Monday, April 30, 2007

Message From Michael -- April 30, 2007

THE TWO DIGITAL DIVIDES

THE WORLD’S MOST VALUABLE BRANDS

MEDIA VIOLENCE

MYSPACE NEWS FOLLOW UP

THE WORLD TRADE DIVIDE

COCKTAIL CHATTER


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THE TWO DIGITAL DIVIDES: One is in the U.S. – between the rich and poor, the urban and rural, the have’s and have not’s. The other is between the U.S. and the rest of the world. That last one has become so touchy that the U.S. House of Representatives AND the U.S. Senate are holding committee hearings into why so many countries have jumped ahead of the U.S. in terms of broadband penetration. Using figures supplied by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the chairman of the committee, Senator Daniel Inouye says the U.S. has dropped from 4th in the world to 12th and now to 15th in terms of broadband penetration per 100 population. Denmark ranks #1 with 31.9 subscribers per 100 inhabitants, followed by the Netherlands, Iceland, Korea, Switzerland, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Canada, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, France, Japan and then the U.S. at 15, just ahead of Australia, Austria, Germany, Spain and Italy. Yet at the same time it should be noted that with 58 Million broadband subscribers, the U.S. alone accounts for nearly a third (29%) of the total broadband subscribers in the OECD. Japan with 25 Million is second.

The head of the National Cable and Telecommunications Association argued that it didn’t make sense to compare the larger and more dispersed U.S. to countries whose population density is so much higher and so much more concentrated, so that distribution by broadband is easier. And the OECD figures bear that out… to a degree. The U.S. has a population density of 32 people per square kilometer compared to Denmark’s 126 and the Netherlands 400 and Korea’s 485. Of course, that doesn’t quite explain why Norway with 14, or Finland with 16, Sweden with 20 or Canada with 3 inhabitants per square kilometer still beat the U.S.

As to that other digital divide, NCTA head Kyle McSlarrow testified in committee that broadband is available to 93% of households that could access cable TV service, but that for “economic, cultural and demographic” reasons, many did not. He told the committee that a quarter of Americans (26%) still do not own a computer and that one in five (21%) for some “inexplicable” reason still relied on dial-up even though broadband was available to them.

The head of the group Connected Nation says Kentucky is “on track” to be the first state with 100% broadband coverage. Using a public-private partnership, the group has increased broadband availability and adoption and the ownership of computers at home through programs like its so-called No Child Left Offline. Group head Brian Mefford told the committee that the economic impact has been enormous with an increase in the number of graduates who stay in Kentucky, an increase in the number of out of state graduates remaining in Kentucky and an increase in doctoral degree students staying in Kentucky.

THE WORLD’S MOST VALUABLE BRANDS: It’s official. Google has knocked off Microsoft to become King of the Mountain when it comes to brand rankings. Market research firm Millward Brown says Coca Cola was #2 with Microsoft now #3. Wal Mart came in #4. The top-ranked brand from a non U.S.-based company, according to the report carried on CNN Money, was China Mobile. Nope, me either. Never heard of it. But a visit to its website indicates its total subscriber base is 316 Million.

MEDIA VIOLENCE: I’m sorry but no cute headline on this one. Yes, I know you may have seen this already but I’m including it this week because I thought you might have been as confused as I was – that there was not just one but two reports by two federal agencies scolding the media for not doing more. The Federal Trade Commission found that while the movie, music and video game industries “generally complied with their own voluntary standards” when it come to ratings and label, they still were marketing the violent material on television shows with substantial teen audiences; but interestingly and more critically, the FCC was critical of the viral marketing through social networking sites like MySpace and YouTube.

Meanwhile the Federal Communication Commission re-asserted that exposure to violence in the media increases aggressive behavior and that the various industry efforts to reduce exposure have had “limited effectiveness.” The report says that by the time most children begin the first grade, they will have spent the equivalent of three school years in front of the television set. And the average American household has the television set turned on 8 hours and 11 minutes a day.

The commission said its mandate was to determine what negative effects on children are caused by the cumulative viewing of excessively violent program; what constitutional limits are there on the government’s ability to restrict such programming; and is it in the public interest for the government to adopt a definition of “excessively violent” programming harmful to children. And the answer, with some qualifications and disclaimers, appears to be – Yes, Yes and Yes. FCC Chairman Kevin J. Martin notes that there is a big difference between “real life violence shown in a news story (and) fictional violence depicted for purposes of ‘entertainment.’” (He’s the one who put the word in quotes.) And, yes, this probably deserves more in-depth reporting for a possible later MfM.

MYSPACE NEWS FOLLOW UP: You’ve probably heard/ read that MySpace has adopted a news aggregation service with online users voting for their top story. Of course you have, because it was in last week’s MfM. Anyway, taking the same advice I give my clients – I followed up the story. Well, let’s just say the BBC, MSNBC, CNN or any other news organization for that matter, doesn’t have to worry. Nobody cares! I checked nearly a hundred of the news stories posted. Out of 20 different categories and more than 100 stories, ONLY ONE got a vote – a single vote. And that was the story about Elton John building an art gallery at home. Coalition forces kill 130 Taliban fighters – 0 votes. Iran to attend key meeting on stabilizing Iraq – 0 votes. Cardinals Hancock dies in truck crash – 0 votes. And so on and so on and so on. It may raise questions about MySpace’s plans to hold a so-called Presidential Primary online. Although as a further factoid, Barack Obama has more than 90,000 friends on MySpace, way ahead of John Edwards at 17,000, Hillary Clinton at nearly 8,000, John McCain at nearly 4,000 and Rudy Giuliani – no, sorry, his friend list is listed as private. You must be invited to see his profile.

IT’S NOT HARD BEING GREEN: Despite what Kermit the Frog says. Media trend letter Cynopsis reports more than a dozen “go green” efforts launched after last week’s Earth Day including The National Geographic, Hearst Magazines, the CW, and more. On a personal note, as I sat in the veterinary clinic, more than half a dozen of the magazines from Forbes to Outdoors to Atlantic all had front page articles on the environment. Which all seems to validate the MfM beginning of the year survey which indicated that the environment was going to be the hot topic (no pun intended) of the year.

THE WORLD TRADE DIVIDE: Okay, okay, I know what you’re saying – enough already with Billionaire Warren Buffett. However, considering the lead article in this week’s MfM, I thought his thoughts on world trade are apropos. The Billionaire says he is a “fervent” believer in what he calls REAL trade – “the more the better for both us and the world.” He defines Real Trade as purchases that are reciprocated by sales. In other words, the U.S. sells a Billion dollars in computers to China and China sells the U.S. a Billion dollars in cars. Buffett says we had $1.44 Trillion of this “honest-to-God” trade in 2006, but we had $0.76 Trillion in PSEUDO trade – purchases not reciprocated by sales. The result is that the U.S. is transferring ownership of its assets or I.O.U.’s to other countries. Adding to the problem is that for the first time since 1915, Buffett says, the “investment income” account of the U.S. turned negative in 2006. Foreigners now earn more on their U.S. investments than we do on our investments abroad. “In effect, we’ve used up our bank account and turned to our credit card,” he writes. We’re wealthy enough and have behaved responsibly in the past so that despite all this, Buffett says, Americans will live better ten or twenty years from now. But at some point in the future, he says U.S. workers and voters will find this annual “tribute” so onerous that there will be a severe political backlash and any idea of a “soft landing” out of this is “wishful thinking.”

COCKTAIL CHATTER: A report by research firm eMarketer says the average age of persons who download video from the Internet is 39.4. User generated videos made up 47% of the total online video market in the U.S. in 2006, according to media analyst firm Screen Digest. By 2010, the firm predicts more than half (55%) of all video content consumed online in the U.S. will be user generated, representing 44 Billion video streams. More than 70% of Americans 15 to 34 years old are active users of social networks, according to TNS Media Intelligence. The Fox network show House was the most watched broadcast prime-time show in DVR playback, according to Nielsen Media Research.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Message from Michael -- April 23, 2007

VIRGINIA TECH

SWEEPS

AN MFM MEDIA MATTERS MINUTE

BILLIONAIRES WANTED

BILLIONAIRE’S ADVICE ON NEWSPAPERS

THE BILLIONAIRE BUSINESSMAN’S PRINCIPLES

TAXPAYERS WANTED


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VIRGINIA TECH: Those two words are going to take on an added meaning after the events of last week, just like… 9-11… Columbine… and Oklahoma City. I am not going to add to the avalanche of words written, but I can’t and won’t ignore it. And neither should you. I would urge every news operation to do a self-examination to see if they would be ready to handle such a catastrophic event in their community, and I would urge every member of the media to do a self-examination to define the ethical and moral principles that would guide their coverage. And do it now, before it happens; it’s too late to sort these things out when it happens. Oooh, that’s very preachy of me. Sorry. Let’s go on.

SWEEPS: Yes, here it comes – the May sweeps, the most critical ratings period of the year, the one that will determine your sales department’s future, the most hotly contested time of the year, the… Okay, you get it. Don’t get nervous or anything.

AN MFM MEDIA MATTERS MINUTE: In last week’s MfM, I warned or promised that I would spend much of this week’s report on the world’s 2nd richest man -- Billionaire Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders. There is a wealth of insights and ideas worth thinking about. And just to make it more interesting, I am also including remarks from Fox/ News Corporation chairman Rupert Murdoch’s letter to shareholders. But I didn’t want to ignore some of the media stories from the last week. So, here it is:

Coincidental to the incident in Virginia Tech, the Federal Trade Commission issued a report on media violence that shows ‘improvement’ but indicates the entertainment industry has more work to do. Despite the so-called information revolution, a study by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that today’s citizens’ know about the same as people 20 years about news leaders and major news events. Fewer people could name the vice president, their state’s governor, the president of Russia or knew that America has a trade deficit. More though rightly identified Arnold Schwarzenegger and Hillary Clinton and knew that the Democrats control Congress. MySpace has launched a new aggregation service that will rank news stories and headlines on the basis of user feedback. Controversial broadcaster Al Jazeera which has been unable to get clearance on any U.S. Cable operation, is launching an English-language news channel on YouTube. A survey by consulting firm Accenture found that more than half (57%) of people in the media identified ‘user generated content’ as one of the biggest threats to the global media and entertainment industry. A survey by research firm Zogby International found that more than half (53%) of Americans would replace their satellite or cable TV in their homes with broadband TV if the content were similar. Page views for newspaper websites increased 27% year to year during the second half of 2006, according to Newspaper Audience Data.

BILLIONAIRES WANTED: Buffett is looking for his replacement. Of course the person should have an impressive investment record, but he says they also need to be “genetically programmed” to recognize and avoid serious risks. Underlying this is “temperament” which Buffett says should include independent thinking, emotional stability and, “a keen understanding both human and institutional behavior (because it) is vital to long-term investment success.” Okay, maybe you don’t qualify, but you might qualify for a position on his board of directors which pay upwards of a quarter million dollars. The ‘long-standing’ criteria is that you be “owner oriented, business-savvy, interested and truly independent.” Buffett emphasizes the independence because he says too many directors become enamored of the salary and perks which have soared in recent years thanks to what Buffett jokingly says is corporate America’s favorite consultant – Ratchet, Ratchet and Bingo – which emphasizes things like being a woman… or a Hispanic… or from abroad… when what is needed is someone who thinks “like an intelligent owner.” Buffett facetiously notes that his cynicism about corporate compensation has meant that he has become the “Typhoid Mary” of compensation committees and has never been nominated for the compensation committee of any of the 19 boards he sits on.

To provide some perspective, here are the newest additions to their board. Buffett chose Susan Decker, the CFO of Yahoo, because, he says, she scores well on his four criteria, plus at age 44 is young – “an attribute, as you may have noticed, that your chairman has long lacked.” Murdoch on the other hand chose two: former U.S. Secretary of Education Rod Paige because of his insistence on system-wide accountability and because “his deep knowledge of education will be an asset for a company whose lifeblood is the literacy of its consumers;” and Jose Maria Aznar who, as President of Spain, “enacted a bold array of reforms that catapulted the Spanish economy to the forefront of Europe” and who showed “courage as a leader in the war on terror.”

BUFFETT ON NEWSPAPERS: The fundamentals of the business are eroding. The slide will continue. They’re losing ground in the ‘battle for eyeballs.’ The economic potential of newspaper Internet site is only a fraction of the past performance of newspapers. Yet Buffett says he has no intention of selling his ownership in the Buffalo News. (He also has an 18% stake in the Washington Post group.) And it isn’t because he reads five newspapers a day or that he believes, as he does, that a free press is key to a free democracy. No, it’s because of Principle #11 in his list of Business Principles – he doesn’t believe in “gin rummy managerial behavior” which he defines as discarding your least promising business at each turn. As long as there is a reasonable expectation of cash flow, good managers in place and good labor relations and barring an irreversible cash drain, he says he will hold on to a business. Besides he is hopeful that some combination of print and online activity will ward off an economic doomsday for papers. Interestingly, he predicts that wealthy local citizens – or, as he phrases it -- ‘non-economic individual buyers’ – will emerge as owners, just like the sports franchise owners.

MURDOCH ON NEWSPAPERS: Except for the fact that Murdoch makes no pretense of holding onto under-performing business, his comments about newspapers are remarkably similar to Buffett’s. Murdoch shows some of the same affection, calling the print business “the heart of this company” and he argues that it is much too early to pronounce the death of print media. But there are challenges, as he says, with survey after survey showing newspapers are less integral to people’s lives with each passing year and that younger people are prefer alternative means of getting the news. “Yet,” Murdoch writes, “the hunger for news and information – for content – is not fading. It is intensifying.”

As a side note, News Corporation chair Rupert Murdoch says sporting events – along with live news – are as close to “DVR-proof” as programming gets.

THE BUFFETT BUSINESS PRINCIPLES: In 1983, Buffett set down 13 principles to help shareholders understand his managerial approach. In addition to Principle #11 mentioned above, here are just a few to give you a flavor of his thinking: Our attitude is partnership and (we) think of our shareholders as owner partners… We eat our own cooking (as in he invests in the same companies he recommends)… We use debt sparingly… We will only do with your money what we would do with our own… We feel noble intentions should be checked periodically against results… We will be candid in our reporting to you… As a company with a major communications business, it would be inexcusable for us to apply lesser standards of accuracy, balance and incisiveness when reporting on ourselves than we would expect news people to apply when reporting on others… Despite our policy of candor, we will discuss our activities in marketable securities only to the extent legally required… Good investment ideas are rare, valuable and subject to competitive appropriation just as good product or business acquisition ideas are.

This year, Buffett added in the concept of Intrinsic Value. The simple definition is that it’s the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life. But how to calculate intrinsic value is not so simple and two people looking at the same set of facts with come up with different figures.

THE MURDOCH BUSINESS PRINCIPLES: The principles are laid out during Murdoch’s examination of his cable business. Topping his list – be willing to ignore or even take on conventional wisdom. Just behind that is the admonition to “invest wisely and early in a new business.” Third, be patient as the new effort finds its footing. Fourth, enjoy the growth and profitability as the business matures but always be thinking about and building the next generation of new channel offerings. As Murdoch says, “the elements are simple to understand, if not always easy to implement.”

TAXPAYERS WANTED: To put Buffett’s wealth in perspective, consider this: his company Berkshire-Hathaway will pay about $4.4 Billion in federal income tax on its 2006 earnings. In its last fiscal year the U.S. government spent $2.6 Trillion – about $7 Billion a day. Thus, Buffett notes, his company picked up the tab for ALL federal expenditures (social security, medicare, the armed services) for more than half of one day. He notes that if there were 600 taxpayers like his company, no one else in American would need to pay ANY federal income or payroll taxes.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Message From Michael -- April 16, 2007

The State of Corporate Media – A Special Report

Words of Wisdom From Warren

Don Imus and Katie Couric


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FOREWORD: What started out as a paragraph or two in my weekly newsletter has evolved into this special report. A friend and MfM reader, Steve Smith, gave me the annual report for the Gannett Corporation. That prompted me to look up another which prompted another, etc., until I ended up with this. As part of the annual reports filed by corporations around this time of year, the chairman and/or CEO usually writes a “letter to shareholders” outlining achievements, challenges and issues facing the group and the industry. What follows is a summary of the letters I read from the heads of GE/ NBC-U, Disney-ABC and Fox/ News Corporation, along with Gannett, Media General, Hearst Argyle, Meredith and others. For the record, I couldn’t find anything for some corporations on-line but the most surprising one missing was CBS Corporation.

DIGITIZING FOR DOLLARS: Okay, as a headline, it’s a bad variation of the old “dialing for dollars” but that’s the clear message that comes through from a reading of the letters written by the media titans. Digital. Digital. Digital. Hearst-Argyle says it is “aggressively advancing our efforts in digital media.” ABC-Disney talks about digital activity “expanding the market.” GE-NBCU talks about a $4 TRILLION investment in Infrastructure Technology; and under the heading “digital connections” in its list of six global trends, makes the understatement, “our customers are increasingly using the Internet.” But it follows that up with a sentence that says it all, “digitization facilitates rapid distribution and knowledge transfer to a fragmented customer base.” Gannett talks about the international digital business and has created “Gannett Digital” – “an entity empowered to take the necessary steps we need to grow and attract customers.” The Media General report focuses on the Internet aspects, and it probably tells you something that topping its list of “key internal initiatives” is “creating a dynamic Internet presence in all markets.” Indicative of the importance they attach to it, Company President and CEO Marshall N. Morton devotes the first four paragraphs of his letter to their Internet efforts. Meredith which recently launched the website version of Home and Garden amidst much ballyhoo touts its “extensive Internet presence” as a defining factor for them. Rupert Murdoch, chairman of News Corporation, says, “There is more to this revolution than just the Internet.” He calls it the “digital revolution” and, in his usual under-stated way, says it has the promise of “changing our world as fundamentally as the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions.”

INNOVATE THIS: Next to Digital and Internet, innovate or innovation may be the most popular word in the annual reports. In his letter, Disney CEO Robert A. Iger may be the most prolific user of the word, citing “innovation and imagination (as) essential components… to the company’s future growth,” talking about the employees “creative energy (and) openness to innovation” and says he wants the company to be known for “being contemporary, innovative and willing to take the intelligent risks necessary to carry us into the future.” In a very similar vein, GE CEO Jeffrey R. Immelt says innovation is one of the key factors to creating what he calls “organic growth.” Rupert Murdoch talks several times about the need for an “innovative, entrepreneurial spirit” and speaks glowingly of other innovators. Gannett chairman, president and CEO Craig A. Dubow says the need to “drive innovation throughout the company” is one of their three basic initiatives. The folks at Media General cite “introducing innovative products (that) will attract new readers, viewers and users” as the second most critical internal initiative.

THE CUSTOMER IS ALWAYS RIGHT ON: Most – if not all – of the shareholder letters cited the changing customer paradigm. The customer is defining the terms under which they want to get the news media product. Gannett’s executives talk extensively about being “customer centric.” Media General execs talk about “customer focus” and put it in an even more interesting fashion when they talk about “staying close to the customer.” GE’s Jeffrey Immelt talks about “an enterprise approach to customers” and “improving customer value.” And this may fall into editorial comment more than factual analysis, but I would note that News Corp’s Murdoch may use the word “customer” more in his letter than anybody else, but not as a company focus so much as a revenue target. Also as I said at the start, I couldn’t find the latest CBS report but in its previous one, the company also talked about how “audiences have more ways to see, hear and participate… and receive news and information whenever, wherever and however they choose.”

THE EMPLOYEE IS ALSO RIGHT ON: The importance of good employees was another key theme throughout all the reports. In all candor, sometimes there was a question of how much of it was real and how much was ‘lip service.’ Hearst-Argyle chairman Victor F. Ganzi and president and CEO David J. Barrett actually lead off their letter talking about employees, saying, “yesterday, today and tomorrow, the success of our endeavors is determined by the work of our talented employees in news and content development.” Adding to his list of things he wants Disney to be known for, CEO Robert Iger says he wants Disney to be known for “the quality and integrity of our people and products.” Media General refers to its “7,200 employees who have shown themselves to be innovative (there’s that word, again) and able to respond effectively to a rapidly changing marketplace.”

OTHER THINGS I FOUND INTERESTING: Semi-related to the employee emphasis is a training program taught by… no kidding… GE CEO Jeffrey R. Immelt who puts it in a most interesting way – “this is how we transfer knowledge within GE.” And in what many might find more intimidating than interesting, he says he mandates team leaders to “return to work as a GE zealot or find another job.” He says it has never been more important for people to understand exactly why they work for a company and that’s why they created a team-based training course called Leadership Innovation (there’s that word, again) and Growth. Meredith Corporation puts enormous emphasis on the Hispanic market. It was on the front page of their annual report and it was in the lead paragraph of the letter to shareholders by Chairman William T. Kerr and President and CEO Stephen M. Lacy. Completely unrelated but also in the “interesting” category – to me at least – was the Meredith focus on EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.) Both Gannett and Media General made a big point about Duopoly operations. Gannett chairman Dubow in his letter states it bluntly, “duopolies are smart investments.” Media General chiefs Bryan and Morton make a pitch, clearly directed at the Federal Communications Commission, about the “exploding technology” and – most specifically – the question of newspaper-broadcast cross ownership and convergence. Talking about exploding technology, Murdoch says he “hopes and expects” that in the near future the Internet business will be where the cable business is today. I have mentioned this before in MfM but it’s worth mentioning again: Gannett’s re-definition of newsrooms as “Information Centers.” Board chair Dubow, somewhat poetically and prosaically, describes it as a place, a process and a state of mind. (FYI -- Several of the company’s broadcast brethren have been enlisted to teach their newspaper neophytes how to use video as part of this re-definition.) Not surprisingly but very interestingly, the big companies (GE, News Corp and Disney) put a great deal of emphasis in their reports and letters on the global market while the American-focused corporations emphasized earnings.

THE CHUTZPAH AWARD: Of all the media CEO’s, who would you expect to get this award. Who else? Rupert Murdoch. Not once but twice in his letter, he refers to his company as – “the most innovative and fearless media company in the world today.” On the flip side of that is GE Board Chairman and CEO Jeffrey R. Immelt who took over the job as CEO on September 7, 2001 – four days before the tragic events of 9-11. GE stock went into a “free fall” after that, dropping to $34 a share. He bought 15,000 shares thinking – as he put it – “I love the company and when will it ever be this cheap again.” He answers his own question with a touch of self-deprecating sarcasm – “the answer turned out to be – in 2006.” However, he quickly adds, “this is a long-term investment. There are no short-term tricks.”

BRANDING LINES: As a side note, I thought you might find some of the branding lines used by the various companies interesting. For Media General – We’re long past being just a newspaper or broadcast television company. For Hearst-Argyle – The Next Generation of TV. For General Electric/ NBC-U – This is YOUR GE. For Fox/ News Corp: Imagine the Future… Today. For Gannett – The Information Company. For Meredith Corporation – Delivering Content Across Multiple Media Platforms.

WORDS OF WISDOM FROM WARREN: As in Warren Buffett, the 2nd richest man in the world (behind his friend Bill Gates). The other thing that started me down this road of a special edition look at annual reports was that every year I look forward to Buffett’s “Letter to Shareholders.” It is part of the Berkshire Hathaway annual report. And every year I find it well worth reading and reporting. Who else uses Shakespeare, Ronald Reagan, Winston Churchill, Indianapolis car drivers and slightly risqué jokes in their letter?

Talking about how huge Berkshire Hathaway has become and his concern that big companies tend to become slow and resistant to change, he quotes Winston Churchill, “we shape our buildings, and afterwards our buildings shape us.” Describing his hands-off approach to delegating management responsibility semi-facetiously as taking the easy route, he says Ronald Reagan had it right when he said, “it’s probably true that hard work never killed anyone – but why take the chance?” And talking about his conservative approach to buying businesses without over-leveraging the balance sheet, he quotes an Indianapolis 500 winner who said, “To finish first, you must first finish.”

FOOTNOTE: I plan to devote a fair amount of next week’s MfM to Buffett’s letter to shareholders. Admittedly he is not a media titan (although he owns the Buffalo News and has an 18% holding in the Washington Post) but because I find what he says so fascinating and I think you will too. I will include some of Rupert Murdoch’s observations as well. Their two letters form a management treatise better than most management books.

COURIC AND IMUS: I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the dust-up over radio personality Don Imus’s racist and sexist remarks and the revelation that CBS Anchor Katie Couric’s so-called personal blog was not only not written by her but was plagiarized. As regular readers of MfM know, I try to keep my personal opinion out of these reports and keep them fact-based. However, I would offer an editorial thought, especially after reading Buffett’s Letter. I was struck by the fact that Buffett has some clear underlying personal principles and business principles by which he operates. So, how do these events fit into your personal and business principles? For example, could the Couric situation apply to your operation? And my compliments to Jill Geisler of the Poynter Institute who provided an interesting commentary about the Imus situation, raising the question -- at what point do you feel “uncomfortable.”

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Message From Michael -- April 9, 2007

SWEEPS AND SOPRANOS

NOW YOU SEE IT

THE POWER OF AJAX

THE RACE IS ON

THE WORD IS EXCELLENCE

COCKTAIL CHATTER


We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael. But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.

SWEEPS AND SOPRANOS: They have nothing to do with each other, but I thought it sounded like a good headline. The two big headlines for this week’s MfM – the critical May sweeps is fast approaching and the critically acclaimed Sopranos debuted its final season last night.

NOW YOU SEE IT: And now you see it again… and again… and again. At least, according to a series of reports about streaming video online, you are. Four different reports from four different groups have come dealing with streaming video. International research firm Ipsos, Online research firm comScore/ Video Metrix, marketing research firm eMarketer and one that you may never have heard of, online tracking firm Vidmeter.com. Ipsos reports that just under half (44%) of ALL Americans have streamed some form of video content online with six out of ten (58%) of those Americans with Internet access streaming video. Not surprisingly the numbers are higher for young people. Three in four of all teens 12 to 17 and young adults 18-24 having streamed video last year in 2006. And figures released by ComScore seem to indicate that the number is growing. While the Ipsos report was for 2006, comScore reported that in January of this year ‘unique streamers and downloaders’ totaled nearly 123 Million people or 70% of the total U.S. Internet audience. The comScore figures seem to verify the Ipsos finding that few people (roughly one in seven – 14%) watched full-length TV shows online. The comScore data shows that ‘streamers’ averaged 58.9 streams a month, averaging 151 minutes of online video watching but that meant they were only watching about 2.6 minutes each time. The most popular form of online video stream is news, commentary and sports clips, according to Ipsos, with more than half (51%) having streamed such videos in the past 30 days. Almost as popular are movie and TV trailers with nearly half (48%) streaming them and an almost equally large number (46%) watching amateur or homemade video clips. That last figure is particularly interesting in light of the study by vidmeter.com which says that despite all the hullabaloo about copyright issues on such sites as YouTube, those videos removed because of copyright questions accounted for only six percent of total video views on the site.

Ipsos Executive Vice President Brian Cruikshank says we could be witnessing a “tipping point” in the evolution of digital video offerings online with young people eschewing (I’m sorry, it’s the word that the press release used) more traditional ways to view and acquire video content and turning to digital video on their PC or portable device. Meanwhile, eMarketer reports far fewer women watch video online compared to men, but the numbers are still substantial. The report says ‘only’ two-thirds (66%) of female Internet users watch video online compared to three-quarters (78%) of male Internet users. The executive vice president for comScore, Erin Hunter, argues that marketers could double their primetime viewing by adopting a multi-channel strategy because while ‘primetime’ TV viewing is traditionally between the hours of 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m., the ‘primetime’ viewing of online video occurs during the preceding block of time between 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. (Okay, I know I spent a lot of time on this, but there were, after all, four studies involved.)

On a related note, online video distributor Azureus has launched a video-on-demand site in competition to Joost (mentioned in a previous MfM) utilizing peer-to-peer downloading technology to deliver high definition video from content partners A&E, Starz, BBC and Showtime. And on a further related note, if you ever wondered how to download those videos from YouTube and others, there is a website Keepvid.com which provides a technique to do that.

THE POWER OF AJAX: And I’m not referring to the Greek warrior or to the bleaching cleanser, but to a new Internet publishing technology which threatens or promises (your choice) to change Internet viewing. Ajax stands for Asynchronous JavaScript and XML and is a technique in which a web page or even e-mail can be updated automatically without requiring users to do anything. Publication Mediaweek argues that since the content is updated automatically, there will be less reason to go to other web pages, so therefore there will be fewer page views which is equated (rightfully or wrongfully) with ad impressions. The publication notes that Nielsen/ Net Ratings plans to publish a new “total time spent” metric which will place less emphasis on page views and more on how long is spent viewing. Well, comScore Media Metrix has already adopted a system to measure not only the total visits, but the average minutes per visit and the average visits per visitor. For example, popular website Facebook doesn’t even make it to the top ten when it comes to counting the number of ‘unique visitors.’ Yahoo with 128 Million, Time Warner Network with 118 Million and Google sites with 115 Million are the top three. But when you calculate the average number of visits by each visitor, Facebook jumps into the number two spot with 23.6 visits by each visitor, behind Yahoo with 28.6 visits. In fact the entire top ten list gets restructured with, for example, Weatherbug, which is 48th in terms of unique visitors ranking fifth when it comes to number of visits. I know this all may seem confusing, but the point goes back to an issue raised in previous MfM’s and even the State of the News Media report – measurement. Not just whether a consumer sees a report or advertisement but whether they actually become engaged with, and remember, the report or advertisement.

THE RACE IS ON: The U.S. is ahead, but China is running right behind in one race, but Canada leads in the other race, followed by Israel, South Korea and the United States in fourth place. The first race is the measurement of Internet penetration, arrived at by counting the number of unique visitors aged 15-plus. In this area, according to comScore World Metrix, the U.S. has an astounding 153 Million unique visitors. Think about that. Considering there are ‘only’ 300 Million people in the U.S., that means more than half have visited the Internet. China, which, at 1.3 Billion, has more than four times the population of the U.S., came in second by this measure with nearly 87 Million unique visitors. But there is little doubt the Chinese Internet population will surpass the American Internet population shortly with an annual growth of 20% a year compared to the U.S.’s 2%. The other population behemoth, India, which has a total population of just over One Billion, presently ranks eighth with 21 Million Internet users. India’s total population is growing much faster than China, and its Internet population is growing 33% a year. The next fastest growing Internet population is the Russian federation with just under 13 Million Internet users but with a growth rate of 21% a year. The other race is in average Monthly Hours spent online. Canadians are online 39.6 hours a month compared to Israel’s 37.4 hours, South Korea’s 34 hours and the United States’ 31.6 hours. The world Internet population, measuring those aged 15-plus, in January of this year was 747 Million, up 10% from a year ago.

ANOTHER RACE IS ON: This time between the Internet and other media. According to forecaster ZenithOptimedia, the Internet will overtake radio in terms of ad dollars worldwide by next year. Right now, according to their figures, the Internet is right behind with $31.3 Billion compared to radio’s $36.3 Billion. TV is the big kid on the advertising block with $167.8 Billion in ad spending compared to newspapers’ $126.2 Billion and magazines $56.4 Billion. The agency says the good news for TV is that demand has picked up and instead of its first-ever sustained period of market share loss, TV expenditure globally is forecast to go up. The even better news for the Internet, according to the report summarized in Advertising Age, is that the Internet will account for nearly 9% of global ad spending by 2009 and should reach double digits in the next decade.

THE WORD IS EXCELLENCE: No doubt you’ve heard about the Peabody Award winners, but I just wanted to send my compliments on to the local TV stations cited: WTNH in New Haven, KMOV in St. Louis and the unusual citation for two stations in the same market – WTHR and WISH in Indianapolis. I am proud to have been associated with two of the stations – KMOV where I worked and where I still have friends and WTHR, a former consulting client. The Peabody is awarded under the auspices of the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication which I am also proud to be associated with. And for what it’s worth, I would encourage other local TV stations to submit. The criteria is both simple and profound, and can be summed up in one word – Excellence.

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Monday, April 02, 2007

Message From Michael -- April 2, 2007

IT’S ALL A MATTER OF SEMANTICS

WEB VERSUS PRINT – ROUND TWO

WEB VERSUS TV

YOUTUBE AWARD WINNERS

A LIST OF LISTS

A LIST OF PEOPLE

COCKTAIL CHATTER


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IT’S ALL A MATTER OF SEMANTICS: Except that it’s not. The experts call it the Semantic Web, but we would probably call it Web 3.0. In my never-ending effort to keep you not just one or two steps ahead of the curve but three and four, I think this is something you should know about. You’ve already heard about Web 2.0, a term coined by Webmaster Tim O’Reilly. It’s the next generation of the web and is defined as the social networking, wiki’ing (if that’s a word, and it isn’t) and collaboration which takes place on the Internet and which turns the Internet into a new platform and business model. (The big word for this is folksonomy.) But Web 2.0 isn’t a change or update to the Web, although many people seem to confuse it with that; it is simply a change in the use of the Internet. Semantic Web is an update. If I haven’t lost you yet, let me use one name – Tim Berners-Lee. The person credited with inventing the Web says the Semantic Web has the potential of creating a sea change even greater than the original Web. Now, let me see if I can explain it. The magic of the Web as it exists now is the hypertext linking where you can go from point A to B to C and even to Z to the Nth degree. But all those links are to documents and websites. The Semantic Web will actually correlate data and cut across documents and websites to the actual data. So, instead of a web of documents there will be a web of data, as Berners Lee explained it. All data linked and correlated to establish patterns. Okay, I know this is all a little heavy, but what the heck… A year from now you’ll be able to say you heard it here first.

Completely un-related but I couldn’t figure where else to put it, one of the founders of Wikipedia has created a new Wiki project titled Citizendium. They’re calling it a “citizens compendium of everything” – like Wikipedia, but the difference is that this time there will be “gentle expert oversight” with contributors using their actual name. This comes after the revelation that a Wiki editor who claimed to be a professor of classics was a hoax.

WEB VERSUS PRINT – ROUND TWO: And the winner is the web. And I’m not talking about the well-known development in which online news use is growing while print news use is shrinking. A study by the Poynter Institute has implications for anybody producing for the Web. Contrary to the popular belief that people online have short attention spans, the study shows that people read more much more of a story when it’s online than they do when it’s in print. Readers will actually read 77% of an article when it’s online, but ‘only’ 62% when it’s published in the classic broadsheet newspaper format and even less (57%) when in a tabloid format. The researchers at Poynter used software which actually tracks eye movement when someone is reading. It showed that while three-quarters of print readers are methodical readers, online readers are evenly split 50-50 between those who read in a methodical fashion and those who scan articles. Regardless of which type they are though, once they fix on an article online more people read it all the way through. The study also showed that people understood a story better when it was broken out into elements, like Q&A sections, timelines, sidebars and lists. Online readers also liked navigation bars and teases. Not surprisingly, readers paid more attention to ‘documentary’ news photos – real people doing real things – than staged photos; and color photos got more attention than black and white photos while mugshots got relatively little attention.

WEB VERSUS TV: On-air the ratings race between the big broadcast networks has Fox in first place in the season to date, followed by CBS, then ABC and NBC. But on-line it is a different story, according to reporter James Hibberd writing in TVWeek.com. On-line ABC.com and NBC.com are in a dead heat for first place with 9 million unique visitors a month, according to Nielsen/ Net Ratings. They’re followed by a distant CBS.com at 5.6 million and an even more distant Fox.com at 3.7 million. The CW which launched in September and did not have a measurable website until October averages 1 million. But in a separate article, Hibberd notes that all of the networks are planning to ramp up their online offerings dramatically.

YOUTUBE AWARD WINNERS: Just in case you missed it, here’s the list of the first YouTube award winners. They range from the weird to the wonderful. You should be able to control-click or copy and paste them in your browser: Most Creative - OK Go: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv5zWaTEVkI Most Inspirational - Free Hugs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vr3x_RRJdd4 Best Series - Ask a Ninja: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEmss2lg-ug Best Comedy - Smosh: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCd_i7wW87Q Best Music- Terranaomi: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARHyRI9_NB4 Best Commentary - The Winekone: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-rcjaBWvx0 Most Adorable Video - Kiwi!: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdUUx5FdySs .

On a related note, two video websites: First is theointment.com which is the online video version of the news parody website The Onion, and veryfunnyads.com which, as its name implies, has some funny, very funny and not so funny ads. And don’t let your general manager see you visiting these sites, although I guess we could make the argument that news people and marketing people should watch them… just to keep up with trends.

A LIST OF LISTS: The magazine Wired in its latest issue talks about how we have become a bite-sized entertainment culture. In particular it notes how we all seem to want things shortened and in lists. It humorously refers to the Ten Commandments as the “Biblical PowerPoint.” Here are five websites cited by the magazine as some of the best list of lists websites: Tenspotting.com, which lets you compare your top ten list to other people’s top ten choices for everything from movies to TV shows to (showing its origins) Japanese female celebrities; Allconsuming.net, which lists what books/music you should consume next; Tadalist.com, which allows you to create a to-do list that you can share online; list of bests.com, which bills itself as ‘what you need, when you need it’ for everything from public records to airline tickets to ‘things to do before you die’; and finally, 43things.com which asks what you want to do with your life (your 43 things) and shows how that compares to, at last check, 947,327 people in 12,113 cities.

A LIST OF PEOPLE: As long as we’re talking about magazine articles, in a previous we showed a partial list of most influential people on the Internet from PC World magazine. Here are a few others from that list: Lawrence Lessig described as the ‘Elvis of Cyberlaw’ because of his ‘kinglike status in the field’ is a professor at Stanford University Law School. He is also CEO of Creative Commons, a nonprofit aimed at promoting an alternative form of copyrighting which allows greater use and distribution for online works. David Farber started Interesting-People.org as an e-mail mailing list for friends and colleagues and turned it into “the mother lode of online mailing lists” with commentary from influential people. Farber is a professor at Carnegie Mellon University and former chief technologist for the Federal Communications Commission. Robert Scoble is the guy who got into trouble for blogging about the Microsoft Empire but whose blogs eventually convinced the company to make blogs part of the company’s communication with users. He now heads PodTech.net. On the legislative side, PC World says Oregon Senator Ron Wyden is one of Capitol Hill’s “most influential voices on technology issues.”

COCKTAIL CHATTER: Tiny Holland has the tallest people in the world at an average 6 ft., 1 in., according to a report on ABCNews.com, which says Americans at an average 5ft., 10 in., haven’t been the tallest people in the world for 50 years. An adult-oriented business on virtual world Second Life was sold on e-Bay (where else) for $50,000, according to Information Week. ICANN, the agency which oversees the Internet and domain names, turned down a request (for the third time) to create a XXX domain extension for porno sites after both the adult entertainment industry and religious groups objected. Nearly half of Americans (48%) say they are more likely to vote for a candidate if they had military service while just slightly less, four out of ten (39%), say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who is ‘Christian,” according to a Pew Research Project poll. The Pew Research groups weekly list of top news items of interest found that Iraq was the dominant story of interest to the public (29%) and got the most coverage (21%). The missing boy scout was cited by 12% of the public as a story they followed closely even though only 2% of the news coverage was devoted to the story. And the story about the firing of the U.S. Attorneys got 18% of the news coverage but only 8% of the public were following the story closely.

PERSONAL NOTE OF CONGRATULATIONS: To friend (and MfM reader) Russ Mitchell, anchor and reporter for CBS News who has been named anchor for CBS This Morning and who will be filling in all this week for Katie Couric on the CBS Evening News.

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