Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Message from Michael - December 20, 2007

SOCIAL MEDIA SEND-OFF

WIDGETS GONE WILD

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, BLOGGERS

NOT SO HAPPY BLOGGERS

BEST VIRAL VIDEO

COCKTAIL CHATTER – GRANDPARENTS AND W00T

AWARD CONGRATULATIONS


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SOCIAL MEDIA SEND-OFF: Next year may be the year of social media (that’s if 2007 wasn’t already), according to several recently released studies. The most prominent was by eMarketer which says spending on social networks will soar in 2008 from a ‘mere’ $920 Million this year to $1.6 Billion next – an increase of 74%. And in five years half (49%) of all Internet users in the U.S. will visit a social network site and four out of five (80%) of all teenagers will visit such a site. The American Marketing Association says that “social networking shopping” is one of the leading trends this holiday season (along with cause-related marketing) as consumers seek out recommendations about holiday gifts. Another report, this one by the Pew Internet Project found nearly two-thirds of online teenagers, aged 12 to 17, have engaged in some form of content creation, mainly through social network domains. A report by the Society for New Communications Research found that more than half (57%) of public relations and marketing professionals believe ‘social media tools’ are becoming more critical to their work and that more than a quarter (27%) say social media is a core part of their communications strategy. A slightly contrary point of view is offered by the Gartner group which warns that the “hype” around social network does not necessarily translate into good business strategy. It should also be noted that the survey by the Society for New Communications Research says more than half (51%) of those surveyed say it’s important to measure the impact of social networking by determining how it enhances their company’s reputation and their relationship with their audience.

And an article by Brian Morrissey writing for Mediaweek’s Digital Download argues that search, which initially drove the Internet, is falling behind social networking and he quotes Carat CEO Sara Fay as saying, “the way search has infiltrated our lives, social networking becomes the fabric of our lives.” Even further proof that social media has arrived is an article in The Washington Post that “now come the academics” to the field with several universities, including the Rochester Institute of Technology, Cornell University and the University of Michigan scoring grants and starting programs to study social networking. The report says the “high priestess of social networking” is what it calls “celebrademic” Dana Boyd, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of California-Berkeley. There is even a “bookazine” now being published by Dennis Publishing that is titled “Facebook.” In actuality, the real indicator may come from moves by two of the leading social networking sites. Google is letting users tap into their social networks by integrating its Gmail address books into the social aspects of its other applications. Facebook is letting other social networking sites run applications developed for its sites. This is similar to Google’s OpenSocial initiative to create standard API’s (application programming interfaces.) I should also note a particularly interesting side development is Google’s creation of KNOL, which is being billed as a competitor to Wikipedia.

Finally, let me just put some numbers next to all this. The top social networking sites, according to Nielsen Online, in November were: MySpace (57 Million unique visitors), Facebook (22 Million), Classmates Online (11.5 Million), Windows Live Spaces (9.5 Million), AOL Hometown (7.6 Million), LinkedIn (5.4 Million from 1.6 Million a year ago), Club Penguin (4.4 Million), Reunion.com (4 Million), AOL Community (3.5 Million) and Flixster which has grown from less than a million users a year ago to 3.4 Million this November.

WIDGETS GONE WILD: That was the headline on an AdWeek article which reported on the other big development to watch next year. We reported on this phenomenon in an earlier MfM, but several recent reports only further reinforce the development. The article notes that the concept has arrived when there is a conference, WidgetCon 2007, about the applications which more marketers are using. Company Clearspring is creating a Widget Ad Network so media companies can create ad-embedded widgets on social networking sites.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, BLOGGERS: According to an article on the BBC News website, this week is the 10th anniversary of the term “weblog” being coined. On December 17th, 1997, John Barger, editor of Robot Wisdom, made a note that he was “logging” interesting “web” sites in his daily online journal. The term was shortened to “blog” two years later. The website article notes that numbers are hard to come by, but as much as anyone can figure, there were 23 “weblogs” in 1998. Now blog monitoring site Technorati keeps tabs on more than 70 Million blogs.

NOT SO HAPPY BLOGGERS: On a somewhat personal aside, colleague David Hazinski has learned that hell hath no fury like a blogger shorn. He wrote a commentary in the Atlanta Journal Constitution saying there should be standards for so-called ‘citizen journalists’ just as mainstream media adhere to certain ethical standards. Bloggers and talk radio hosts, including Rush Limbaugh, called him every name in the book and some even sent death threats. All of which probably own proves his point. (Disclaimer: IN MY OPINION)

BEST VIRAL VIDEO: Two different reports with two different sets of the top viral video’s of 2007. Video website Truveo.com list of the top ten viral video searches starts with Miss Teen South Carolina Answering Questions, followed by Leave Britney Alone and then Prison Inmates Performing “Thriller.” After that it’s Paris in Jail: The Music Video, The Landlord, Featuring Will Ferrell, Safari Animals Battle at Kruger, Chocolate Rain by Tay Zonday, I Got a Crush on Obama by Obama Girl, Karl Rove’s Rap Debut as MC Rove and the College Student Tazered at the Kerry Forum. Online marketing agency GoViral reports that the top five viral video advertisements are the Cadbury Gorilla Drummer, Smirnoff Green Tea Partay, Ray Ban Catch Sunglasses, Blendtec Will It Blend and Lynx/Axe Born chicka wah wah. You have to see these to believe them and you can at the Financial Times link: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1560d954-a81c-11dc-9485-0000779fd2ac.html. Maybe it’s me, but the Cadbury Gorilla is funnier than heck.

COCKTAIL CHATTER: Website grandparents.com reports that grandparents spend an average of $1,700 per grandchild, that the 70 Million grandparents in the U.S. represent one of the largest and most powerful consumer segments in the country, and that by 2025 one in four Americans will be a grandparent. Merriam Webster has picked w00t, typically spelled with two zeros and defined as “an expression of joy coined by online gamers,” as its word of the year. The latest craze in Japan is keitai shousetus, mobile phone novels, written on a cell phone and distributed to other cell phones. A story about high school romance written by a nursery school teacher from Kokura in Japan’s south has written several, one of which has since sold 420,000 copies in hardcopy format. Japan also held what may be the first film festival featuring works shot on camera-equipped cell phones. OfficeMax has brought back its elfyourself.com website where you can add a face to a dancing elf.

AWARD CONGRATULATIONS: To my friends at my former station KMOV-TV in St. Louis for winning a DuPont Columbia silver baton for excellence in broadcast journalism. The station was one of three Belo stations (others were KHOU-TV and WFAA-TV) to win one of the 13 awards given. Even more impressive was the win by little KNOE-TV in Monroe, Louisiana, for its examination of the National Guard and the Katrina disaster. As a slight brag (okay, a big brag), we won a silver baton at KMOV when I was there as well.

FOOTNOTE: This is the last MfM for this year. As noted in last week’s newsletter, we will be going on a short hiatus over the holidays, unless of course something huge develops that I just have to report on. Happy Holidays!

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail 0 with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at my website MediaConsultant.tv.

Monday, December 17, 2007

Message From Michael -- December 10, 2007

FACTOIDS FORETELLING THE FUTURE

COMPUTERS DISAPPEARING INTO THE CLOUDS

HE KNOWS WHEN YOU’VE BEEN GOOD OR BEEN BAD

THE CUSTOMER IS ALWAYS RIGHT

THE COUNTERINTUITIVE CHINESE STUDY

STEPPING INTO THE POLITICAL WAYBACK MACHINE

ANOTHER MARKETING CONUNDRUM


We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael. But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.

FACTOIDS FORETELLING THE FUTURE: Two of them, actually. The number of multimedia mobile phones being shipped worldwide will pass the number of television sets being sold, with more than 300 Million units being shipped next year, according to the firm MultiMedia Intelligence which specializes in ‘delivering IP-based video to the nth screen.’ And buried in an Associated Press article about the UBS Media Conference was a statement by the head of Gannett’s newspaper division, Sue Clark-Johnson, that they had trained 600 print journalists how to make video for their websites. The second factoid is a message to my TV brethren and speaks to the growing battle over the Internet; and is also why I take a holistic approach to reporting on media in all its facets in MfM. The first factoid also speaks to that holistic approach and is indicative of the battle between new media and traditional media.

MultiMedia Intelligence defines a multimedia handset as one with an image sensor, MP3 audio support and video playback. Based on that definition, three out of five handsets today have multimedia functionality. However, in three years time, by 2011, the report says almost 9 out of 10 handsets would qualify. The report says the number of handsets with touch screens will reach 200 million by 2011.

COMPUTERS DISAPPEARING INTO THE CLOUDS: Several of the world’s largest Internet and computer companies are trying to get rid of the computer as we know it. It’s a system called “cloud computing” in which not only are the data and content (documents, spreadsheets, presentations and emails) stored online but so are the applications (Word, Excel, PowerPoint, etc.). Microsoft has Office Live; Google Calendar stores events; Google Docs stores spreadsheets and documents; Picasa stores pictures; and, of course, companies like Yahoo, Amazon and eBay have search, email, and e-commerce applications online. Google and I.B.M. are funding a major cloud computing research initiative to build large data centers that research universities can tap into in order to perform a kind of ‘supercomputing’ function – what they call ‘Internet-scale computing.’ The big concern, of course, is security. InformationWeek reports that the Sans Institute latest @Risk bulletin found 60 vulnerabilities in the online Web applications, compared to two for Windows, Internet Explorer and Mac OS, three for Linux, nine for third party Windows applications and 16 for cross-platform applications. However, the article points out the new Web applications are just that – new, while the other systems have been around for a long time and so they’ve been tried and tested more.

HE KNOWS WHEN YOU’VE BEEN GOOD OR BEEN BAD: And, no, I’m not talking about Santa Claus sitting around at the North Pole. Instead I’m talking about the CEO of a phone company in Monroe, Louisiana. The company, CenturyTel Inc., is using software called ‘deep packet inspection boxes’ that can track EVERY – repeat, EVERY – website you visit. Up to now, such tracking has been limited to cookies that are stored on your hard drive after you visit a website. Now, with the deep packet system, the tracking is done at the Internet Service Provider site so that your online travels are noted at the start. An article in the Wall Street Journal notes that the software developed by several companies including NebuAd, FrontPorch and Phorm is raising all kinds of privacy concerns. A lengthy article carried by the Associated Press raises similar concerns about what is called “behavioral targeting.” The AP report cites as an example how, based on weather reports and restaurant listings you check out online, Yahoo, for example, has a good idea where you live; then based on searches you have made online, the web portal also knows where you want to go. The result – next time you go online there’s an advertisement from United Airlines for flights between these two places.

THE CUSTOMER IS ALWAYS RIGHT: Readers who are old enough will remember seeing a sign saying that behind the counter at the Country Store or Five and Ten store. Well, apparently it’s coming back, except that now it’s called “consumer generated reviews.” Two separate studies tout the importance and advantages of such reviews. Nielsen-owned comScore and ‘research and strategic analysis’ firm The Kelsey Group found that one in four Internet users rely on consumer generated reviews to make a decision; and of that group; three quarters said the review had a major impact on their decision to buy and nearly ALL of them say they found the reviews to be accurate. Not only that but the consumers surveyed said they were willing to pay more for products or services that got good ratings. In a similar vein, a study by social commerce site BazaarVoice and word of mouth research and consulting firm Keller Fay Group found that, despite the belief that the Internet caters to people with a gripe, more than half of such reviews are positive. Nine out of ten such reviewers said they were only trying to help other consumers make better decisions. The Internet Retailers Association says nearly a quarter of the Internet businesses have started customer reviews for this holiday buying season.

THE COUNTERINTUITIVE CHINESE STUDY: A study by interactive conglomerate IAC and advertising agency JWT finds that five times as many Chinese as American respondents (61% vs. 13%) say they have a parallel life online; Chinese youth are twice as likely as young Americans (25% vs. 12%) to say they would NOT feel okay going without Internet access for more than a day; More than twice as many Chinese youth admitted they sometimes feel ‘addicted’ to living online (42% vs. 18%); Chinese respondents were four times as likely as Americans to agree that things ONLINE feel more intense than things OFFLINE (48% vs. 12%); More than three quarters (77%) of the Chinese sample agreed that computer/console games are more fun when played online compared with a third of the Americans. And lastly, the folks at the two companies say the Chinese Internet is buzzing with “virtual pheromones – cybermones, if you will” with three times as many Chinese as Americans (32% vs. 11%) willing to admit that the Internet has broadened their sex life. As a side note to this, one of the hottest blogging sensations in China was a sex blog by a young woman who goes by the name Mu Zimei.

FOOTNOTE: Security software vendor MacAfee says that China accounts for four out of five major cyber attacks on governments. In a report carried by the Associated Press, the company says there were more attacks on ‘critical’ governmental infrastructures in 2007 than ever before. The company says 120 countries are developing “cyber attack strategies”, that there is a brewing “cyber cold war” and that the attacks could erupt into a worldwide conflict. China, almost needless to say, denies such involvement.

ADVERTISING REPORT FOLLOW-UP: In an earlier MfM, we reported on ZenithOptimedia’s worldwide projections for advertising in 2008. Another interesting factoid I found in the report: Between now and 2010, the ten fastest growing advertising markets will be Kazakhstan in first place, followed by Belarus, Serbia, Egypt, Russia, Moldova, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, and what the agency refers to as “Pan Arab.”

STEPPING INTO THE POLITICAL WAYBACK MACHINE: The ‘most memorable’ political moment in American radio/television history, according to a survey of scholars, politicians and analysts by the Museum of Broadcast Communications, was the assassination of John F. Kennedy and the subsequent funeral coverage. The attack on the World Trade Center was second in the list of 125 moments, followed by the first Kennedy-Nixon Debate in 1960, Franklin Roosevelt’s Pearl Harbor speech in 1941, Neil Armstrong walking on the moon in 1969, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1968, Franklin Roosevelt, again, for his first inaugural address in 1933, Richard Nixon’s Checkers speech, Martin Luther King’s I have a dream speech in 1963 and Richard Nixon, again, for his farewell speech in 1974. Ronald Reagan leads in terms of mentions with 14 moments listed, followed by Richard Nixon with 12, John F. Kennedy with 10 and Franklin Roosevelt with 9. President George W. Bush gets five mentions, the same as his father and Bill Clinton and Lyndon Johnson, but one more than Jimmy Carter. The assassination of Robert Kennedy came in at 46 and the assassination of Martin Luther King came in at 50. You can view the full list at the museum’s website http://www.museum.tv.

ANOTHER MARKETING CONUNDRUM: Following a previous week’s MC (marketing conundrum) in MfM, I have another. Explain to me why the liquor store next to the Publix supermarket across the street from me carries $40 to $80 bottles of wine when they have surly 20-something clerks whose knowledge of wine is limited to ‘reds’ and ‘whites.’

FOOTNOTE/ DISCLAIMER: The weekly Message From Michael will be sent out on an intermittent basis over the holidays. As we find new research or studies that we find interesting and that haven’t been beaten to death in other media, we’ll bring them to you.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at my website MediaConsultant.tv.

Message From Michael -- December 3, 2007

SWEEPS AFTERMATH

SWEEPS BY THE NUMBERS

REPORTS OF TV’S DEATH ARE

READING REPORT FOLO

HEY, BIG SPENDER, SPEND A LITTLE

COCKTAIL CHATTER – CHINA AND RUSSIA

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST


We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael. But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.

SWEEPS AFTERMATH: Only one of the five networks, Fox, showed any improvement year-to-year in the November ratings. Or, put another way, every network but Fox dropped year to year, according to Nielsen and reported by The Programming Insider. Fox claimed the #1 spot in the Adults 18-34 demo, but more importantly, as I say, it was the only network that was up year to year. CBS won the race for households and for total viewers, and tied in the Adult 25-54 demographic, although it was down 7% year to year. ABC claimed the title in the key Adults 18-49 demographic, although it, too, was down 7% year to year. NBC… well, the Peacock Network really didn’t have anything to crow about, dropping anywhere from 10% to 20% in the various categories. Its only consolation was that the CW was worse, dropping a staggering 21% to 25% year to year.

SWEEPS BY THE NUMBERS: A “record.” A “new zenith.” These are two references, also from The Programming Insider, about cable programming ratings in November. The ‘record’ was a reference to the male-driven G4 program which had 96,000 viewers. The ‘new zenith’ was a reference to Style which had 101,000 viewers. Just to put that in perspective, the number one station, WABC-TV, this November in the number one market, New York, had 281,000 viewers. And just to provide perspective on the perspective, the number one station, Belo8, in the Dallas-Fort Worth market, which is #5 in the country, had 248,431 viewers for its 10pm newscast. Okay, some more perspective (and, yes, that means more numbers). New York has 7,391,940 TV households. Dallas-Fort Worth has 2,435,600 TV households. The difference in the TV stations is that while a rating point is worth 73,920 households in New York City, WABC won with a 3.8 rating; while in Dallas-Fort Worth, even though a rating point is ‘only’ worth 24,350 households, Belo8 had a 10.2 rating.

Okay, one last set of numbers and then I promise I’ll quit. Nielsen Media puts the total number of TV homes in 2008 at 112,798,170. The Census Bureau puts the total U.S. population as of today (December 2nd) at 303,505,856. Lastly, total viewers for the network evening news put NBC on top with 9.91 Million viewers for the week of November 19th, followed by ABC with 9.03 Million and CBS with 6.94 Million. I should also note that there are cable channels pulling substantial numbers – like ABC Family (1.1 Million), SciFi (1.14 Million), and USA (1.98 Million). Also, many of you will note that NBC’s Brian Williams took back the number one spot from ABC’s Charlie Gibson after Williams appeared on Saturday Night Live.

REPORTS OF TV’S DEATH ARE: You know, the rest of the quote – Greatly Exaggerated. Two recent reports confirm that TV is here for some time. The first, a survey by researcher Jack Myers and commissioned by ‘global intelligence service’ Teletrax found that nearly half of media industry executives believe that Television will account for the majority (60%) of the video being delivered with the Internet accounting for the rest by the year 2012. Another fifth believe that Television will account for 80% of the video delivery. Of course, on the flip side of that, one in ten executives believe that the Internet will account for 80% of the video delivery system and two in ten believe the Internet will account for 60% of the video by 2012. Not surprisingly, the younger the age group the higher the usage of video on the Internet or other mobile sources. There is much less equivocation in a report released by consultancy firm Bain and Co. which says it will be five years or more before Internet video becomes a viable alternative to broadcast, cable or satellite. Even more telling, the Bain report says that by 2012, U.S. viewers will spend on average two hours MORE per week watching television but that Internet use ‘outside of the office’ will only rise by half an hour per week. The head of Bain’s ‘global media practice’, David Sanderson, is quoted in a Reuters’ report as saying the technology isn’t quite there and neither is the business model for Internet video.

Disclaimer: The Teletrax/ Myers report is focused on ‘selling’ the concept of video watermarking, which is one of Teletrax’s services. Video watermarking is a system of embedding a mark into video and/or audio so that it can’t be picked up by the ear or eye but can be tracked by downstream recognition devices. The other form of tracking content use is video fingerprinting which ‘recognizes’ the different sound, motion and patterns of the video.

Footnotes: Regular readers of MfM will recall previous studies reported here that despite the proliferation of user-generated content, most video users still gravitate to professionally produced content. And add to the long list of things I didn’t know: Former Massachusetts governor and Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney was once CEO of the Bain and Co. management consulting firm.

READING REPORT FOLO: There was so much info in the National Endowment for the Arts’ Reading Report, profiled in last week’s MfM, that I had to do a brief follow-up. One of the other fascinating facts in the report confirms previous studies about media multi-tasking. More than a quarter of 7th to 12th graders (28%) say they are using other media ‘most of the time’ while reading while nearly another third (30%) say they are using other media ‘some of the time’ while reading. And the two top ‘other’ activities are watching television (11%) and listening to music (10%). The report cites U.S. Department of Labor statistics that indicate 15 to 24 year olds spend an average of 7 minutes each day ‘reading for pleasure’ (remember, that’s the key). The same age group spends two to 2 ½ hours a day watching television. And before any of you ‘oldies’ start tsk-tsking, the report says the 45-54 age group spends 17 minutes a day reading something other than what’s required for work, while the 55-64 group spends 30 minutes and the over 65 group spends 50 minutes a day ‘reading for pleasure.’

HEY, BIG SPENDER, SPEND A LITTLE: Or, if you’re Proctor and Gamble, spend a lot. The consumer products and advertising behemoth retains the title of the world’s largest advertiser, spending a whopping, unbelievable, incredible, amazing $8.52 Billion worldwide in the last year surveyed. In its annual Global Marketers report, Advertising Age says the top 100 marketers spend $97.8 Billion in the 90 countries surveyed, with nearly half (47.1% or $46.02 Billion) being spent in the U.S. alone. In part, of course, that’s because 46 of the top 100 marketers are U.S. based. Europe accounted for the next largest amount (31.8%) followed by the Asia/ Pacific region (15.3%). The London/Rotterdam based Unilever came in second worldwide at $4.54 Billion, beating out General Motors which actually lowered its advertising by 17.4% to $3.35 Billion, followed by Clichy, France, based L’Oreal at $3.12 Billion, and Toyota at $3.1 Billion.

Media companies making the list include Time Warner at #7 with $2.14 Billion worldwide spending; Walt Disney Co at #13 spending $1.75 Billion; General Electric which sort of qualifies as a media company at #23 with $1.25 Billion; News Corp at #25 with $1.1 Billion; and Viacom at #41 with $735 Million. The report available at http://adage.com/images/random/datacenter/2007/globalmarketing2007.pdf gives you country by country breakouts from Australia to Azerbaijan and from Italy to India.

COCKTAIL CHATTER: As a side note of sorts to the P&G spending, the company has launched a website, along with NBC Universal Digital Media, aimed at pet owners, called petside.com. Another website, midomi.com, allows you to search for songs or artists by singing or humming a few bars of the song you are looking for. And just in time for the holiday season the Mall of America joined with Phillips Electronics to implement a cell phone text parking system in which you can put in your car location and a text message will be sent back to remind you where you parked. Trendwatching website Springwise.com says the latest PC video game to make the rounds is Arabian Lords which is a bilingual strategy game inspired by the rise of Islam between the 7th and 13th centuries and targeted specifically at Middle Eastern players. According to Blognation Russia (which, BTW, is a great site for reading about the former Soviet Union), Russia has its first Billion dollar Internet company – Mail.ru, a free web mail service which South African media and Internet group Naspers paid $26 Million to get a 2.6% stake. China-based (and Yahoo invested) search engine Alibaba is launching an online ad service to compete with the other Chinese ad service Baidu, named – no, joke – Alimama.

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST: Social networking giant Facebook has had to roll back its controversial advertising program Beacon (featured or ‘warned about’ in an MfM last month) which sent alerts about what people were buying to their friends, after a rebellion by members and privacy groups. However, it still retains the extremely targeted behavioral/contextual advertising program. And 60 Minutes did a profile piece last night on the One Laptop Per Child program featured in MfM several times over the last year.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at my website MediaConsultant.tv.