Friday, July 27, 2007

Message From Michael -- July 23, 2007

THE VIDEO RACE IS ON

THE OTHER LEG OF THE VIDEO RACE

WHITHER THE WIDGET

NOTES FOR REPORTERS

STEPPING INTO THE WAYBACK MACHINE

KIDS SAY EMAIL IS, LIKE, SOOO DEAD

COCKTAIL CHATTER


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THE VIDEO RACE IS ON: And television is still the rabbit of the race, but the tortoise, otherwise known as online video, is going to make a run for it. And, according to research by The Nielsen Company, both may come out winners. The study commissioned by the Cable and Telecommunications Association for Marketing found that traditional home television ratings are minimally, if at all, affected by broadband video viewing over the Internet because broadband viewing was largely incremental NEW viewing rather than substitute viewing. A third of those surveyed (33%) said watching video over broadband Internet actually increased their television viewing time, compared to one out of seven (13%) who said it decreased their traditional television viewing. It may reach what the study authors called a “Tipping Point” when Internet video becomes more easily accessible on home television sets. Another study, this one by comScore, says watching video on the Internet has become “standard practice” for Web users. Its Video Metrix report found that three quarters (74%) of Web users (about 132 Million Americans) watched an average of more than two and a half hours of videos (158 minutes, to be exact) during the month of May.

Need More Proof? Niche online video company Next New Networks, launched by former Nickelodeon president Herb Scannell, says its independent film-themed site, Indy Mogul, generated more than a million video streams in June. Former United Talent Agency exec Brett Weinstein has left the firm to head a Web video startup. Video content site Veoh has expanded its user base to 14.3 Million as of June. Video content site Revver has upped the ante on videos produced and aired on its site by users. TV/ Internet combo Babelgum (the main competitor to Joost, mentioned in previous MfM’s) has struck a deal to offer more than 200 hours of documentary programming for its video service. And Joost continues to line up more sponsors and more video partnerships, it seems, every day.

THE OTHER LEG OF THE VIDEO RACE: Marketing research firm eMarketer says in 2011, the “floodgates” of online video advertising (note the addition of the word – advertising) will open up. In that year, it projects spending on online video advertising will reach $4.3 Billion. However, to put that in perspective, television advertising in 2011 is projected to be $46.3 Billion. (Also, as reported by BusinessWeek.com, the eMarketer report said that online video advertising in 2011 will account for only $1 for each $10 of total Internet advertising. So, does that mean Internet advertising will be $43 Billion in 2011?) To add another layer of perspective, many of you will remember from a previous MfM the unusual fact that newspapers are actually leading the way in online video advertising. Still, the folks at eMarketer insist that the line between television and web video will be “so blurred” that advertisers will begin directing more of their marketing budgets to the online version and that they will “converge.” Another caveat -- BusinessWeek.com cited a study by Burst Media that three quarters of the users (77%) found online ads intrusive. But then again, we’ve heard that about TV ads as well.

Need More Proof? Website NewTeeVee says car advertisers are leading the way in online video advertising, especially in high definition. And we all know how important car advertisers are to business. More than 30 car manufacturers have launched a website that provides test drivers and 360-degree virtual tours of their cars. The website, DriverTV, has been named one of the 50 best websites of 2007 by Time.com.

WHITHER THE WIDGET: Also from the pages of BusinessWeek, a story about widgets, and the prediction that they may be a “web revolution in the making.” Okay, folks, you heard it here first in the June 19th edition of MfM. To remind you, widgets are software modules that you drag and drop on your website, other websites, your personal page of your social network or your blog, and they will link to just about anything. Some people use them for selling products; storing their favorite song of the day, news snippets or video clips. The Business Week article cites, as an example, the NBA’s widgets which have generated more than 100 million views from 175,000 locations. The article claims that there are dozens of widget makers in Silicon Valley, commanding valuations north of $100 Million.

NOTES FOR REPORTERS: It’s almost standard advice from us consultants in broadcast news writing workshops that you have only have six to eight seconds to grab the viewers’ attention. The point was driven home in a writing workshop I attended this weekend (Yes, I not only give writing workshops, I attend them.) Ralph McInerney, author of the Father Dowling Mystery series, told of visiting a publishing house and watching a secretary go through the ‘slush pile’ of manuscripts. She would open up the manila envelope, read the first few lines, and then drop a standard rejection letter into the envelope, put it in the out-going mail box and go on to the next one. And the same thing happened again and again. So, that’s why we tell you to make your lead ‘grabby.’

KIDS SAY EMAIL IS, LIKE, SOOO DEAD: That was the too cute, but funny, headline on a CNet story that may mark a major trend development. Staff Writer Stefanie Olsen says a check of teen entrepreneurs found that many, if not most, of them are using social networks like Facebook or MySpace to communicate with friends and that e-mail is for “professional relationships or communicating with adults.”

TOO IMPORTANT NOT TO MENTION: Despite extensive coverage. The decision by Nielsen/ Net Ratings to change the way it ranks the most popular Websites. Instead of counting unique users, it rates the time an average user spends on a site. Based on the new system, AOL leaped to the front of the pack as the #1 Website, ahead of Google, Yahoo, MySpace, and MSN. Nielsen competitor comScore ranked AOL second, below Yahoo but above Google, based on unique visitors.

STEPPING INTO THE WAYBACK MACHINE: Returning to last year’s MfM’s, the news was minorities in the media with the annual RTNDA/ Ball State University survey showing the level of minority representation in television newsrooms (at 22.2%) was – well ahead of the 13.7% reported for newspapers but well behind the 33.6% minority population in the U.S. as a whole. A survey by public relations firm Manning Selvage and Lee in the summer of last year reported that nearly half of advertising executives said they had paid for broadcast or editorial placement of their products.

COCKTAIL CHATTER: A story carried by the Associated Press reports several people have been struck by lighting while listening to their iPod, or other personal electronic devices such as beepers, Walkman, and laptop computers outdoors during storms. A study released by The Media Audit of radio formats found that listeners to Christian Contemporary are more likely to be affiliated with the Republican Party while Urban Adult Contemporary listeners are more likely to identify themselves as Democrat. News/Talk/Sports was the second highest ranking format among Republicans while Rhythm and Blues/ Urban Jazz had the second highest following among Democrats. According to a Pew Research Center survey, helping with the household chores is almost as important to a happy marriage as good sex. The most important part of a happy marriage is faithfulness (cited by 93%) and that has stayed true every year of the survey. Sexual relations (70%) comes in second. But helping with the household chores moved up dramatically (from 47% in 1990 to 62%). What’s equally interesting is that EVERYBODY -- men and women, younger and older, singles and married -- said the same thing about household chores. The report also cited an earlier University of Maryland report that fathers spent 9.6 hours a week on household chores, double the hours (4.4) cited in 1965, but that is still only about half as much time as mothers (18.1 hours).

And in what may be an ironic twist and an appropriate way to end this Internet vs. TV edition of MfM, the Pew Research Center also reports that many Americans are aware of the Spoof Campaign Videos produced by the various Presidential candidates’ campaigns for the web. But most of them had heard about them or seen them on TV, not on the Internet.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

Monday, July 23, 2007

Message From Michael -- July 16, 2007

DON’T KNOW MUCH ABOUT HISTORY

THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS

TO BE JOURNALISM OR NOT TO BE JOURNALISM



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DISCLAIMER: This week’s edition of MfM is a little longer than usual, because there were three significant studies that came out and that I am going to attempt to summarize briefly. Which leads to disclaimer number two, they are so brief that they are subject to some distortion of interpretation.

DON’T KNOW MUCH ABOUT HISTORY: And if you remember the line from the old Sam Cook song about teen love, you will remember that Sam also didn’t know much about biology, science, French and algebra. Well, now add to that – News. According to a survey by the Joan Shorenstein on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University, teenagers and young adults are paying less attention to news than their counterparts of two or three decades ago. No news there, but the DEGREE OF DISCONNECT is news – not just newspapers, but national and local television, radio and the Internet. One out of four teens (28%) and one out of four young adults (24%) paid almost no attention to news, whatever the source. And another third of the teens (32%) and another quarter of the young adults (24%) paid little or no attention to three of the mediums and made only ‘moderate’ use of the fourth. Simply put, “daily news is not an integral part of the daily lives of most teens and young adults.” The survey showed that while teenagers and young adults may say they watch, read or listen to the news (because it is the ‘socially desirable response’), in actual fact they ‘skim’ the newspaper, watch TV for a ‘short while,’ listen to news on radio when it ‘happens to come on’ and read news on the Internet when they ‘come across’ it.

HARD NEWS VERSUS SOFT NEWS: The Shorenstein report also found that the difference in familiarity between hard news stories (such as the 400-point plunge in the Dow at the time) and soft news stories (such as Anna Nicole Smith’s death) was “nothing short of extraordinary.” Three out of four (75%) of the respondents OF ALL AGES knew about the typical soft news story while less than half (45%) knew about the typical hard news story. And two thirds (68%) correctly identified the factual elements of a soft news story while less than half again (45%) did so for the hard news story. A “puzzling finding”, according to the survey, was that while other research shows older adults are more likely to discuss public affairs, younger adults were three times more likely to say they had heard about a story from another person – although, in most cases it was a soft news story. The report did note that many hard news stories “have a numbing sameness – another act of Congress or another presidential speech – that can block them from memory even when they get heavy coverage.”

THE NEW MEDIA ROLE: Yes, the Internet is an important source for news for teenagers and young adults, according to the report. But it is a matter of degree. Two out of five teens (41%) and young adults (47%) say they became aware of a story through TV while only one in five (18%) say they became aware of a story through the Internet. Interestingly, one in four teenagers (28%) and one in ten young adults (12%) say they found out about a story through ‘another person.’ The report says Radio is actually the most “underrated news medium” because of its large “inadvertent news audience.”

THE NEW NEWS MATRIX. In the “old days,” there was a correlation between news interest and news consumption regardless of the medium, says the report. Mom and Dad read the morning newspaper at the breakfast table and would watch the evening news. By default the kids acquired a news habit of their own, almost because they had no choice. The report says this “forced feeding” of the news habit came to an end in the 1980’s with the spread of cable television. Now the big question mark is whether the Internet will make news consumption greater because of its 24/7 availability or break down news consumption even more because of that same on-demand feature. The problem, say the researchers, is that online news exposure is less fixed by time, place and routine – elements that have a ritual ability to reinforce news habits. Now news consumption becomes more ‘inadvertent.’ And even though young people may say they are interested in news, their behavior says otherwise. It may be a matter of different medium for different needs. Newspapers for public affairs coverage; Television for entertainment programs; the Internet for gaming and social interaction. The report authors say media use today is largely a solitary affair that only reinforces existing preferences and doesn’t create news ones, like news use. They quote Aristotle who wrote, “We are what we repeatedly do.” The fact that young people don’t repeatedly ‘do news’ is “a basis for pessimism about the future of daily news and young adults.”

You can access the full report at: http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/presspol/carnegie_knight/young_news_web.pdf

THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS: Several recent reports cited a study by Edison Media Research that the Internet is close to beating television as “most essential” medium. In keeping with MfM’s focus on going behind the headlines, we can say -- WRONGO-GONGO. The Internet has beaten Television. At least, for people under the age of 44. Not only that, the Internet beats out television as the “most cool” and “exciting” medium for people under the age of 54 as well. Some consolation for my television brethren, on the flip side of the equation, more people (24%) deemed the Internet the “least essential” medium, compared to television (18%) and radio (18%). No consolation for my newspaper brethren, newspapers were deemed the “least essential” medium by more people (35%) than any other media. All this represents a fairly dramatic change from when the survey was taken five years ago in 2002.

Not surprisingly, the Internet beat out Television by a whopping 15 percentage points (46% to 31%) among the 12-17 crowd when it came to “most essential.” Somewhat surprisingly, the Internet also beat out Television by a substantial 12 percentage points (40% to 28%) among the 35-44 crowd in that arena. The race was much tighter among the 18-24 group (38% to 35%) and the 25-34 group (38% to 33%). It’s only when you get to the 45—plus crowd that Television beats out the Internet but by a mere 6 percentage points, but a substantial 16 percentage points in the 55-plus group and a whop-whopping 34% among the 65-plus.

And when it comes to being “most cool,” the figures for the Internet are even more staggering with the Internet beating Television by 20 percentage points in the 12-17 group; 19 percentage points in the 18-24’s; another 14 points in the 25-34; 17 points in the 35-44 group but a mere one point in the 45-54 group. Once you get to the 55-plus crowd (that Television doesn’t sell), Television beats out the Internet by 12 points and an incredible 35 points in the 65-plus crowd as “most cool.”

WHO’S STALE AND BORING: More consolation for my Television brethren, fewer people (24%) think Television is “stale and boring” in 2007 than thought so in 2002, when it was 36%. No consolation for my Newspaper brethren, more people (35%) now think they have become “stale and boring” than in 2002, when it was 30%. And for those radio readers of MfM, radio dropped 9 percentage points in terms of being “most essential,” increased 4 percentage points in being “least essential”; is flat over the five year period in terms of being “stale and boring”; but dropped dramatically in terms of being “used more.” The Internet (at 34%) beat radio (18%) and barely trailed Television (37%) when people were asked, “Are you using it more lately.”

THE KICKER: But here’s the kicker for you Television folks out there. When asked, “Who would you turn to first in the event of a major breaking news story,” Television dominates with 62% of the respondents picking TV, beating out the Internet (at 18%) by more than a three to one margin. The television figure is down from 2002 when it was 74% and the Internet is up from 2002 when it was a mere 8%. Radio is down, at 10% this year compared to 12% five years ago, and newspapers increased a tad, at 8% this year versus 6% five years ago.

(Okay, let me explain the headline. The Devil is in the Details can be translated a number of ways: you have to watch the details or they will trip you up; things are more difficult to accomplish because of the various details to be taken care of; or, the plan may appear simple but there is a lot of detail work to be done. The flip side of that is “God is in the Details” which some translate as meaning you can find big things in small packages, sort of along the line of ‘less is more’; or that whatever one does should be done thoroughly; details are important.)

You can access the full report at: http://www.edisonresearch.com/home/archives/Q3%20Media%20Perceptions%20-%20large%20slides%20_2_.pdf

TO BE JOURNALISM OR NOT TO BE JOURNALISM: A report by the University of Maryland’s J-Lab “Institute for Interactive Journalism” says four out of five “citizen media” websites consider what they do to be journalism and three out of four have pronounced their efforts a “success.” Of course, success has multiple definitions, including watch-dogging local government, providing news that couldn’t otherwise be had, helping their community to solve problems and nudging local media to improve. The Knight Citizen News Network (kcnn.org) has identified more than 450 “citizen media” sites in the United States. Both groups have adopted the term “citizen media” as their preferred definition of these sites, although both groups use the term interchangeably with “citizen journalism.” The J-Lab group identified several variations of the citizen media model – community cooperatives run by volunteers; trained citizen journalist sites using traditional journalism values and training to non-journalists; professional journalists who are operating for profit and not for profit sites; solo enterprise sites created by individuals, few of whom have journalism training; blog aggregators which act as one-stop community repositories; and legacy media sites launched by newspapers or broadcasters as places where the users dominate the content, as opposed to their own websites where journalists dominate the work. The report cites examples of each, and they run the gamut from people like Jonathon Weber, former editor of The Industry Standard (at newwest.net); former Boston Globe editor and now M-I-T Media Lab editor-in-residence Jack Driscoll (ryereflections.org); to “life and business partners” Christopher Grotke and Lise LePage who run a web design business in Brattleboro, Vermont (ibrattleboro.com)

J-Lab Director Jan Schaffer says her group believes citizen media sites “will become an enduring part of the emerging newscape” and urges legacy media groups to partner and support such sites instead of trying to compete with them. The report says ‘old media’ companies have launched such sites for a variety of reasons – to offset loss of editorial staff, to build community and thereby interest in local news coverage, and, candidly, to preserve or maybe expand market share among consumers and advertisers. Meanwhile, many ‘new media’ companies are struggling to harness citizen and advertising contributions to create profitable online revenue models. In short, both are looking for the right ‘business model.’ As a foot note, one of the larger, multiple citizen media sites, backfence.com, has gone out of business since the J-Lab report was issued.

You can access the full report at: http://www.kcnn.org/research/citizen_media_report/ and even have a hard copy sent to you.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

Message From Michael -- July 2, 2007

BASHING AMERICA

ROBBING PETER TO PAY PAUL

FACTS TO THINK ABOUT

POLITICIANS AND THE MEDIA

STEPPING INTO THE WAYBACK MACHINE

A MURROW MEA CULPA


We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael. But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.

SWEEPS: Guess what? There is a sweeps period. It’s called July. Although most stations don’t pay much attention to it because of the low viewing. But I had to at least mention it.

BASHING AMERICA: Okay, not really. I wouldn’t want to do that, but a review of recently released studies and statistics draws a different picture of America the beautiful’s stance in the world. They show that other parts of the world are growing faster than the United States. Accounting and research consultancy Price Waterhouse Coopers says the U.S. remains the world’s largest but also slowest growing media market in the world, expanding at an estimated 5.3% compound annual growth rate, which is a half to a third of other countries’ growth rate. Leading forecaster Robert J. Coen, senior vice president at Universal McCann, says growth in overseas ad spending would continue to outpace the rate in the United States, as it has done every year for the last four years. He revised downward his projected ad spending for this year for the U.S., but revised upward his forecast for overseas spending because of “robust growth” in countries like Brazil, China and India. A report by the Communication Workers of America found that the U.S. lags far behind most other industrialized nations in terms of Internet speed. The median U.S. download speed is 1.7 megabits per second, compared to speed king Japan’s 61 megabits, South Korea’s 45 megabits, France at 17 megabits and even the Canadians beat us at 7 megabits. The report notes that the Federal Communication Commission defines “high speed” as 200 kilobits per second, a standard adopted more than a decade ago and now not even recognized as broadband in most countries. Mobile phone use is growing faster in other parts of the world than in the U.S., as well. Mobile phone use in Europe has reached the point that it is more than 100% of the actual population, according to U.K. based telecom analysis company The Mobile World. While ‘mobisodes’ (video for mobile phones) are just starting here in the U.S., in the Asia-Pacific region, distribution of TV programming on mobile phones is expected to reach $6.5 Billion in 2011, from the current spending of a mere $16 Million, a compound annual growth rate of 14.7%, compared to 5.5% for the rest of the world.

By the way, if you’re interested, you can find the relative Internet speeds for every state, listed on the website speedmatters.org, as well as a speed test for checking your own Internet connection speed.

NET NEUTRALITY: As a side note to the technology issues, it’s worth noting, even though it’s been in the news, that the Federal Trade Commission urged Congress to be cautious about any move to regular broadband Internet access. Or, put more simply – don’t enact any new laws on net neutrality. And, as blogger Declan McCullagh put it on the CNet blog site, this is coming from “the lifelong bureaucrats… (who) are hardly a bunch of Hayek-quoting, Ron Paul-voting libertarians.”

ROBBING PETER TO PAY PAUL: Internet advertising reached a record $16.9 Billion in the U.S. last year, a 35% increase over the year before, according to figures released by the Interactive Advertising Bureau. Sounds great, right? Wait, there’s more. In the first quarter of this year, Internet advertising revenues reached a new record of $4.9 Billion, a 26% increase over the first quarter of last year. Wait, there’s even more. The folks at Universal McCann predict that Internet advertising will be up 17% this year over last. And one more. The firm, Price Waterhouse Coopers, mentioned earlier, expects Internet advertising and ‘access spending’ to grow worldwide from an estimated $177 Billion last year to $332 Billion in 2011. Now, the other side of the story. Those same folks at Price Waterhouse Coopers predict that in two years, in 2009, spending on Internet advertising and access will pass spending on newspaper publishing. And forecasting guru Robert J. Coen, mentioned earlier, lowered his projections for advertising spending this year, in part because of a slowing in local dollar spending caused by a migration of local classified advertising from the HIGHER priced print ads of newspapers to the LOWER priced online ads of their websites.

SOME FACTS TO THINK ABOUT: Global mobile phone use will top 3.25 Billion in 2007. To put that in perspective, the world population is forecast to hit 6.6 Billion this month. In other worlds, mobile phone use is equivalent to half the world’s population. According to a survey by The Mobile World, mentioned above, more than 1,000 new customers are signing up for mobile phones every minute around the world. The median age of the American television viewing audience is 48. To put this number in perspective, the media age of the U.S. population is 37. According to a report by Magna/ Global, the ABC viewer is 48, the NBC viewer is 49, the CBS viewer 53, Fox is 42 and the CW viewer is 32. Again, for perspective, I checked last year’s figures. ABC was 46, NBC was 49, CBS was 52, Fox was 39 and the WB, (remember, a year ago) was 37 while the UPN was 32.

POLITICIANS AND THE MEDIA: I know you may have already seen this, but it’s interesting that two former politicians jumped on the media’s case recently. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair told a journalism think tank at Oxford University that technology has turned the media into a “feral beast” in which all that matter is “impact” – rising above the clamor, getting noticed, getting a competitive edge. And that accuracy is “often secondary.” Former U.S. President Bill Clinton called on marketers at a Promax convention to help politicians deliver complex messages without turning them into “two dimensional cartoons.” He says some political candidate’s messages don’t get covered because they don’t fit in with how parties and issues are “pre-branded” by the press.

STEPPING INTO THE WAYBACK MACHINE: A year ago, the name dominating the MfM news was Frank Maggio. He’s the Florida developer who tried to buy Nielsen Media Research and, when that failed, announced he was launching his own TV ratings service. Well, a check up since then shows that he did indeed launch a service called Erin Media, which promises a “new approach to the science of television audience analysis.” And he also writes a blog on Media Post’s TV Board. In the June 12 edition of MfM last year, we listed many of the photo and video sharing websites operating then. You can find the entire list by going to media-consultant.blogspot.com and look up that edition in the 2006 archives. And in keeping with the “bash America” theme above, a report released a year ago by Reporters Without Borders put the U.S. at 44th out of a list of 167 countries in terms of press freedom. Seven countries tied for first (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland). North Korea was last.

A MURROW MEA CULPA: My apologies to my good friends at the University of Missouri for failing to note that KBIA-FM, the National Public Radio affiliate staffed by students and managed by university faculty members, won a Murrow award for investigative reporting – its second Murrow in a row. Pretty embarrassing since I used to teach there.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.