Message from Michael - March 30, 2009

Message From Michael                                         

                                                                                                                                    March 30, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

      IT’S NOT YOUR SON’S FACEBOOK ANY MORE

      BORN BUT NOT BRED IN THE U.S.A.

      UP, UP AND AWAY WITH VIDEO

      WHITHER GOEST MYSPACE

      THE CHIEF TWEETING OFFICER

      THE LIFE SPAN OF A TWEET

      THE BIGGEST LOSER GETS LOST

      BEAM MY NEWS UP, SCOTTY

      FLATULENT PHONES

 

We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line. 

      IT’S NOT YOUR SON’S FACEBOOK ANY MORE:  Nope, it turns out that Facebook is turning into your father’s Buick, with the majority of Facebook users over the age of 25.  The 18-25 group still make up the single largest block with more than a third of the users (35%), and the 13-17 teenage crowd still accounts for one in every ten users (11%).  But time marches on, with the over-35 crowd on Facebook more than doubling in just the last two months, according to Facebook tracking site, insidefacebook.com.  There were 6.8 Million new Facebook users added in the 26-34 age group which now comprises a quarter (24%) of all users and an astonishing 7 Million new users added in the 35-44 age group which now comprises one in every six Facebook users (17%).  By comparison, the 18 to 25 age group added less than half each of those age groups (2.3 Million) while the teen group added barely a Million.  And for all my fuddy-duddy friends who have befriended me on Facebook, you’ll be happy to know that your peers are joining in force as well, with 2.3 Million new users (bringing the percentage up to 5% of the total) in the 55 to 65 demo and 3.6 Million new users (now up to 8%) in the 45 to 54 demographic.  Again, a reminder, those are the numbers added JUST in the last two months.

      BORN BUT NOT BRED IN THE U.S.A.:  As surprised as I was to find out (as reported in a previous MfM) that significantly more than half of the Twitterers (60%) come from outside the U.S., I was even more surprised that the latest statistics show that nearly three quarters of Facebook’s users (70%) come from outside the U.S., according to the insidefacebook website.  Translated another way, there are twenty countries where one in ten of the population are Facebook subscribers.  Meanwhile, another website, allfacebook.com, says that Facebook is expected to have officially crossed the 200 Million user mark this past weekend and that it should pass the 300 Million mark by the third quarter of this year.  As a footnote to the footnote, I should note the semi-controversy over the redesign of the Facebook website, the report that Facebook is considering offering its own ‘virtual’ currency a la Second Life and that Microsoft may be making a run at Facebook for…drum roll, please… $50 Billion.

      UP, UP AND AWAY WITH VIDEO:  Online video watching has jumped “massively,” year to year, according to comScore chairman Gian Fulgoni, who says it is up 60%.  In addition, he told an OMMA conference, the time spent viewing has jumped, if not massively, at least significantly, with viewers watching an average five hours a month albeit at only 3.5 minutes per video (although that also is up.)  Also joining the Superman leap up and away is Hulu which, according to the latest comScore figures, moved up to fourth place in the top ten rankings of video properties, with a 42% increase month to month.  Of course, Google with its YouTube site leads the pack with more than 5.3 Billion video views during February of the more than 13.1 Billion total videos viewed during February.  After that it drops dramatically, with Fox Interactive Media second (463Million views and 53.8 Million viewers), Yahoo third (353 Million views and 41.8 Million viewers), Hulu fourth (333 Million and 34.7 Million) and Microsoft’s various sites coming in fifth (259 Million).  In all, three quarters (75.5%) of the total U.S. Internet audience viewed online video at some point.

      WHITHER GOEST MYSPACE:  As a side note to all this, the question comes up – what happened to MySpace?   As a personal observation (or, as a research friend of mine used to say, my focus group of one) I can’t remember the last time I received an invite or a piece of forwarded material from MySpace people.  It’s still there, of course.  The comScore report says it had 41.2 Million viewers who watched 384 Million videos.  An article in The Telegraph newspaper notes that MySpace now has less than half (124 Million unique viewers) on average than Facebook (276 Million uniques).  Even more critically, that represents an actual two percent decline in viewers.  Apparently MySpace remains “marginally ahead” of Facebook in the U.S., according to the report, but TechCrunch co-editor Michael Arrington notes that less than a year ago, the two were the same size.     

      THE BIGGEST LOSER GETS LOST:  Data compiled by TiVo of time-shifted viewing shows that NBC’s The Biggest Loser is more likely (45%) to be viewed live while ABC’s Lost is more likely (27%) to be viewed a week or more after it airs than most other shows.  So, what does that tell you?  Or the fact that Fox’s American Idol gets its highest ratings (8.4) for viewing that is live, plus one day. So, what does that tell you? The analysis shows that the percentage of people watching a day later more than doubles the percentage of people watching live.  For example, ABC’s The Bachelor is watched by 40% of its audience either live or within an hour, but when you add in another day of time-delayed viewing, that number jumps to three-quarters (75%) of all its viewers.

      BEAM MY NEWS UP, SCOTTY:  According to comScore, the number of people accessing news daily on their mobile has more than doubled in a year to year comparison.  Based on a three month average, comparing January of this year to January of last year, comScore says the numbers jumped from 10.8 Million to 22.3 Million people who access news daily while the number of mobile users who access news in general (meaning at least occasionally during a month) jumped by three quarters, from 36.8 Million to 63.2 Million.
      

      FLATULENT PHONES:  As noted in a previous MfM, the iPhone has an incredible 25,000 applications available with an even more incredible 500 Million downloads.  Some estimates put it much higher, according to websites apptism.com and appcraver.com, both of which are solely devoted to finding and reviewing iphone applications.  The fact that that there are two websites devoted just to tracking the iPhone apps says something.  Anyway, we started down this track after reading that one of the top ten paid applications, a top “breakout hit,” is an application called iFart which, for 99 cents, enables your phone to emit a variety of noises simulating flatulence.  As a New York Times article noted, flatulence humor has been a staple since William Shakespeare wrote about it in The Comedy of Errors.  On a considerably more serious note, one of the top apps on iPhone (which, for the record, I don’t own) is Sully’s Flight which simulates the landing of the Airways jet by pilot Chesley Sullenberger into the Hudson River.  Amazingly, The Oregon Trail which I can remember playing eons ago is one of the top ten paid apps.  One of the top ten free applications is one that converts your iPhone into a dog whistler able to transmit anywhere from 8,000 to 22,000 Hz.

As a side note, and just to add a factoid note to all this, research firm AdMob Mobile Metrics says the iPhone alone accounts for half of ALL mobile web traffic from Smart Phones in the U.S.  Less than half a year ago (August, 2008), the iPhone accounted for only 10% of all such traffic.         

      THE CHIEF TWEETING OFFICER:  It’s hard to believe that Twitter founder Evan Williams was once so broke that he stayed up all night at one point checking his couch cushions for change to buy coffee.  His first business attempt ended with a lot of mad employees and Williams owing the I.R.S. a lot of money.  That tidbit along with several others is buried in a New York Times Sunday Business section profile of Williams who likens the founding of Twitter to a “well-orchestrated accident.”  Twitter was a side project to his original business, ODEO, which finds video and audio on the web, just like Blogger was a side project to another of his earlier businesses, Pyra Lab.  Of course Blogger was sold to Google for un-told amounts and, as we noted in our previous MfM about Twitter, many are speculating that Twitter will be sold to Google.  In Williams’s self-effacing article, he says he’s “always suffered from hallucinogenic optimism.”

As a side note, Odeo has a link on its page to Tweet Week, a compilation of twitterings.  Whoop-de-do, right?  Except here’s what’s odd.  The latest edition is more than two months old.  And as a foot note to the side note, several MfM readers have noted that it seems there are a number of ‘negative’ articles have been written about Twitter lately.  True?  Not true?

      THE LIFESPAN OF A TWEET:  Five minutes.  That’s it.  A test run by website fuelinteractive.com shows that companies that companies that tweet an announcement with a link about a funny video or article got virtually all of their response in the first five minutes of the tweet.  After that…nothing.  As the website authors note, a tweet may lAst ‘forever’ in search.twitter.com, but in reality if they (your semi-faithful followers) don’t catch it at the start, it’s gone.  Their advice, as a result, is that if you want to have impact, you have to tweet regularly and tweet often because “you market to a parade, not a standing army.”  Yeah, I know, it took me a while to figure out what that meant, too.

      WELCOME NEW MEMBERS:  We continue to add new subscribers every week to Message from Michael, and I appreciate each and every one of you.  But I have to say that my best new subscription request came from Patti Wilson of pattiwilson.com who referred to it as “outrageously great.”  Gotta love that.  You also have to love any one who uses the Wizard of Oz in her blog.

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

State of the News Media - Summary

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        March 23, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

 

      THE STATE OF THE NEWS MEDIA – A SPECIAL REPORT
 

 

We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line. 

 

      INTRODUCTION:  The sixth annual report by the Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism is, as the authors readily admit, the “bleakest” of the reports.  In large part that is because it examines in detail… lots of detail, the economic battering that the media has taken and continues to take.  One is tempted to say that the study is not so much a report on the state of the news media, as it is a report on the state of the advertising media.  And possibly rightfully so.  If total spending on advertising falls, as predicted, in 2009, this will be the first consecutive three year decline in advertising spending since the Great Depression.  As the authors put it, the problem facing journalism is not so much an audience problem or a credibility problem as a revenue problem. In their words it is “the decoupling… of advertising from news.” 

      OVERVIEW:  Two other themes emerge from the report.  One is that the move to a digital, online world has changed from a migration to an acceleration.  It is a race for survival, according to the report, with the news industry having to re-invent itself sooner than later, using the revenues of the ‘old’ media to seed potential future revenues of the ‘new’ media.  The problem is the new media platforms account for so little of the revenue now.  In newspapers, the dead tree technology of print still accounts for more than 90% of the dollars crossing the transom.  In television, online ad revenues still account for only two percent of a station’s revenues.  So, how do you pay for online newsgathering when online revenues are so low?  What makes it even more challenging is the fact that the amount of online advertising available is abundant – meaning rates are low.  The second theme is that the media agenda which had already narrowed down in 2007, narrowed down even more in 2008.  Just two stories -- the presidential election and the economic crisis -- accounted for more than half of what the authors inelegantly call the media “newshole.”  And, again, maybe rightfully so.  The presidential election was “historic” and the economic crisis was (or is) “profound”, so “lopsided” coverage may be expected.  But when three out of every five minutes of cable news coverage, for example, is devoted to the one topic (elections), it raises questions.  Of course, it was a successful strategy for cable.  They were the only ones to show growth in 2008 (a whopping 38%), but the report notes they did it with “the narrowest news agenda of all media.”  Coupled with the media’s short attention span (a story one week doesn’t make news the next), and the economic staffing strains, the report raises the question whether the narrow focus is strategic or systemic.  Regardless, the result is “more outlets seemed to have resulted not in coverage of more things, but more coverage of a few things.”       

      PARAPHRASING MARK TWAIN AGAIN:  You know what I’m going to say.  His famous quote – reports of my death are greatly exaggerated. Well, the authors say the idea that “traditional journalism” is on the brink of extinction is also overstated.  For example, newspapers are the poster child of the dead media movement, but the authors note that newspapers still make $38 Billion, have double digit profits, sell more than 48 Million newspapers daily and employ 45,000 people.  Of course that last number is counter balanced by the fact that by the end of this year, the study says newspapers will employ 20% to 25% fewer people than they did in 2001.  In other words, as much as one in four jobs gone in less than a decade.  And that $38 Billion.  It was $49.3 Billion two years earlier.  But here’s the number that threw me – in 2008, stock prices for newspapers fell 83%.  In 2007, the latest year for which figures are available, there were 795 English-language commercial televisions doing news, a 10% increase from the year before, with a station in the top 25 markets making an average $77 Million a year and even the smallest stations making $4 Million a year.  And local television is still the most popular source of news.  Of course, counter balancing that is that local TV has had the greatest loss.  A decade ago, two thirds (64%) of Americans said they were regular viewers.  That number has dropped to little more than half (52%). But maybe the most notable argument for ‘traditional’ media comes from examining news websites.  While all news and information websites were up seven percent, the top 50 news websites (associated with mainline media) were up 27%.

      NEW MEDIA VERSUS ‘OLD’ MEDIA:  Even though the report calls 2008 a “watershed year” for the Internet as a source of news, with more people citing it as a primary source for news, the report raises questions about its role.  Paradoxically, the report notes, despite the public reliance on the Internet for news, the public gave the Internet particularly low marks for credibility.   Citizen news sites which the report says “gained some steam in 2008” remained “far from a substitute for legacy (meaning traditional) media.”  As the report notes, their range of topics is narrower, the sourcing thinner, and the content is often not updated even once a day.  Online news ventures started by what the report calls “refugees of the mainstream press” (people who have left their traditional jobs for whatever reason), while showing some solid journalism, are limited to niche areas of interest and are reliant on philanthropic funding.  For those reasons, the report says these sites may be able to “fill in the gaps of vanished journalism” but are unlikely to replace the industry entirely.  (The report makes the point several times in various areas that it is questionable whether online revenues can support the kind of newsgathering we have associated with traditional news operations.)  Paradoxically (OK, I just wanted to use that word again), so-called legacy media sites actually do a better job of involving citizen participation and interactivity than the so-called citizen journalism sites and even more so than the so-called citizen blogging sites.  In short, the report says the “new media in aggregate” are a long way from compensating for the losses in coverage in traditional newsrooms. 

      FACTS TO KEEP IN MIND:  When considering the website component of your operation.   More often than not (50% vs. 41%), when people get news online they do so by following links to arrive at a news site, rather than going directly to the home page of a favorite news organization.  This relates to another point made in the report.  The real growth online is in search advertising, but “no one has figured out how to combine search advertising with news.”  Some numbers to add to that argument.  Nearly half of Americans (47%) have emailed a news story to a friend.  That’s more than double what it was in 2006.  (20%).  A quarter (22%) have customized web pages that include news.  And one in six Americans (15%) receives e-mail alerts for news.        

      SAME AND DIFFERENT NOTES:   In an echo of a finding from the previous year’s report, the study found virtually no difference between the three networks in terms of content.  In fact, an analysis of news stories showed that the Big 3 agreed on nine out of the ten top stories for 2008.  In actual fact, there were bigger differences between the morning newscasts and the evening newscasts than there were between the network evening newscasts themselves.  Again, an echo of the previous year’s report.  For example, the morning newscasts had as much as 10% more Presidential election coverage than the evening newscasts.  Even more interesting, the report says cable news operation have the same difference between the morning and evening programs, but in reverse.  The prime time programs are one of the main reasons that the cable news analysis showed such a narrow agenda, because the hosts focus on one or two big stories (mainly the election) and that’s it.  Or, as the report authors put it, prime time cable closely resembles talk radio with pictures.  Equally interesting (to me, at least) is the difference between the networks television operations and their web operations.  The web operations showed more diversity in content.  For example, the election represented a quarter of the online content compared to a half on cable.  The economic crisis got significantly more play online than on air, and the same goes for the Iraq war.        

      NOT TO BE IGNORED.  The two other areas of the report are radio, which the report says, should now be referred to as audio, and magazines.  The changing reference to radio is in part because of the digital transition and the number of options now – terrestrial radio, HD radio, satellite radio, Internet radio, cell phone radio and podcasting.  The report notes the number of people citing radio for news continues to diminish, but the numbers for talk radio still remain high.  News/talk radio is the second most popular format, just behind country music, and it might be #1 except for country music’s popularity in the south.  Newspapers may be in “free fall” as the report says, but for news magazines, it is closer to total collapse.  The report particularly cites U.S. News and World Report, Newsweek and Time as examples of that.  But the report also notes that niche magazines for an “elite” audience are doing better, although still struggling.  In that area, the report cites The Economist, The New Yorker and The Atlantic.  Another two other areas covered in the report are Alternative Weeklies and Ethnic Media.  In previous reports, these areas had shown better prospects of growth than the other media, but this year, both appear to have joined the others in falling victim to the economic malaise.  Both areas started heading toward more online efforts which is a change from the past, but with unclear results. 

      JUST TO ADD PERSPECTIVE:  Let’s look at some basic numbers, keeping in mind that as of March, 2009, the Census Bureau reports the U.S. population is just more than 306 Million.  Okay, so we’ve already talked about the 45 Million newspapers delivered daily.  The total circulation in 2008 for the three news magazines cited is 7.95 Million.  For the three niche magazines, it’s 2.23 Million.  As a side note, The Week magazine, which is a compilation of news articles from around the world, had a circulation of half a Million.  The three Network newscasts averaged 22.8 Million viewers nightly.  (That is a drop of 273,000 from the year before, but that drop is significantly lower than the 1 Million audience drop-off, the newscasts had been averaging every year.)  Cable news averaged 3.5 Million viewers on an average night in 2008, which as noted earlier, was a substantial increase over the previous year.  During daytime, cable averaged 1.86 Million viewers.  The cumulative audience measurement (which counts any viewing, even for a few minutes, in a month-long period) reached 192 Million.  With 700 news websites and two different measuring services (comScore and Nielsen) using different methodologies, the numbers for Internet news use become somewhat slippery.  However, just taking the numbers for the top ten news sites, the average unique monthly visitors was a low of 187 Million (comScore) or a high of 226 Million (Nielsen).  The report makes the point that the percentage of Americans who relied on the Internet regularly for news (39%) is now roughly similar to that who regularly watch cable for news.  Rating service Arbitron reports that radio ‘reached’ 235 Million people over the course of a week in 2008.  Because of the varying platforms for “audio,” the numbers get a little squishy.  But, as an example, National Public Radio has 26.4 Million news listeners weekly which, if local NPR programming is included, goes to 31 Million.  Local television news numbers are difficult to decipher at a national level, but the Project for Excellence in Journalism says its analysis shows the total audience in February (the highest month for numbers – something I didn’t know) for the local evening news was 9.8 Million, and for the late local news, 9 Million.  In May, which TV people will tell you is the most important ratings period, the evening newscasts averaged 8.2 Million while the late newscasts averaged 8.7 Million.  Mornings averaged about half that number.             

      THOUGHTS TO PONDER:  These are some of the statements spread throughout the report that caught my attention.  Each line probably deserves a page of discussion, but we don’t have that. In any case, here they are, in no particular order: 

Powerful structural shifts brought on by digital technology have allowed those who want to reach consumers to do so without the news media as intermediary.  The expansion and innovation is coming from those outside the traditional news industries.  People have a greater amount of trust in the paper or TV they use, but not the ‘generic’ media.  Civic life will be poorer if the current trends in news investment simply run their course.    The press as an institution failed to function as an early warning system on the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression.  The average citizen seemed more attuned to the early rumblings underneath the financial landscape than the journalists.  (A reference to the fact that most journalists admit missing the coming economic crisis while public interest stats showed Americans were talking about this before the reporters.)  Power is shifting to the individual journalist and away, by degrees, from journalistic institutions.  Consumers are gravitating to the work of individual writers and voices and away somewhat from institutional brand.  The appeal of a news organization in the future increasingly will be not just the content it produces but also the package of information it assembles from multiple sources.  Most of what we know about the new President came from his campaign rather than from media enterprise.            

      COMMENTARY:  In addition to being the “bleakest” report, this may also be the weakest report.  It may be my bias, built up from six years of reading these reports and six years of reading studies and surveys from hundreds of other organizations, but much of the report fell into the category of things-we-already-know.  Yes, things are bleak and the drop-off in circulation/ratings/viewing coupled with a drop-off in revenue, compounded by an economic ‘imperfect’ storm, makes the future scary.  But tell me something I don’t know.  The short shrift given social networking is partial evidence of that deficiency.  Much of it is interesting and much of it is significant, but too much of it is not.  That may explain why the study appears to have received less coverage than previous reports.  At the very least, it provides me an excuse for why it took me so long to write this summary.

      DISCLAIMER:  The report breaks out into 13 sections, amassing 160,000 words.  I boiled that down to 25,000, and from that, distilled it even further into these 2,600-plus words.  Unfortunately, unlike the distillation process that takes place with a Jack Daniels, the result may not be a sweet essence but a sour distortion.  It is still massive and this summary does not do it justice.  So, despite my questions about the report, expect more on the state of the news media in future newsletters, especially about mobile.    

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

Message from Michael - March 9, 2009

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        March 9, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

      TWITTER GOES ROCKIN’ ROBIN

      THE INTERNET BIG PICTURE

      THE INTERNET LITTLE PICTURE

      COCKTAIL CHATTER –THE BEATLES

 

We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line. 

 

      TWITTER GOES ROCKIN ROBIN:  To steal a line from the old Rock and Roll song, it seems like it’s true that every little bird, every little bee loves to hear the Robin go tweet-tweet-tweet.  And not just in the U.S. either.  According to Twitter’s own stats site, most of the tweets come from outside the U.S. (60%) – meaning of course, that less than half of Twitter’s traffic (40%) is in the U.S.  Even more interesting, the most twittering country in the world after the U.S. is Japan with 39% of the total International traffic, which means it accounts for a fourth (23.4%) of ALL Twitter traffic.  That may explain why Twitter recently received an additional $35 Million in unsolicited funding.  Let me repeat the word – unsolicited.  Twitter folks said they didn’t need it, but figured they might as well take it.  There is speculation that part of the reason is that Google may try to buy Twitter.  And it’s easy to see why.  The phenomenon has spawned a whole sub-industry of applications and sites tracking twitter.  The rumored Google buy-out may also be the reason why Twitter bought Summize.com and turned it into its own Twitter search engine (search.twitter.com).  There’s also twitterfall.com which provides a cascading screen of tweets which can be used to track any subject you choose.  There’s tweetvolume.com where you can enter a word or series of words to see how often they appear on Twitter.  There’s tweetscan.com, which highlights the most popular Twitter topics (Rush Limbaugh led the list when I checked.)  There’s tweetmeme.com which tracks the most popular links on Twitter every five minutes.  (A comic website called xkcd.com was popular when I checked.)  There’s tweetdeck.com which takes the “abundance of information” (i.e. tweet feeds) and breaks it into sub groups so you can catch up with your ‘overnight global twitterings.’  There’s tweetfind.com where you can find Twitters and add your own Twitter. 

That has developed into a sub-industry of the sub-industry – building up the number of your Twitter followers.   Mostly it’s businesses doing this, but it’s also individuals.  Web analytics firm Omniture has added a twitter tracking element to its Site Analyst software for businesses.  Digital brand management firm Electric Artists has started a Twitter tracking service of the top media, entertainment and consumer products on Twitter.  The leading media brand, my friends at CNN will be happy to know, was CNN Breaking News where the killing of an Illinois pastor had an incredible 419,992 followers at the time I checked.  Of course, to put it in perspective, Britney Spears had 321,464 followers even though the folks at Electric Artists noted that her tweets were updates by her staff and not the real thing, like Ashton Kucher (266K) or Shaq O’Neal (261K).  Leading the brand list when I checked was Zappos.com, an online retail store that started out as a shoe store and which had a whopping 198,421 followers. (And I hadn’t even heard of it.)  That number may be as much proof of the power of Twitter as anything else.  Columnist Phil Johnson argues in Advertising Age that Twitter is the next ‘disruptive technology,’ changing the established business model for advertisers and businesses. As he notes, Twitter has had write-ups in all the major media in the world.  There’s even a consulting firm, focused just on Twitter – pistachioconsulting.com, which promises to “turn micro-sharing into macro results.”

I know I have devoted a lot of this MfM report on Twitter, but the reason is that I am just stunned about how fast it has taken off.  I was one of the first people to report on it and I can remember thinking (like most other people) that it was just a weird idea.  You get a sense that even founder Evan Williams is still stunned.  In a talk at the TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) Conference, he said “this seemingly trivial concept (that)… let’s people feel more connected” was originally designed as a “broadcast medium” but that the users had re-shaped it into much more.  During the San Diego wildfires, not only did people in the area use Twitter but so did the Los Angeles Times and even the San Diego Fire Department.  It became wildly popular in Atlanta when people used it to let others know about gas stations with lower prices during the gas shortage.  And considering that a Korean BBQ Taco Truck (no, I’m not making this up) creates huge crowds in Los Angeles just by Twittering its next location; that one developer has created an application where the baby in a pregnant woman can telegraph its first kick by Twitter; that another developer has created a Twitter application that let’s a plant tell its owner that it needs to be watered, it is understandable when Williams tells the conference attendees, “I have no idea where Twitter will go next.”

      THE INTERNET BIG PICTURE:  Nearly a quarter of the world’s population (23.5%) is on the Internet.  That translates into 1.574 Billion Internet users out of a total world population (as of December 31, 2008) of 6.710 Billion people.  The fastest growth, since the website internetworldstats.com started keeping figures in 2000, has come in the Middle East (1,296%), closely followed by Africa (1,100%), while the greatest penetration is in North America with three quarters (73.1%) of the population online; and of course the largest Internet population is in Asia with more than 650 Million Internet users.  The actual number of Internet users in the Middle East is just under 46 Million while Africa has just more than 54 Million.  North America has nearly 247 Million users which is significantly lower than Europe (390 Million) but then again, Europe’s population is significantly higher (804 Million) so its rate of penetration (48.5%) is significantly lower than the U.S.

As reported before in MfM, China has the largest population of Internet users (253 Million), although one of the lowest penetration rates (19%) followed by the U.S. (220 Million and a penetration of 72.5%).  But in third place is Japan where, also, three quarters (73.8%) of the country’s population (127 Million) is on the Internet (94 Million.)  Fourth places goes to India with 60 Million users but a penetration rate of slightly higher than five percent.  It’s followed by Germany (52 Million and 63.8%), Brazil (50 Million and 26.1%), the U.K. (42 Million and 68.6%), France (36 Million and 58.1%), South Korea (35 Million and 70.7%), Italy (35 Million and 59.7%) and Russia at 11^th place (33 Million and 23.2%).  Not surprisingly the smallest countries have the highest broadband penetration rate with Bermuda (36.5%) leading the pack, followed by Netherlands (32.8%), Denmark (31.8%), Iceland (29.3%), Switzerland (28.5%), Liechtenstein (28.1%) and Monaco (28.1%) with the U.S. in 19^th place (21.4%).

As a side note, the United Nations agency, the International Telecommunications Union, reports that there were 4.1 Billion ‘mobile subscriptions’ as they put it, at the end of 2008. That’s four times the One Billion number in 2002.  And as a footnote and sort of plug (I guess), the website mentioned – http://www.internetworldstats.com – has some great resource material on maximizing your Internet marketing efforts.

      THE INTERNET LITTLE PICTURE:  It occurs in the offices and homes of people everywhere. And when it comes down to that, the average person surfing the Internet spends less than a minute viewing any one web page, according to data compiled by Nielsen Online.  That’s even though they spend more than an hour, on average, during any surfing session each month.  The explanation may be that even though the folks at Nielsen Online say their data from last year shows that people spend around 38 hours on the Internet at home (an important distinction) on average, they are visiting upwards of 1,600 web pages each of those months.  Just to make this even more confusing, the study says people average 36 visits a month and visit about 62 domains.  Yeah, I know, lots of numbers, and somewhere in there, is some meaning.

Okay, a little less confusing, and equally interesting is Nielsen’s so-called Three-Screen Report, or as they like to label it, the A2/M2 study.  Part of this you may have already heard or read about.  For example, Americans watch an average 151 hours of Television a month, based on the fourth quarter of 2008.  By comparison, they spent less than one fifth that time (27 hours) on the Internet.  And of that, they spent less than three hours (2:53, to be exact) watching video online.  And despite all the hoopla about DVR’s, Americans did not spend that much time (7 hours and 11 minutes) watching time-shifted TV.  Nielsen reports that the number of homes with DVR’s does though continue to grow with nearly a third (29%) of American homes now time shift capable.  Candidly, I couldn’t figure out why there was more mobile video viewing (3 hours and 42 minutes) than Internet video viewing (2 hours and 53 minutes), until I re-read the report and saw that these are the “early adopters” using mobile video.  Those early adopters are growing, with 11 Million Americans using mobile video – an increase of 9% from the previous quarter.  Lastly, the most interesting statistic I found was that Nielsen says nearly a third (31%) of Internet activity occurs when the person is watching television.      

      COCKTAIL CHATTER:  The Wall Street Journal reports that MTV is going to release a video game based on The Beatles.  The “Rock Band” video game will be released in September (along with instruments modeled after the ones used by the band), and represents the “first foray” into the digital world for the group, which the newspaper notes, has kept its music away from digital distribution outlets like iTunes.  And if that isn’t enough Beatles cocktail chatter for you, The New York Times reports that Liverpool Hope University in the boys’ hometown is going to offer the world’s first Master’s degree in Beatles studies.  Times writer Alan Kozinn who wrote the book “The Beatles” says he is surprised by the number of young people who know so much Beatles material (including, I could add, one of my daughters).  He admits it may be strange to consider what a graduate with a master’s in Beatle studies could do with such a degree, but he argues it could be useful not just for musicians but for students of social studies trying to understand the times.

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

Message from Michael - March 3, 2009

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        March 3, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

      THE FECKLESS, FACILE, FUTILE NEWS MEDIA

      CANARIES, MOSQUITOES, NUDISTS, AND SNOW WHITE

      THE BUFFETT BAILOUT BLUES

      FACEBOOK’S FAMILY FEUD

      MORE FACEBOOK FACTOIDS

 

We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.

 

      THE FECKLESS, FACILE, FUTILE NEWS MEDIA:  Three different reports on the news media – most particularly the so-called ‘traditional’ news media and three different, but similar, words to describe them.  It’s not often that one gets to use the word ‘feckless’ in a sentence, but that was the word that came to mind after reading the We Media/ Zogby Interactive poll which found that Americans are “deeply dissatisfied with the leadership” being provided by traditional media.  Nearly three quarters (71%) said they are ‘not very’ or ‘not at all’ satisfied, leaving about a quarter (27%) who are satisfied – which was less than half (56%) of those who said they were satisfied with online media leadership.  Government (74% dissatisfied) and business leaders (81%) fared worse.  Instead the survey says two-thirds of Americans (63%) believe small business owners and entrepreneurs along with science and technology leaders (52%) “will lead the U.S. to a better future.” The results were presented at the WeMedia conference hosted by the University of Miami School of Communication and organized by iFOCOS, described as a Reston, Virginia-based ‘media think tank.’  Founder Andrew Nachison argues that “news media must lead” if there is to be a “purpose to the endeavor.”  I should note that the group found a parallel problem when they did the survey last year, finding that two thirds of Americans (67%) believe traditional journalism is out of touch with what Americans want from their news.  I should also note that the survey is based on an interactive poll conducted with 2,497 people recruited online “to express your own unique views, hopes and opinions on an array of topics.” 

Another study, this one done by two professors at Indiana University, found that despite the oft-repeated accusation of liberal media bias, that in fact, the news media in Presidential elections actually favored the Republicans.  Professors Maria Elizabeth Grabe and Eric Bucy say in their book, Image Bite Politics, that the ‘volume’ of coverage focusing on just one party actually favored the Republicans, although they note that when they examined the ‘duration’ of  the actual stories, there was no indication of favoritism.  The telling point, according to the news release by the University, came when they studied the ‘visual coverage’ with the volume turned down.  Here they looked at the “lip flap” effect where the reporter’s narration is laid over the candidate talking, and which they say is one of the most negative images, as well as the “goldilocks”  effect in which one person is given the last say in a piece and is thus better remembered by viewers.  In their research, Democrats were more likely to be ‘victims’ of the lip flap effect while Republicans most often had the benefit of the last word.  Republicans were also less likely to be shown in the ‘unflattering perspective’ of an extreme close-up and more likely to be shown from a low angle camera shot, which has been demonstrated to ‘attribute power and dominance.’  Meanwhile, the unabashedly, admittedly liberal group Media Matters for America accuses the media of being too ‘facile’ (my word) in its coverage of the ‘economic recovery’ legislation.  The group says it reviewed 203 hours of Sunday morning talk shows along with 12 cable networks.  Of the 722 guest appearances, only 41 were with economists.  That represented only six percent of all the interviews, which was the same as the five percent the group found in its previous study.  The result, says the group, is that the coverage has been marred by “conservative falsehoods and misinformation.” 

      CANARIES, MOSQUITES, NUDISTS AND SNOW WHITE:  They’re just some of the topics in financier Warren Buffett’s latest letter to shareholders.  The canary-in-the-coal-mine was the manufactured home debacle which Buffett says should have been a warning to the conventional housing market.  The “two hungry mosquitoes in a nudist camp” is how Buffett describes himself and the CEO of GEICO as they see opportunities in the auto insurance industry.  And Snow White? Well, that refers to the insurers of tax-exempt bonds who had a good thing going but then got greedy.  He says their problem was, in the words of Mae West:  “I was Snow White, but I drifted.” 

It seems like everyone else in the media world has discovered financier Warren Buffett after we’ve been writing about his letter to shareholders in MfM for five years now.  Excerpts from his newsletter warning about the dire financial situation facing the nation have been featured on numerous cable and network news shows as well as newspapers.  So, nothing for me to report, right?  Wrong. First off, aside from the great quotes, some great advice on why his company Bershire-Hathaway is consistently successful: By maintaining a “Gibraltar-like financial position” with excess liquidity and modest near-term obligations; widening the “moats” around his businesses to give them “durable” competitive advantages; acquiring and developing new and varied stream of revenue; and expanding and nurturing a cadre of outstanding operating managers.  Buffett goes to great lengths throughout the letter to compliment his various C-level managers.  How many other CEO’s do that?  How many other CEO’s also admit that they did “some dumb things” as he admits he did with some investments.

      THE BUFFETT BAILOUT BLUES:  As so often noted, Buffett is not your typical CEO.  In fact, he doesn’t seem to think much of most CEO’s especially those who have become dependent on federal aid because “weaning these entities from the public teat will be a political challenge.”  He also has another reason that makes him, and those of you angry over the bailout, even angrier.  Even though Berkshire is one of only seven corporations in the United States to have the highest credit rating possible (Triple A rating), his cost of borrowing is far higher than his competitors with ‘shaky balance sheets’ because they now have government backing.  Want another?  Buffett tells how nine days AFTER (let me repeat that word – AFTER) the CEO and CFO of Freddie Mac resigned in disgrace, the federal agency allegedly responsible for overseeing the two bureaucracies (OFHEO) reported “both enterprises were financially sound and well managed.”  Buffett notes it wasn’t until four years later that the overseeing agency issued a scathing report that “blamed the fiasco on every party but – you guessed it – Congress and OFHEO.”  Buffett’s analogy is that such groups are like someone trying to avoid venereal disease:  “It’s not just whom you sleep with, but also whom they are sleeping with.”  From this “irritating reality,” as Buffett puts it, comes The First Law of Corporate Survival for ambitious CEO’s – “Modest incompetence simply won’t do; it’s mindboggling screw-ups that are required.”   Despite all this, and despite his concerns about “unwelcome aftereffects”, Buffett says the government had to do something because the consequences otherwise would have been cataclysmic.

      FACEBOOK’S FAMILY FEUD:  The world’s most popular social networking site underwent a civil war after its terms of service.  No doubt, you’ve probably heard all this by now.  I admit I should have mentioned this in last week’s MfM.  It’s still worth re-visiting because of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s blog about the issue (http://blog.facebook.com/blog.php?post=54434097130 ), in which he, more or less, admitted to a mis-step and spun it that the controversy helped “highlight the importance of these issues and their complexity.”  He says privacy and information sharing “is a big focus for us this year” and promised to “post some more thoughts on open-ness.”  It was also worth re-visiting because of a claim by a Chinese social networking site that it is in fact the world’s largest social networking site.  As reported by VentureBeat and China Web 2.0, the site – Qzone – had more than 200 Million monthly active users in January.  That is far larger than the 175 Million claimed by Facebook, although even that is in dispute.  Website MarketingVox cites recent comScore data that shows Facebook at 221 Million visitors at the end of the year and that number was actually behind Google-owned sort-of social network Blogger with 225.5 Million visitors.

      A FEW FACEBOOK FACTOIDS (OR THE ALTERNATIVE TO COCKTAIL CHATTER):  There are more than 400,000 developers working on different apps for Facebook around the world.  More than 10 Billion photos have been uploaded to the site.  Interestingly, as website TechCrunch.com notes, Facebook was running neck and neck in terms of the rate of photo uploads (at roughly 20 Million) with the two other major competing sites – Photobucket and Flickr.  But by January, Facebook had leapt ahead (33.6 Million unique visitors in the U.S. alone) compared to Photobucket (22.8 Million) and Flickr (21.9 Million).  Worldwide, now, Facebook averages more than 87 Million unique photo visitors.  What happened in September?  Facebook did a redesign of its website, adding a photos tag to everyone’s personal homepage.  YouTube’s Chad Hurley can spout some pretty startling statistics of his own.  He told the Davos World Economic Forum that 15 HOURS of video are uploaded to his website every MINUTE.  BTW, President Barack Obama remains the top Facebook page with 5.5 Million fans.

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.