. On the high end were the so-called ‘omnivores’ who have lots of information gadgets and services which they use “voraciously” to take part in the Web 2.0 world. These are the you-tubing, myspacing, blogging, user-generating group, I guess. That’s only 8% of the population. On the low end are the ones ‘off the network’ who don’t have cell phones or Internet. These are mostly older people who are “content” with old media. That was double though the high end group, accounting for 15% of the population.

The next-to-the-top group are the ‘connectors’ who have feature-packed cell phones, go online frequently and have a high level of satisfaction with all the technology. That was only 7% though. On the flip side of that, just one up from the bottom of the scale, was the ‘indifferents’ group who had cell phones and online access, but used them only intermittently and with some annoyance. This group accounted for 11%. The other high end users were the ‘lackluster veterans’ (8%) and the ‘productivity enhancers’ (also 8%). The other low end users were the ‘light but satisfied’ (15%) and the ‘inexperienced experimenters” (8%). In the middle were the ‘mobile centrics’ and the ‘connected but hassled’, both at 10%.

Wondering which group you fall in? The good folks at Pew have provided the questionnaire online so you can test yourself and find out. Go to http://www.pewinternet.org/quiz/ and discover your ‘typology.’ I was a ‘connector’ – no surprise, no surprise.

DROWNING IN DIGITAL VIDEO: More than 60% of Internet traffic comes in the form of digital video, according to Cambridge, England, firm CacheLogic which sells Internet services. And a Carnegie Melon University computer scientist says he thinks that figure will reach 98% in a few short years. You think your downloading is slow now? Wait till then. However, scientist Hui Zhang says the solution may be peer-to-peer (P2P) networking. Most P2P technology is associated with places like Gnutella, Kazaa and BitTorrent known for pirating copyrighted material. But Zhang says he is close to figuring out a way to legitimize the P2P approach, which shares data by breaking up big blocks into little blocks that are stored on multiple computers so no one computer or broadband pipe becomes clogged. He calls his system “chunkyspread.”

Zhang’s proposal is one of ten emerging technologies cited by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Technology Review publication. Others include a ‘mobile augmented reality application’ being developed by the Finnish based Nokia Research Center. It basically puts a GPS sensor, a compass and what is called ‘accelerometers’ into cell phones so that you can point your cell phone camera at a building, for example, and it will tell you not only where you are but what businesses, restaurants and other attractions are nearby. Or, how about having that already small digital camera of yours become even smaller and faster. Two electrical and computer professors at Rice University have developed a camera that ‘reimagines’ digital imaging. Instead of, for example, a four megapixel digital camera using four million image sensors to catch a picture, their camera uses a single image sensor that reconstructs the image using a novel algorithm. Researchers at Harvard University have created light focusing antennas that could lead to DVD’s that hold hundreds of movies. They have figured out a way around what’s called the ‘diffraction limit’ in the law of physics which, as its name implies, limits the light beams used to record DVD images. So, it seems that while Zhang is figuring out how to cope with the growing digital video flood, these other scientists are figuring out how to add to the flood waters.

DELIVER ON YOUR PROMISES: A study by a professor at the University of Georgia’s Terry College of Business appears to prove a marketing maxim, but with a twist. The maxim ‘promise what you can deliver and deliver what you promise’ is a warning against over-hyping. In a study in the Journal of Consumer Research, assistant professor Vanessa Patrick found that people notice it when they feel worse than they expected, but they don’t notice it when they feel better than they expected. She and her team have even coined a term for it – affective misforecasting. In brief, the team showed different sets of volunteers a film clip and a music clip. Some were told the clips got a five star rating and some were told the clips got a one star rating, although the clips were actually somewhere in the middle. The people told that the clips had a five-star rating noted that they were not as good as expected, but the people told the clips had only a one-star rating did not note that the clips were better than expected. Aside from warning about the dangers of over-selling, the study authors say business can help themselves by helping consumers take notice of when they feel better than expected. For example, grocery stores printing messages on their receipts telling consumers how much they saved.

COCKTAIL CHATTER: Even though it was created by Americans, nearly two-thirds (61%) of the people who are ‘active residents’ of virtual world Second Life are European. (A personal anecdote – when I explored the Second Life world on a recent visit, I was the only American. Everybody I ran into was from Europe or Asia.) There are now more cell phones than people in the 142 million population Russia, according to research firm eMarketer. Nearly a quarter (23%) of the American public believe “AIDS might be God’s punishment for immoral sexual behavior,” according to a survey by the Pew Research Center. That is actually down from when the question was first asked in 1987 when just under half (43%) agreed with that statement. The Miami Herald reports that Floridians can now be buried with their pets, thanks to a law sponsored by a state representative who wanted to be buried with the ashes of his Labrador retriever who died ten years ago. The total cost of all civil lawsuits (torts) in the U.S. in 2005 was $261 Billion, which averages out to $880 per person, according to a study by management consulting firm Towers-Perrin Tillinghast.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

Monday, May 07, 2007

Message From Michael --May 7, 2007

THE NEVER ENDING FRIENDING

THE OSCARS OF THE INTERNET

COMPUTERS VERSUS TELEVISION

MEGALITHIC MONSTERS

TRENDS OF NOTE – CD’S AND FARSI

COCKTAIL CHATTER -- BEER


We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael. But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.

THE NEVER ENDING FRIENDING: More than 70% of Americans aged 15 to 34 actively use online social networks, according to a study released at the News Corp’s Fox Interactive Media conference. (BTW, the conference is called The Never Ending Friending.) Now, we’ve dealt with the Social Networking phenomenon in previous MfM’s but the phenomenon, as this study shows, is growing at a phenomenal rate. You know about social networking sites built around music and user generated videos, but how about charitable causes, special interests, and your pet. There is a social networking site called dogster.com, but now a company called Snif (Social Networking In Fur) Labs has created special tags that dogs wear on their collar and which transmits and receives information from other dogs in the SNIF network that their owners can share online when they get home. The point is that social networking is become all pervasive. Radio giant Clear Channel is getting into the social networking business with a dozen station-branded social networks acting as a mini-MySpace for their local community. Technology company Onesite.com has developed the protocol. Television station WCAU-TV has launched DigPhilly.com, a social networking site featuring current events, nightlife, music, restaurant reviews for the Philadelphia area. Lost Remote’s Cory Bergman calls it “a great example of a TV station branching out into new audiences and local niches.”

A semi-related survey by Forrester Research of mainstream marketing agencies found that more and more are turning to social media to get their message across. Another study, this time by Jupiter Research, found that small businesses are turning to social media as a way to market. I won’t say anything about the fact that I recommended this to media operations in a previous MfM.

Anyway, back to the original study…The research showed that U.S. social networkers chose interacting on such sites as their favorite activity, whether online or offline. That was ahead of television viewing but on par with cell phone usage. Of those, more than two-thirds (69%) say they use social networks to connect with people who are already their friends and nearly half (41%) say they use it to connect with family members. And before you dismiss them as people without a life, nearly half (48%) say they are “having more fun in life in general” with more than half (52%) saying they feel more in tune with what’s happening socially in their lives due to social networking sites because (57%) said they’ve found more people with similar interests.

Back to some more unusual social networking examples… website PathConnect which labels itself as “social networking for the ambitious lifestyle” is backing websites with a social agenda, such as MTDN.com (Make The Difference Network) founded in part by Jessica Biel who starts in the WB’s 7th Heaven. Check out ElHood.com which is described in an Associated Press article as a sort of bi-lingual MySpace with a focus on Latin music. It is the latest example of social networking sites linking Hispanic youth across the U.S., Latin America and Spain. Lastly, my favorite is twitter.com which makes no bones about the fact that it is a cross between a social networking site and instant messaging program which focuses simply on what people are “doing right now.” And that ‘doing right now’ can be anything from listening to a favorite song, going to softball practice, to visiting the local Starbucks. Yes, it sounds inane, but it has become such a phenomenon (I’m sorry… there I go, using that word again) that people talk about “twittering.”

THE OSCARS OF THE INTERNET: Most often called The Webby Awards. Forget about David Bowie getting the Lifetime Achievement Award. Forget about eBay getting the other Lifetime Achievement Award. Forget about Steve Chen and Chad Hurley getting the Webby Person of the Year award. Instead, learn about Jonathon Yuen who won awards for animation, for best visual design and for best personal website (you really should visit his site -- jonathonyuen.com). Or how about the MGM Grand in Las Vegas for its incredible site which won for corporate communications. Or how about the unusual Clearification.com which uses webisodes and interactivity with a different approach to win the IT Hardware/Software category. Or how about website thatguy.com which won in the Health category with its interactive website about guys who drink too much. In short, if you want to see the future of broadband technology and creative gestalt, visit http://www.webbyawards.com.

COMPUTERS VERSUS TELEVISION: Or, more accurately, computers AND television. We’ve talked about broadband video provider Joost in previous MfM’s. It’s now inked deals with, it seems, half the universe – content providers like Sony, Turner Broadcasting Systems, the National Hockey League, CBS, Sports Illustrated and advertisers like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Nike, General Motors and Visa. Since several people have asked me about video providers besides Joost, here’s a partial list of sites that I have found: Brightcove, Splashcast, Blip.tv, Blinkx.tv, Revver, Flickr (which also won several Webby awards), Metacafe, MeTV, Nogoodtv, along with Microsoft’s new cross platform media player Silverlight, as well as Jumpcut which provides online editing tools and which is sponsoring an unusual online video contest called Filmyourissue.com, awarding prizes for short films.

MEGALITHIC MONSTERS: By now, you’ve no doubt heard about Rupert Murdoch’s bid for Dow Jones, publishers of the Wall Street Journal. I would like to claim prescience, considering my previous MfM. I think his desire to own a name brand and his ‘love’ – definitely in quotes, of newspapers played into it, but analysts say the reality is he is just working on synergies – a name brand Wall Street Journal to launch his television business channel, and a brand with a heavy investment in digital. The WSJ.com site is one of only two newspaper websites able to sustain a subscription-based, money-making online presence. The other is the Financial Times of London. Overlooked in the hoopla is the bid by Canadian newspaper giant Thomson for financial and news reporting agency Reuters and the take-over or partnership between Microsoft and Yahoo – all deals with enormous implications. A very interesting website that provides insight into these deals is newsvisual.com, which shows, graphically, the 6-degrees of connectivity (not separation) between major corporations and major players.

NEWS OF NOTE: If you listen to music on the Internet, (and, according to reports, 29 Million Americans do) here is a phrase you will be hearing more about – Net Radio Royalties. The Copyright Royalty Board has proposed a “per performance” fee for each time a song is webcast, payable to a subsidiary of the Recording Industry Association of America. Up to now, the board had given a special rate to small webcasters and public radio outlets streaming on the Internet. The Rocky Mountain News argues that the new rate structure would force many of the more “vibrant” entities to go dark because their royalty costs would actually exceed their revenue. The board has delayed imposition of the fees until June, after the public outcry.

TRENDS OF NOTE: The proportion of Americans who have purchased a CD in the past six months has dropped 15% since 2002, according to a study by Ipsos/ Tempo. The study indicates that Americans will still purchase CD’s by their favorite artists, but when it comes to sampling new and unfamiliar music, they’ll go the download route instead of buying CD’s.

The Farsi language has joined the list of top 10 languages being used by bloggers, behind the surprising (to me, at least) #1 – Japanese – which accounts for 37% of all blogs, followed by English (36%), Chinese (8%), Italian and Spanish (at 3% each), Russian, French and Portuguese (2%) and finally German and Farsi (1%), according to blog researcher Technorati. As a side note, the company says new blogs are being created at the rate of 1.4 new blogs per second, adding up to more than 70 Million blogs being tracked by the firm.

COCKTAIL CHATTER: Sweeps killer American Idol set a record for call-ins with more than 70 Million toll-free and AT&T sms votes during its charity telecasts. An average of 6.1% of Americans drink beer on a frequent basis – meaning six or more times in a two-week period, according to The Media Audit which regularly surveys 87 U.S. markets. The biggest beer drinkers are in Melbourne, Florida where 10.2% of adults consumer beer on a frequent basis, followed by Wilmington, North Carolina with 10.1%. And even though it’s the home of Anheuser Busch, St. Louis came in 9th with 8.6% just ahead of Columbia, South Carolina with 8.4%. Okay, I promise, one last Warren Buffett mention: two books he recommends are Poor Charlie’s Almanack written by Buffett business partner Charlie Munger and Where are the Customers’ Yachts written by Fred Schwed… in 1940!

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.