December 5th, 2006

Message From Michael                    
                                                                                                                                                 

• WELCOME TO MY WORLD – THE DIGITAL FUTURE


• THINGS YOU KNEW AND THINGS NEW


• THE DIGITAL FUTURE FOR JOURNALISM GRADS


• COCKTAIL CHATTER

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• WELCOME TO MY WORLD  – THE DIGITAL FUTURE:  And it’s a world, according to a survey by the USC – Annenberg School, in which it appears a more benign form of The Matrix is closer than you think.  In the movie, our world turns out to be an artificial reality created by sentient machines. It turns out that many people prefer that ‘artificial’ reality.  In the school’s sixth annual Digital Future Project report nearly half (43%) of Internet users who are members of online communities “feel as strongly about their virtual community as they do about their real community.”   Think about that for a little bit.  Finished thinking about it?  Okay, let’s add some more facts to think about.  More than half  of those online community members (56.6%) log on every day with nearly three-fourths (70.4%) saying they sometimes or always interact with other members of their online community.  These Internet users report they have “met” an average of 4.65 friends online whom they never “met” in person.  But in the real world version, Internet users report they have met an average of 1.6 friends “in person” whom they originally met online. (Isn’t it appropriate that the report indicates fractions of people?) Despite that ability to reach out globally, less than half (42.8%) say going online has increased the number of people they regularly stay in contact with, and a little more than a third (37.7%) say they are communicating more with family and friends since going online.  A few more facts to add to the online community mix.  The number of those Internet users keeping a blog has doubled in three years (from 3.2% in 2003 to 7.4% in 2006) as has the number posting photos online (now 23.6%, up from 11%) while one in eight users (12.5%) now maintain their own website.A couple of caveats.  One, the reference to people in virtual communities is based on a universe of Internet users.  Of course nearly three quarters of Americans (77.6% of those age 12 and older) are Internet users.  The report also indicates there are, what it calls, “electronic dropouts” who are Internet ‘non-users.’  Two, the study tracks the impact of online technology by tracking the same households (2,000 individuals total) each year to see how things change.  But it is unclear, based on just the summary, how many are members of these on-line communities which the study defines as a group that shares thoughts and ideas or works on common projects through electronic communication only.    Interestingly, or oddly, depending on your view, the director of the center, Jeffrey I. Cole, says the changes show the Internet is becoming “a comprehensive tool that Americans are using to touch the world.”  The report says that people are using the Internet as “an instrument for personal engagement” through blogs, personal websites and online communities.        


• THINGS YOU KNEW AND THINGS NEW:  Regular readers of MfM will find many of the findings to be ‘things you knew’ such as the fact that broadband users  spend more time online than modem users; that more than a third (35.5%) say they spend less time watching TV since they began using the Internet; that Internet users express a high concern about the privacy of their personal information; that many (59.3%) believe the Internet can be a valuable tool in the political process although the number (18.9%) who believe it will help give them a say in government is low; and that the percent who believe the Internet makes them more productive at work continues to increase.  But some things I found to be ‘new’ are that in 2006, for the first time, the percentage of women going online was higher than the number of men; that while the average number of hours spent online has increased a full hour in the last year to an average of 8.9 hours per week, the average number of hours spent online at work has increased even more from 5.6 hours a week in 2005 to (what still strikes me as low) 7.8 hours a week; and that while we all know the Internet is an important source of information and entertainment for Internet users, the percentage of those who consider it ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ important has risen to two-thirds (65.8%) of all Internet users over the age of 17 and that it consistently outranks television.


• THE JOURNALISM FUTURE FOR JOURNALISM GRADS:   Surprisingly, at least to me, journalism graduates are ‘relatively confident’ about the future of the newspaper industry, broadcast television and even radio, according to a survey by some of my colleagues here at the University of Georgia’s Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication.  As the survey authors at the Cox Center note, the recent graduates seem to be even more confident than many of the writers in these media.  More than three-fourths (76.1%) believe that most cities will have at least one daily newspaper in 20 years while nearly two-thirds (62.3%) believe the current broadcast TV networks will continue to exist in 20 years and more than half (56.6%) say the same about broadcast radio.  The recent (2005) graduates’ predictions about the future are an over-looked aspect of the annual survey which focuses on the employment picture for journalism and mass communication graduates.  Not surprisingly, the graduates do not expect the media to look the same in 20 years.  Four out of five (81.6%) predict people will get most of their news through the Internet, but only two out of five (41.3%) say people will get most of their TV entertainment through the Internet.  Nearly the same number (37.2%) say they just didn’t know the answer to that last question.Interestingly, or oddly, again depending on your view, the percentage of journalism graduates who either read a newspaper or watched television news ‘yesterday’ has declined significantly over the last ten years, according to the survey.  In 1994, four out of five graduates either read a newspaper (81.7%) or watched television news (82.7%) yesterday.  In the latest year surveyed, 2005, the percentage who read a newspaper ‘yesterday’ had dropped to little more than half (55.8%) which was down nearly eight points from the year before.  Television news fared slightly better with three-quarters (74.3%) reporting they watched yesterday, although that was down a slight two percent from the year before.  Yet, nearly two thirds (65.3%) said they had read or viewed news ONLINE yesterday and that was up two points from the year before.  On a somewhat related note, three out of ten reported that they wrote and edited for the web as part of their jobs.  Interestingly, nearly half (46.1%) say they had read a book yesterday, and that number has been pretty consistent over the last decade.Back to the employment side of the survey, the authors say the job market seems well on its way to recovery from the dramatic declines of a few years ago.  Journalism grads reported more job interviews and more job offers in 2005 than the year before.  Salaries also increased, although the survey noted, just enough to keep up with inflation; but benefit packages also improved.  But the median salary of $29,000 earned by journalism and mass communication graduates in 2005 was nearly $2,000 below what liberal arts students as a group earned, according to the report.  And while the media salary increased by $2,000 for newspaper grads and $3,000 for radio grads and $1,500 for PR grads, it dropped $500 for broadcast grads and was flat for advertising grads.  But job satisfaction actually reaching an all-time high for the bachelor’s degree recipients.  The percentage of graduates who said they were proud to be working with their current employer increased slightly in 2005, although it’s only back to the level it was five years ago.  Three quarters (74.9%) say they are proud to be working with their current employer, and roughly the same say they are ‘very’ or ‘moderately’ committed to the company for which they work.  Lastly, three out of five (61.6%) say they find their work ‘meaningful.’  


• COCKTAIL CHATTER:  Just one item -- December 8th is the anniversary of the death of John Lennon and widow Yoko Ono has called, in a full page New York Times ad, for it to be designated a global day of healing.


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November 27, 2006

Message From Michael                    
                                                                                                                                                      

• BIG AND SMALL IN THE DIGITAL WORLD


• PROOF AND DISPROOF


• RESEARCH OF NOTE


• WEBSITES OF NOTE


• TRENDS OF NOTE


• COCKTAIL CHATTER – MONEY REAL AND FICTIONAL

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• BIG AND SMALL IN THE DIGITAL WORLD:  The online magazine EContent has come out with its top 100 list of “companies that matter most in the digital content industry.”   Alongside giants like Adobe (5,600 employees), Apple (10,000 employees), EMC Corporation (23,000), Google (8,000), IBM (329,000), Microsoft (71,000), are companies of 100 (Brightcove and Slingmedia), 40 (Clearstorysystems and Exalead), 35 (Alfresco and Technorati), 30 (Jotspot and Socialtext), 20 (Contentguard, Crownpeak, Grokker and iUpload), ten or less (37signals, Icerocket, Wordpress) and even just one (Podcastalley and thepodcastingnetwork).  Visiting the various sites gives you a glimpse into the future.  And since none of you want to spend the time visiting all those sites, your favorite consultant did.  In one sentence, what you see is the migration of everything to being online – not just generic ‘stuff’ of the Google, YouTube, Yahoo ilk, but specific business and personal information along with the tools to manage and manipulate that information.Under the general term of CM – Content Management, which the magazine’s judges noted has many technology acronyms but which is basically “managing today’s amorphous information masses,” you can find websites that are all global in their reach but varied in their approach.  Under either search technologies or fee-based info services, you find small but agile search competitors to Google and Yahoo.  Not surprisingly the smallest companies are the blogging companies where, as the judges put it, “everyone’s a publisher” or the podcasting companies which the judges say, have “shot out meaningful roots in the enterprise market.”  What I personally found most interesting were the various sites that come under the general description of “collaboration.”  They are all, more or less, variations of the Wiki model, spanning the globe to allow “teamwork, web-style, which emphasizes shared knowledge and member contribution regardless of proximity.”  (I should note a previous MfM which reported that the Intelligence community has created a Wiki site, inaccessible to us of course, called Intellipedia.) Examples of the collaborative model are socialtext.com which its site says is “global 2000 CIO approved,” 37signals.com which offers everything from basecamp which is project collaboration for businesses to writeboard which offers collaborative writing to ta-da list which is a sharable ‘to-do list.’  Or how about jotspot.com – oh, never mind, Google just bought the company.


• PROOF AND DISPROOF:  Proof of the growing econtent development is the recent creation of an E-Media Exchange in which seven newspaper groups representing 176 newspapers have joined with Yahoo to share content, advertising and technology.  Further proof is that the number of people downloading podcasts has nearly doubled in the last six months, according to the Pew Internet and American Life Project.  The latest survey reported that 12% of Web users said they had downloaded a podcast which is up from the 7% reported in the Pew project’s earlier survey.  However, as Wendy Davis notes in Online Media Daily, the Pew figures are dramatically higher than the 6.6% figure reported by Nielsen/ Net Ratings.  The Pew report also notes that, understandably, podcast downloaders are likely to connect via broadband.   Disproof is a study by the Jupiter Research group that Internet growth is slowing.  The company predicts that it will drop to two percent by 2011.  Further disproof is a report by Nielsen Media Research that iPod users are not video users.  As part of its Anytime Anywhere Media Measurement, Nielsen reported that only 16% of iPod users played a video during the month of October.


• RESEARCH OF NOTE:  The same group (Pew Internet and American Life) reports that 20% of all Americans say they get most of their science news and information from the Internet, compared to 41% who rely on television and 14% who cited newspapers and magazines as their primary source.  However, interestingly, the figures are higher for people with broadband connections with a third (34%) relying on the Internet for science news and a third (33%) relying on TV.  The younger broadband users (18 to 29) are much heavier users of the Internet when it comes to science news with 44% saying they rely on the Internet compared to the 32% who cite TV as their main source. Meanwhile, on a less serious note, two out of every three adult Americans (67%) say they have placed a bet in the last year, according to the Pew Center for Research, although most of that was in the form of lottery tickets.  Still, three in ten (29%) say they have visited a casino and one in four (25%) say they have played a slot machine.  And only one in five (21%) say they’ve never gambled.  But, again, note the dramatic change and growth when the broadband element is brought into the Internet equation.


• WEBSITES OF NOTE:   Can’t make up your mind what movie to rent?  Borat or For Your Consideration (both movies that I watched over the weekend)?  Then try the website Whattorent.com.  It asks a series of odd questions and comes up with recommendations.  For me, the first choice it made was Best In Show (another Christopher Guest movie and one I loved.)  Or you just saw a movie and you liked the dress, the shoes, the hat, the drink or whatever the actor used and you want one just like it.  Then try website Seenon.com.  It lists all the products seen on TV and in films.  On a decidedly more serious note, the Center for Democracy and Technology website (CDT.org) tracks Congressional legislation that impacts digital issues.  And keeping that serious note going, the Media Law Resource Center website (medialaw.org) tracks developments and promotes First Amendment rights.  (Thanks to former anchor, current college teacher and Ph.D candidate Becky Nee for this last website tip.)


• TRENDS OF NOTE:  Several industry newsletters are starting to report on a growing phenomenon being labeled “opinion fatigue.”  This is despite the reduction of phone solicitations through the “do not call” program.   For starters, charitable organizations are not included, or excluded, depending on how you look at it, from the program.  Secondly, some marketers are using the guise of opinion solicitation to sell their product.  AdAge recently reported on a conference of top market research executives meeting in Chicago to discuss the problem.  And the Word Of Mouth organization is discussing the issue at its next conference.  On a semi-personal note, I have been ‘surveyed’ five times in the past few years – two of them, oddly enough, were television related.  I did disclose my broadcast involvement, but they included me anyway.  I have to say that, despite my best efforts to be engaged, after about 10 to 12 minutes, my answers became much more short, clipped, less responsive and meaningful.  I also, by the way, turned down the last request to be part of a survey.


• COCKTAIL CHATTER:  According to the New York Times, the average WEEKLY pay for someone working in the financial services sector on Wall Street is more than $8,000.  (Let me repeat the key word – weekly.)  Forbes magazine compiled a list of the richest fictional characters with Little Orphan Annie’s sugar daddy, Daddy Warbucks topping the list with a calculated net value of $36.2 Billion.  Homer Simpson’s boss, Charles Montgomery Burns, came in second at $16.8 Billion, followed by Scrooge McDuck at $10.9 Billion, barely beating out Richie Rich at $10.7 Billion with Jed Clampett coming in fifth at $7.7 Billion.  My personal favorite with a net worth of $2.8 Billion is Prince Abakaliki of Nigeria ----- you know, that ‘guy’ who sends you e-mails about the fortune he has waiting for you if you will only assist him.  The new Microsoft Zune media player is causing a stir in Quebec where the name sounds like a French slang term for genitalia, according to author and consultant Don DePalma writing in ChiefMarketer.  


• SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM from 2006 are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

November 20, 2006

Message From Michael                    
                                                       
                                                       

• ALL THE NEWS FIT TO BE ONLINE


• A VIDEO PERSPECTIVE


• TV TO WATCH


• RADIO TO LISTEN TO


• COCKTAIL CHATTER – BLACK FRIDAY AND CYBER MONDAY

We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.  

• ALL THE NEWS FIT TO BE ONLINE:  Nearly 91 Million people in the U.S. visited ‘global news and current event’ websites, according to statistics produced by Nielsen/ Net Ratings.  And they spent, on average, nearly an hour and a half (1:23:48, to be exact) during those visits.  Now, those statistics for October are interesting enough, but proof that your favorite consultant doesn’t have a life, I looked at the numbers from years past.  What’s interesting is the dramatic increase in the number and time spent online at such websites.  For example, in 2003, the ‘unique audience’ averaged just over 63 Million and the time spent was just over an hour (1:01:43).  A year later in 2004 (and I picked random months to find this), the unique audience was 73 Million and the average time spent was an hour and ten minutes.  By 2005, the unique audience had jumped another ten million to just over 83 Million and the time spent had jumped to more than an hour and a half (1:36:21).  This year, as noted above, the unique audience continued to grow BUT the average time has dropped slightly.  Of course, there are seasonal changes but that appears to be the general trend.As reported by Cyberjournalist.net, the top news site in October was Yahoo News at 29 Million, followed by CNN with 27.5 Million, and MSNBC with 26.5 Million.  After that there is a dropoff to AOL News at 16.8 Million, NYTimes at 12.9 Million, Gannett at 12.6 Million, ABC News at 11.3 Million and the Tribune newspaper group at just under 11.3 Million.  Internet Broadcasting, which aggregates various television websites, came in at just under 11.1 Million while WorldNow, another aggregator, averaged 7.7 Million.  The Associated Press hit an average 7.6 Million unique visitors while the revered BBC barely topped 6 Million, although, again, the numbers are for the U.S.  Most of the sites, by the way, averaged under half an hour.  I should add that the Pew Research Center for People and the Press noted in an earlier survey this year that the web serves mostly as a supplement to other news and not as a primary source.


• A WORLDWIDE PERSPECTIVE:  Worldwide, comScore Networks reported that the top web properties had more than 726 Million unique visitors in the latest figures from September.  The leading sites were Microsoft with 505 Million, Yahoo with 480 Million and Google with 467 Million.  After that, there is a dropoff to eBay at 237 Million, Time Warner Network at 217 Million and then Wikipedia which, with 155 Million unique visitors and a 12% growth from the previous month, is becoming a phenomenon.  Just as a point of perspective, the much vaunted YouTube also showed a substantial 12% jump month to month, but with ‘only’ (and that is deliberately and carefully put in quotes) 81 Million unique visitors it’s not on the scale of some of the giants.  I should also note other reports by comScore and Nielsen indicate that a majority of the traffic to the U.S. websites is actually coming from international visitors.


• A VIDEO PERSPECTIVE:  Yes, I know I hit the issue of broadband video a lot in last week’s MfM but here’s a different perspective. Fortune magazine in an article titled Old People Like the Web cites a study by BigResearch that shows the average age of the online video user in the U.S. is 39.  And web surfers between the ages of 35 and 64 make up anywhere from 48% to 65% of the YouTube audience, according to figures from Nielsen/ Net Ratings, comScore and Quantcast.  To provide a little more perspective, the report cites Forrester Research studies that show watching online video ranks fourth (25%) in online activities behind e-mail (96%), instant messaging (37%), and playing games (36%), but ahead of downloading music (12%).  Among heavy Internet users, it ranked even lower, behind shopping (84%); entering contests (80%) (and, no, that would never have occurred to me either); playing games (73%); listening to Internet radio (71%), reviewing a product (68%) and sharing photos (67%).   As a side note the Online Publishers Association says their study shows that a third of those who watched an online video (31%) say they checked out the company’s website.


• MORE BROADBAND VIDEO NOTES:  Web portal Lycos, which actually scored well in the worldwide web properties survey, is getting into the online video business with a kind of online movie theater concept.  The company is providing old movies online (which is nothing different; see AOL’s In2TV) but what is different is that you can invite friends in other areas to watch with you and you can discuss it online.  And TiVo is creating a service to… well, TiVo the web for online videos.  You will soon be able to watch video from the web on your TiVo, thanks to a deal with some producers to convert their video to TiVo’s preferred MPEG2 format.  I should note the competitors in this area – BitTorrent and GreaseMonkey which have been doing something similar for some time.  Another competitor in the video sharing business is MetaCafe which is put together by TV producer Steven Bochco.  Like Revver and unlike YouTube, MetaCafe pays --  in this case $100 per 20,000 views.  Premiering in February is joiningthedots.tv which is a TV-over-Broadband service providing documentary and ‘factual’ films.  And, finally, AOL and HBO are partnering to create a comedy broadband channel titled This Just In, also in the first quarter of 2007.  


• TV TO WATCH:  Or not watch, as the case may be.  The controversial interview titled If I Did It with footballer-turned-TV Star-turned-accused murderer O.J. Simpson airs on Fox November 27th and 29th, two days before his book comes out.  Already several Fox affiliates (Pappas Broadcasting and Lin Broadcasting) have announced they won’t air the special while several major ad agency executives are, as MediaPost put it, “leery, if not outraged” by the move.  Dan Rather made his debut on HDNet to mostly positive reviews with a look at wounded soldiers coming home from the conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan.  His next piece, The Best Congress Money Can Buy, premieres this Tuesday.  Meanwhile, “Not Coming to a Channel Near You, as New York Times writer Alessandra Stanley put it, Al Jazeera launched its English version channel.  The lead piece was the re-election of Joseph Kabila as president of Congo, followed by pieces on the “hip, multicultural scene in Damascus; traffic in Beijing; Brazilian indigenous tribes; and the trials and tribulations of a Palestinian ambulance driver in Gaza.”


• RADIO TO LISTEN TO:   According to a study by EmPower Media Marketing, there is less commercial time on radio than there is on TV.  The firm looked at Nielsen Monitor-plus data from the top 15 markets and found that commercial time on radio averages less than 10 minutes an hour compared to the 12 to 14 minutes averaged on TV.  News Talk and Sports had the most commercial time with an average of 11.91 minutes, compared to country music’s 9.72 minutes, classic music’s 6.81 and religion’s 7.78.  Another study by the Radio Advertising Bureau found that African Americans and Hispanics have “exceptionally high receptivity to advertisements on the radio compared to other media.”  African Americans and ‘Spanish-dominant’ Hispanics were more likely to associate radio ads with “honesty” and “fun,” according to the survey by Harris Interactive for the Radio Ad Effectiveness Lab.  The same two ethnic groups cite particular “relevance” in the ads they hear on radio.  Finally, as a footnote to this, even though many of you have read about this, I have to note the sale of Clear Channel Communications.  The company is being bought by private equity firms and as part of the deal, all 42 of the TV stations will be sold as well as 448 (of the roughly 1,100) radio stations not in the top 100 markets.  Aside from the sheer size, many observers have also noted that the sale to a private equity firm may be a precursor of other possible media deals.  


• COCKTAIL CHATTER:  The New York Times reports that mail-in rebates which it labeled “a process purposely designed to be complicated for consumers” is being phased out with Office Max, Best Buy, Dell and Hewlett Packard already stepping down their use.  For the first time, the number one gift choice for the holidays is not a toy, games, music or video, but gift cards, according to the American Express gift card survey.  You know about Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving which is the biggest shopping day of the year and Cyber Monday, the Monday after Thanksgiving which is the biggest online shopping day of the year.  Well, not quite.  According to the American Retail Federation, the Saturday before Christmas is actually the biggest shopping day.  And according to research firm CoreMetrics, the Monday after Thanksgiving has the highest online traffic but the highest sale comes the following Monday.  James Bond wouldn’t recognize the Beretta company famous for his handgun.  It is now an “outdoors” company which still makes handguns but also shotguns, scopes and clothing accessories.  (And before anybody corrects me, I know Bond preferred the Walter PPK but he was first issued a Beretta.)  The board of governors of the U.S. Postal Service reported net income of $900 Million for the fiscal year ending September 30th.  But get this – that was based on total revenue of $72.8 Billion and expenses of $71.9 Billion.


• SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM from 2006 are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

November 13, 2006

Message From Michael                    
                                                                                                                                                      

• SWEEPS


• CHINA VERSUS MICROSOFT


• BECOME YOUR OWN GM


• THERE’S MONEY IN THEM THAR HILLS


• VIDEO, VIDEO EVERYWHERE


• THE GOOGLE OCTOPUS


• IF YOU CAN’T BEAT THEM, JOIN THEM


• COCKTAIL CHATTER

We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.  

• SWEEPS.  One word.  I don’t need to say anything else, do I?


• CHINA VERSUS MICROSOFT:  And the winner is – you… maybe.  Sort of.  Then again.  Oh, well, let me explain.  First, everybody’s favorite company, Microsoft, has cut a deal with Hollywood producers to make various TV shows available through its Xbox 360 online video game service.  The Associated Press reports that upwards of 1,000 hours of programming, ranging from South Park to CSI to pay-per-view boxing matches.  (Microsoft, remember, also launched its own iPod contender – Zune.)  Then the latest entrant into the broadband video arena is a service that is being called the Napster of video.  Shanghai-based TVU Networks, which bills itself as “the broadband digital TV network” provides software that allows you to watch TV from various organizations around the world.  In an interview with CNet News.com, the company founder Paul Shen says it isn’t video piracy and that he wants to work with the broadcast networks.  A quick review by your favorite consultant showed networks ranging from CBS to the BBC, along with Chinese, Japanese and Indian channels.As a side note, here is a key term – disruptive technology.  It’s what the analysts and experts are using when they talking about the TVU Player.  As defined by Wikipedia, it is “a technological innovation, product or service that eventually overturns the existing dominant technology or product in the market.”  And it can be either lower-end technology, meaning less expensive and less capacity technology, or new-market technology aimed at people who aren’t consumers… yet.


• BECOME YOUR OWN GM:  Okay, now that I have the attention of all the General Managers out there.  Several of the broadband video services are offering users the opportunity to develop their own channel or product, apparently on the basis that everybody is hoping to be the next Facebook/YouTube billionaire.  Most notable among these is Brightcove.  It offers two versions – one for “independent content creators and producers” and one for “media companies, broadcasters and marketers.”  Another quick review by your favorite consultant showed an interesting variety of “channels” including NewBuzzTV and Success Television.  The service promises to help you “launch a full-fledged Internet TV channel – in a matter of hours – with no upfront capital investment.. (and) harness the creativity of consumer-generated media… (and) generate meaningful revenue.”  What’s not to like?  If you want to try something a little less ambitious, try Blogtalkradio.com which promises to let you “host your own talk show online… free… (and) in fact, you can get paid to host your blogshow.”  Rush Limbaugh, move over.  By the way, research firm Technorati says it is now tracking 57 Million blogs and that the blogosphere is doubling in size every 230 days.


• THERE’S MONEY IN THEM THAR HILLS:  And that’s why so many individuals and business are jockeying to get into the broadband online video business.  Marketing researcher eMarketer projects online video advertising to jump 89% next year to $775 Million.  Not much when compared to the overall TV revenue picture, but the point is the rate of its growth.  Meanwhile, Research firm Dynamic Logic reports that, not surprisingly, video ads out-perform other ads online.  Not only that though but the online video ads out-perform the “video norms” in terms of brand awareness, brand favorability and the all-important ‘purchase intent.’  The report says that while a ‘re-purposed’ 30-second TV commercial can be effective online, shorter spots have greater impact and that the best length is seven seconds.  The report also notes the value of viral videos, citing in particular the Coke-Mentos video (which I’ve mentioned in previous MfM’s and which you really should see).  Creators Eepybird have produced a variety of videos which show variously exploding two-liter Coke bottles, caused by Mentos candy.  By the way, watch for the Advertising Research Foundation’s go-to-guide book on Interactive and Online media to come out soon.


• VIDEO, VIDEO EVERYWHERE:  Despite what many people think, the next line in the Rime of the Ancient Mariner says, “and all the boards did shrink.”  Well, in our parody version, the next line would be “and all the broadband did grow.”  Doesn’t rhyme worth a darn, but what the hey.  More proof of the growing broadband influence are the number of YouTube wannabes jockeying (yeah, I know, that’s the second time I used that word) for position.  Video web-sharing site Revver has partnered with Fame TV out of Great Britain which uses only user-generated video clips, according to TV Week.  Fame TV already had cut a deal with Al Gore’s Current TV.  Cable giant Comcast which is already in the Video On Demand business plans to launch its own video-sharing, user-generated site, called Ziddio.  According to MarketingVox, the best videos will be made available through Comcast’s VOD service.


• THE GOOGLE OCTOPUS:  The company’s tentacles re being extended beyond them thar hills, with the recent announcement that it is getting into the radio and newspaper advertising business.  It says something that the company is looking to place ads in newspapers because it can’t find enough room online.  At this point, it’s a test program but a pretty impressive test roster including The New York Times, Washington Post and Chicago Tribune.  Analysts say the move may draw more ads to newspapers but it may also create an online ad auction system.  Meanwhile, MediaPost reports that Google is looking to “harness its online paid search platform to allow marketers to purchase contextually targeted radio ads.”  In simple terms, Google wants to expand the deal it already has with “radio titan” Clear Channel from web sites to actual audio ads.  Just as profound if not as popularly known is the move by Google to provide its web applications to web developers, in essence making it the Microsoft of web sites.


• IF YOU CAN’T BEAT THEM, JOIN THEM:  The nation’s largest newspaper chain, Gannett, has announced two major initiatives, indicative of the changing media landscape.  One, it is joining in the “citizen journalism” movement by enlisting the aid of bloggers, Internet discussion groups and ‘other non-journalists’ in putting together stories.  The company calls it, “a fairly fundamental restructuring of how we go about news and information on a daily basis.”  An example of this approach was a story in the Fort Myers News Press in which retired engineers, accountants and other readers were enlisted to examine why connecting water and sewer service to new homes was so expensive.  The other ‘fundamental restructuring’ is the announcement that the company is going to merge and converge all of its newspapers to a 24-hour print and online operation.  As reported in Editor and Publisher, the company has mandated that all its newspapers submit a plan by mid-November with implementation by the middle of next year.  In both cases, analysts say, the motive is simple – to reverse the declining circulation and advertising revenues.


• COCKTAIL CHATTER:  The U.S. Army has hired advertising agency McCann Erickson (dollars unknown) to polish its image with a new campaign “Army Strong” consisting of three 30-second and 60-second spots, one of which is in Spanish.  Remember the controversy last year over being politically correct about saying Christmas or Holiday Season?  Apparently, retailers this year are adopting “Christmas” themes more often, according to Trends magazine.  The average consumer is expected to spend $791.10 this holiday season, up from $738.11, according to research firm BIGResearch.  And the National Retail Federation projects holiday spending overall will increase 5% this year, reaching $457.4 Billion.  Time magazine has named YouTube the invention of the year, beating out a ‘supereconomical’ car and a soldier-saving robot for the honor.  


• SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM from 2006 are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.  

November 6, 2006

Message From Michael                    
                                                                 

• SWEEPS AND ELECTIONS


• CUT THE CORD


• IS IT LIVE OR IS IT?


• NIELSEN’S ANSWER TO R2/D2


• ON THE WINGS OF A SNOW WHITE DOVE


• DATES WORTH NOTING


• COCKTAIL CHATTER

We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.  

• SWEEPS AND ELECTIONS:  You can’t start off a weekly newsletter like this without mentioning those two words.  A point about sweeps:  It may seem basic, but people seem to ‘forget’ that a sweeps week runs Thursday to Wednesday.  Just because of habituated thinking, we tend to think in Monday to Friday terms.  So, like it or not, you’re still in week one.  Also, after numerous diary visits to Nielsen HQ, it’s clear to me that diary keepers are more careful to fill out their diaries on Thursday’s (understandable, because it is the first day and they’re still enthusiastic), and Monday (maybe because of feeling guilty for not doing so well Saturday and Sunday, which are the lowest days, or maybe because it is the start of the work week).  A point about elections:  the Pew Internet and the American Life Project reports that more Americans are going online for political information, and the politicians are taking heed.  A third of the political consultants surveyed by the E-Voter Institute say they will spend at least a fifth of their campaign budget online in the next election and that figure will rise in succeeding years.


• CUT THE CORD:  More and more U.S. households are doing just that, dropping their landlines and going completely wireless.  Digital research firm Telephia surveyed the top 20 markets and found that roughly one in ten households have gone wireless only.  Based on my math, the total households number 39.3 Million.  Of those, 3.8 Million were wireless only.  The city with the highest wireless use was Detroit with 19%.  The city with the lowest wireless only use was San Francisco with 5.5%.  Even though Telephia officials say income, ethnic mix and average age affect wireless use, obviously topology does as well when a high tech city like San Fran is so low.  Number one market New York had a ‘wireless substitution rate’ of 6.5% while number two market Los Angeles was 9.8%.  Other high adopter cities were Minneapolis (15.2%), Tampa (15.1%) and Atlanta (14.3%).  On the other end were Baltimore (5.8%), St. Louis (7.2%) and Cleveland (7.3%).On a semi-related note, Google has announced the creation of a new application that will allow mobile users to quickly retrieve e-mail on their cells.  YouTube co-founder Chad Hurley says he hopes to have a YouTube application for use on mobile devices within the next year.  And Cingular has unveiled plans to let consumers buy music tracks for phones.


• IS IT LIVE OR IS IT:  A DVR or VOD.  Increasingly it’s one of the two, according to consumer research firm Leichtman Research Group.  Although the firm says the overall impact of Digital Video Recorders and Video On Demand remains small, it has doubled in the past year, from 2% of all TV viewing in the U.S. to 4% of all TV viewing in the U.S.  The report says 60% of all digital cable subscribers have used VOD, which is more than double the figure of 25% two years ago.  And 12% of all households in the U.S. now have a DVR, which is four times the figure of 3% two years ago.  Again, even though the services represent a very small proportion of all TV viewing in the U.S., Leichtman projects that by 2010, more than 50 Million households will have DVR’s and some 42 million will have access to VOD from their cable provider.On a related note, Nielsen has announced that it is yet again delaying the introduction of its commercial minute ratings data.  It seems that Nielsen can’t decide if the ratings should only be for live viewing, or live viewing and one day of DVR playback, or live viewing and seven days of DVR playback.


• NIELSEN’S ANSWER TO R2/D2:  It’s A2/M2, which is a cutesy representation of its Anytime Anywhere Media Measurement initiative.  In the latest announcement, Nielsen Media Research and NetRatings are joining forces to create a “TV/Internet Fusion database.”   The two are combining Nielsen’s national people meter sample of 30,000 TV viewers with NetRatings netview sample of 29,000 panelists.  They are installing software meters on the laptops and personal computers of people with People Meters.


• ON THE WINGS OF A SNOW WHITE DOVE:  Proctor and Gamble sends its semi-pure, semi-sweet message.  Subsidiary DOVE has scored a huge hit with its viral ad titled Evolution.  It is 75-seconds long and shows, in rapid cut succession, how an ‘ordinary’ woman is transformed into a stunning billboard beauty.  It ends with the message, “no wonder our perception of beauty is distorted.”  And then the zinger when it talks about “real beauty” and “self esteem.”  The ad, which we talked about in a previous MfM, has taken on a life of its own with 1.7 Million downloads, and the true test – increased sales.  It is a stunning example of a viral ad hitting a nerve and hitting a homerun at the same time.  Candidly, its potential impact is so huge, maybe this piece should have been the lead to today’s MfM.  You can see the ad for yourself by searching YouTube with the words Dove and Evolution.On a very much related note, the Billion-dollar advertising Behemoth, P&G, attributes its growth in sales to product innovation (of course they’re going to say that) and marketing innovation, such as the Dove spot.  CEO A.G. Lafley says their corporate marketing improvements are having a direct impact on the bottom line, using “marketing ROI and media-mix modeling.”  In a quote from MediaPost, Lafley says the company is shifting dollars from “communication plans” that aren’t working hard to plans that are working harder.  Translation, they’re moving money from television to the Internet and direct marketing.  


• DATES WORTH NOTING:  Mark November 14TH on your calendar.  That’s the day Dan Rather will launch his new career with “Dan Rather Reports” on Mark Cuban’s HDNet.  Also, mark the next day, November 15th , on your calendar.  That’s the day Al-Jazeera will launch its English language version.  Both will be difficult to get.  Al-Jazeera because it has not been able to find a carrier in the U.S., so it will be Internet based; Dan Rather because HDNet has similar distribution issues, although you can locate it through its Internet site, hd.net.


• NOTES WORTH NOTING:  I know that doesn’t make a lot of sense, but I didn’t have a catchy headline.  In any case, Univision’s New York Station, WVTX, scored a milestone of sorts by coming in second in the key age groups with its 6pm newscast, just behind WABC but ahead of the other three English-language newscasts.


• QUOTE OF THE WEEK:  As I’ve noted before, I don’t like the generic quotes that are supposed to inspire and motivate, but occasionally I think there are quotes that are worth reporting in MfM, such as this one from an interview by NPR’s MediaShift with ABC investigative reporter Brian Ross:  “If there ever was a time where TV people didn’t have to write, just had to know what good pictures were or how to get to a fire – that doesn’t work for us anymore. Everyone has to be able to sit down and write a story in an understandable, logical way.  If the convergence occurs, the employment skills will be different. They’ll have to be Net-savvy, and they’ll have to write. I’m always surprised by the number of people in TV news who can’t write well.”




• COCKTAIL CHATTER:  More than two-thirds (67%) of Americans consider the U.S. to be a Christian nation, according to a survey by the Pew Research Group.  That’s down from last year but up from the 60% of a decade ago.  The hot, must-have toy for this Christmas is T.M.X. which stands for Tickle Me Elmo, Extreme version.  So extreme is the interest that some retailers say the T.M.X. alone is rejuvenating Christmas toy sales.  Marketers say part of the reason for the popularity is the technique of marketing it with mystery.  November is National Novel Writing Month in which you have 30 days starting November 1st and ending November 30th to write a 50,000 word novel.  Interested?  Visit the website NaNoWriMo.org.  Google officials are trying to stop people from using the world “google” as a verb… sort of.  According to a posting on the official Google blog, “You can only "Google" on the Google search engine. If you absolutely must use one of our competitors, please feel free to "search" on Yahoo or any other search engine.”


• EDITORS EVERYWHERE:  Not surprisingly, MfM readers are very observant.  “Thank you” – if that’s the right word – to the numerous people who pointed out the typo in last week’s report.  The line from Cocktail Chatter was supposed to be “candy and GUM ranked third in food sales, NOT candy and GUN.  So, shoot me.


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October 30, 2006

Message From Michael                    
                                                  October 30, 2006                                                                                                         

• SPOOKY SWEEPS


• THE FUTURE DUOPOLIES


• REACHING BEHIND THE WALLS


• THE SWEET SPOT


• THE GREAT UNWASHED MASSES OF TALENT


• COCKTAIL CHATTER

We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.  

• SPOOKY SWEEPS:  How appropriate is it that the ‘lead-in’ to sweeps is Halloween?  I’m not sure which is scarier – kids trying to coerce you to give them candy under threat of a trick; or stations, faced with the threat of tricky ratings, trying to coerce you with candy stories.  Okay, that’s probably a little too cute.  Actually there’s a triple whammy with this month’s sweeps.  Having Halloween at the start, which can actually be a good thing; Having an election during the first week of sweeps, which can be a bad thing; Having Thanksgiving during sweeps which can be either good or bad.  Let me explain:  Halloween gives you an opportunity to have special reports that you can promote ahead of the sweeps.  That builds awareness going into sweeps.  Elections are not ratings drivers, with few people either voting or interested in voting, even in this increasingly nasty election; but elections are important to your image because, despite their lack of interest, people expect you to provide coverage.  Thanksgiving and the day after (the proverbial biggest shopping day of the year) are a challenge because programming is disrupted and viewers’ lives are disrupted.  So you have to decide whether to keep it in the book or take it out.  


• THE FUTURE DUOPOLIES:  A series of recent reports show how much television and newspapers have in common.  One, both are experiencing declining viewership/ readership.  Two, both are facing increasing competition from the Internet, albeit in different ways.  Three, despite that, both are looking to the web for future growth.  Two studies stand out in particular.  The Media Audit released a report that says late news and the web together pack a powerful punch.  The study looked at ‘unduplicated’ (the key word in both studies) use of the two.  By adding the two together, the television stations’ reach was extended dramatically.  In a similar vein, Scarborough Research found that when the ‘unduplicated’ print version and online version of newspapers were combined, the reach (another key word) was extended anywhere from 2% to 15%.  By looking at the “integrated newspaper audience” of the two, the addition translated into ‘hundreds of thousands’ of additional readers in larger markets.  The Newspaper Association of America reported that online newspaper readership jumped by 31% in the first half of the year.  Also, both studies say the Internet offers television and newspapers their best opportunity to reach the 18-34 demographic.  And the web offers the best opportunity for both to grow future viewership/ readership.   As a report by research firm eMarketer shows, more than two thirds (67%) of U.S. children between ages of 8 and 11 are online while nearly three quarters (74%) of those between the ages of 12 and 14 are online.  However, on the flip side of the equation, other studies, notably one done by Merrill Lynch, note that the online ad revenues don’t match the ad revenue generated by the ‘mainstream mother media’ – a term I just made up.  Not just as a percentage of total dollars but in a pure quid pro quo analysis of cost per thousands.  Have I lost you yet?  The CPM charged for Internet does not match the CPM charged for television or newspapers.  The Merrill Lynch study makes a point for newspapers that could probably apply to television as well.  The point is that online revenue still accounts for only 6% to 7% of total ad revenue and despite the rapid growth, will probably not account for 50% of the total ad revenue for several decades.  The Merrill Lynch report says many newspapers may ‘fall by the wayside’ in this transition from print to online.  Research company Outsell makes the point that the challenge is to match the percentage of online audience to the percentage of online revenue derived.In short, the case could be made that the present-day duopolies between television station and television station, or between newspaper and television station, is a short-term revenue generator.  The long-term ‘duopoly’ is between the station/ newspaper and the web.


• REACHING BEHIND THE WALLS:  Both reports also noted that the website product also had an advantage in reaching the audience when the audience is in those hard to reach places – work.  Use of the websites reached their highest between the hours of 8:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m.  This is especially true in larger markets.  At KUSA.com, for example, nearly three quarters of its users are online during that time, according to The Media Audit report.  The Scarborough Research report also noted that the online audience is more affluent, citing as an example, The Washington Post, where those with incomes over $75,000 account for 60% of the print audience but 73% of the online audience.  Both reports also cited several examples of stations and newspapers that are proving up the value of integrated and complementary products.  The Media Audit report gives kudos to Raycom-owned, NBC-affiliated WLBT-TV in Jackson, Mississippi, as the number one station in the country (out of the 84 markets surveyed).  The combination of the station’s late news audience for a week and a month of web-site visitors gave it an unduplicated net reach of 49.5% in adults 18-plus.  KOTV-TV in Tulsa also scored a 49.5% unduplicated net reach but fell slightly behind WLBT in terms of audience reach in the 18-34 demographic.  The Scarborough Research study noted both the Arizona Republic and the Tampa Tribune as examples of operations that have successfully combined the two products, along with The Washington Post and The Atlanta Journal Constitution. Filling out the rest of the top ten list in The Media Audit study were WOWT/ Omaha, KUSA/ Denver, WRAL/Raleigh-Durham, KETV/ Omaha, WIS/ Columbia, SC, WWL/ New Orleans, WTVF/ Nashville, and WGHP/ Greensboro.  According to the Newspaper Association of America, the top ‘online newspapers’ are the New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle Times/ Post-Intelligencer, Chicago Tribune and Houston Chronicle.


• SWEET SPOT:  An interesting side note is that in reading several publications, I noticed several made reference to the “sweet spot,” being the point at which media plans, using the various platforms, are all integrated.


• THE GREAT UNWASHED MASSES OF TALENT:  And there’s lots of them.  On the Internet.  Writing stories.  Creating videos.  Getting hundreds of thousands of hits.  Millions of downloads.  And, according to one of the leading talent agencies in the country, “99.999 percent of which is probably not good enough to have a traditional film and television career.”  But it’s a different matter on the Internet where standards are different but the need for talent is not different.  Ad agencies can’t find people to develop new media strategies and mainstream media organizations can’t find people to help them with new media strategies.  For that reason, United Talent Agency, has opened an on-line talent division.  Other groups, notably International Creative Management, Endeavor and, what the New York Times in its article on the subject called, ‘the venerable’ William Morris Agency have digital media divisions. The point is that they’re all trying to find the Zuckerberg’s (Facebook),  Hurley’s and Chen’s (MySpace) and maybe even the lonelygirl15’s of the world.  


• COCKTAIL CHATTER:  Candy and gun ranked third among food categories in sales in 2005, according to the National Confectioners Association.  Milk was second and carbonated beverages were first.  Women are now the majority in colleges with 59% of all degrees granted in the 2004-2005 academic year going going to women, according to Dan Kindlon, author of the book “Understanding the new American girl and how she is changing the world.”  The Center for Responsive Politics says that, based on the $2.6 Billion being spent on the mid-term election, the votes in the U.S. Senate races will cost an average $59 per vote while the per vote cost in the House races will average $35 per vote.  According to an article in the New York Times, if the respective elections for each politician were held in MySpace, the leading candidates (based on the number of ‘friends’ listed on their site) would be, from lowest to highest:  Sen. John McCain with only 476 friends, Maryland Governor Robert Ehrlich with 637 friends, Hilary Clinton with 12,880 friends, and Barack Obama with 14,995 friends.  But the leading vote getter based on friends would be Kinky Friedman, the independent candidate for governor of Texas with a whopping 33,173 ‘friends.’


• FOLLOW-UPS:  Research firm Hitwise reports that the number of U.S. Internet searches for Second Life shot up 73% last week and the number of visits more than doubled in the past two weeks.  No doubt the result of our report in last week’s MfM.  Since then, General Motors announced it’s opening a car racing site there, along with its Pontiac division.  A travel agency in Italy is offering travel packages, Synthtravel, through the Second Life world.  Several fashion companies have announced they are opening stores there.  On a semi-related Cocktail Chatter note -- the rock stars of South Korea are the video game players who have fan clubs that number more than half a million each.  There are more than 20,000 public “bangs” as they are called, which are the video game equivalent of our Cyber Cafes.  The government has even set up a department to encourage and oversee the video game players.


• CLARIFICATION:  In last week’s MfM about Second Life, we identified Edward Castranova as an associate professor of economics at California State University/ Fullerton.  He was at Fullerton; now he’s at Indiana.    


• SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line.  Also, back issues of MfM from 2006 are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  AND if you wish to reach Michael Castengera, you can e-mail me direct at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.