Message from Michael - May 26, 2009

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        May 26, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

      GOVERNMENT AND/OR THE MEDIA

      TELEVISION GORILLA GETS BIGGER

      COCKTAIL CHATTER –TRACTORS, ELVIS AND THE WORLD’S OLDEST BLOGGER

 

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      GOVERNMENT AND/OR THE MEDIA:  One could, if one were cynical, say there is a role reversal going on.  It seems the government is going to be the watchdog on the media instead of the other way around.  And, no, I am not violating my rule of avoiding opinion and sticking to facts.  Let me explain.  First, the Federal Trade Commission has announced that it will be holding a series of workshops asking the question – Can News Media Survive the Internet Age.  The news release raises the question whether television and radio along with newspapers can cope with the development of targeted behavioral and other online advertising as well as online news aggregators and “other factors.”  The workshops, starting September 15, will look at business models as well as non-profit models for news organizations, as well as copyright protections and even exemptions from antitrust regulations because of “these unique circumstances.”  The point, according to FTC chairman Jon Leibowitz is that the news business is different from other businesses because of “the First Amendment values at stake.”  Interestingly and maybe/ maybe not coincidentally, communications lawyer Matthew Leibowitz (whom, as far as I know, is no relation to the FTC Chairman) has raised the same concerns about the future of the First Amendment in a letter to the Federal Communications Commission.  The second Leibowitz warns that a fallout of the financial crisis could be government control of more than just the television licenses.  This may be a little technical, but I am going to try and explain it anyway – Leibowitz says what has happened is that bank loan covenants require the broadcast businesses to maintain a certain ratio of revenues to the amount of debt and value to debt.  Technically, and legally, in today’s financial climate, those covenants are being breached.  He says broadcasters have to either restructure their loans or default on them.  He says the FCC needs to protect banks’ interest in broadcast properties if it wants to protect the First Amendment interests of the country. 

The other issue raising questions about the government/ media watchdog relationship centers on the so-called Fairness Doctrine which required (note the verb tense) holders of broadcast licenses to “present controversial issues of public importance and to do so in a manner that was (in the FCC’s view) honest, equitable and balanced.” (Wikipedia).  There are two bills in the House and Senate titled the Broadcaster Freedom Act of 2009, “to prevent the Federal Communications Commission from repromulgating the fairness doctrine.”  Acting FCC Chairman Michael Copps says the fairness doctrine issue is a dead issue and not worth discussing.  Not according to Brent Bozell who heads the conservative Media Research Center whose mission is to “balance… the strident liberal bias of the news media.”  Bozell’s group calls the Fairness Doctrine the “anti-free speech censorship doctrine.”  He says several members of Congress have called for its reinstatement of the doctrine and he has called for a “full, fair up or down vote” on the Broadcaster Freedom Act.

Add to all this the BIAfn’s conference called Winning Media Strategies held this week.  As reported by David Oxenford in his Broadcast Law Blog, participants were told that broadcasters and publishers alike have to provide “unique service to their communities in order to survive in the competitive media marketplace.”  There was particular emphasis put on maximizing the use of your ‘digital assets’ to do this.  Similar to the points made above, Oxenford notes that “the superservice to local needs would be coming from someone – broadcaster or not – as a result of marketplace developments, not because of any government mandate.”  The University of Southern California’s Adam Clayton Powell III is quoted as saying, domination of the local online and digital media marketplace was “the broadcasters to lose.”  If you would like to read Oxenford’s excellent summary, it is at http://www.broadcastlawblog.com/2009/05/articles/public-interest-obligationsloc/localism-without-government-regulation.

As a footnote to all this, President Barack Obama has made media and public engagement and openness a key issue in his administration.  In a memorandum issued to the various heads of federal departments and agencies shortly after taking office, he said his administration is “committed to an unprecedented level of openness in government.”  He told the heads:  Government should be transparent; Government should be participatory; Government should be collaborative.  And he ordered the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to coordinate the development of an Open Government Directive.             

      TELEVISION GORILLA GETS BIGGER:  So, of course, right after I sent out last week’s special MfM on television, several more studies came out, further championing the cause for television viewing.  The biggest one is Nielsen’s Three Screen Report which showed that ALL television viewing is up, and which I admit you may have already heard about, but it’s worth repeating.  More people are watching (284 Million first quarter this year versus 281 Million in the same period last) and watching for a longer time (153 hours this year versus 150 hours last) in home.  More are watching timeshifted television (79M this year versus 58M last) and again for a longer time (8 hours versus 5 hours).  More are using the Internet to watch (163M versus 158M) and again for longer periods (29 hours versus 28 hours).  And, finally, more are watching on their mobile devices (13.4M versus 8.8M) but this time for just about the same time (3:37 versus 3:42).  Also, as reported in MediaLife, those DVR’s used for timeshifted TV viewing are actually proving a boon to television networks.  For example, people with DVR’s are watching an average of 2.5 episodes of Grey’s Anatomy versus 2.1 episodes for those without.  During the new season peak period in October and November, DVR-equipped homes provided the networks an average 10.4 rating compared to a 6 in summer and an 8 the rest of the year.  As for commercials, the article quotes Bruce Leichtman of Leichtman Research Group who says that while 90% of DVR users say they SOMETIMES fast forward through commercials, nearly half (44%) say they do watch the commercials.  That compares to about two thirds (64%) of non-DVR households who say they either flip the channel or leave the room when a commercial comes on.  As Leichtman points out, people were switching the channel or hitting their remotes long before DVR’s came on the scene. 

Finally, a third report, this one by global research firm OTX for MTV International, finds that television is still the most effective way to market to young people.  The worldwide study found that a quarter of the 12 to 24 year olds surveyed say they first see or hear about brands from TV while nearly two thirds (60%) say television plays a role in their brand choices.  To put a little balance in this though, it should be noted that three quarters (71%) say the Internet makes choosing a brand easier and that blogs, review sites and social networks are growing in importance.  As the authors explain it, ‘brand image’ matters more on TV while ‘information and validation’ matter more online.  An interesting twist to the study is that young people in India are much more likely (87%) to research purchases before they buy, compared to German (80%), the U.K. (63%), Japan (60%) and in last place – American youth (58%).  The study titled A Beta Life Youth also found that most young people ‘trust’ TV channels.  Oddly, only a third or so (38%) of young people in Japan say they have a ‘favorite’ TV channel, which is far lower than India (88%), US (80%), UK (73%) and Germany (70%).  Lastly two thirds of the young people (62%) say they are more likely to watch a TV channel if it has a website that allows them to catch up on programs.            

      COCKTAIL CHATTER:  A special die-cast version of the John Deere tractor that Elvis Presley used at his Mississippi ranch will soon be available for your purchasing pleasure.  It’s based on the actual 4010 model tractor which has been rebuilt by students at Northwest Mississippi Community College in Senatobia and now on display at the Elvis Presley Automobile Museum at Graceland in Memphis.  The news release by John Deere makes special note that the model includes a 46A loader, “an accessory rarely found on die-cast collectibles.”  A telecommunications company in Nigeria has re-designed all its ugly microwave towers to look like beautiful Palm Trees.  As reported by barely intelligible reporter Martin Lindstrom for AdAge, the move has become so popular that the Palm Trees have become the company’s symbol.  A Spanish great-grandmother, Maria Amelia, who called herself ‘the world’s oldest blogger’ has died at the age of 97.  She started blogging two years ago when her son gave her a blog (because, she says, he was stingy) for her birthday.  Her blog turned out to be hugely popular, getting more than 1.5 Million hits, according to several newspaper accounts.  In actual fact, what was probably ‘the world’s oldest blogger’ was an Australian great-great-grandmother named Olive Riley who died last year at the age of 109.  She blogged using videos on a site dedicated to older people called growingbolder.com.

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

Message from Michael - May 20 - The Television Gorilla

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        May 20, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

      TELEVISION – THE 600 POUND GORILLA

      NOW YOU SEE IT; NOW YOU DON’T

      THE MISSING SCREEN

      LEAN FORWARD; LEAN BACK

 

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      TELEVISION – THE 600 POUND GORILLA:  Not one, but several studies have been released recently showing that mainstream television is THE mainstay of the American media diet.  The top study is the Video Consumer Mapping Study done by Ball State University’s Center for Media Design for the Council for Research Excellence.  In short, it showed that no other media comes even close to television when it came to daily reach (94%) or daily duration (5 hours and 31 minutes).  Even among the media-savvy 18 to 24 year olds, live television watching alone accounted for more time (210 minutes) than all of the so-called “second screen” use, which, adding up web-surfing, emailing, IM’ing, software use and the meager two minutes of video use, ‘only’ totaled 164 minutes.  A survey by a pair of youth oriented groups confirms the higher interest in television.  Online quiz company Pangea Media and YPulse which describes itself as ‘the leading media platform for youth’ say their survey of their own teen and tween audience found that two-thirds (64%) prefer to watch live television versus the quarter (26%) who prefer DVR’s and the 11% who watch online.  However, as a point of balance, when asked to give up TV or the Internet, three quarters (76%) said they would give up television. 

And if that isn’t enough, another study by the prestigious Advertising Research Foundation will gladden the hearts of my television sales brethren.  Its analysis of nearly 400 case studies found that TV ads are not only as effective as ever, but may in fact be even more effective in increasing sales.  The analysis said the number of units sold per various items increased as the number of television impressions increased.  Yet another study, this one by media planning and research firm McPheters and Company, showed that net recall of TV ads was twice that of magazine ads which, in turn, had a recall almost three times that of Internet ads.  The study tested people watching the various ads in a laboratory setting and then asked them questions afterwards.  A caveat of sorts, the Internet ads were Banner Ads, not Internet video ads, and the study, using eye tracking software, showed that two thirds of the web users (63%) didn’t even see the banner ads.  But still the same point about effectiveness of TV ads was shown in an analysis of personal care products by TNS Media Intelligence which showed that companies that cut advertising during a recession lost market share to private labels – and market share they didn’t regain.  Most particularly, the analysis cited research by a University of North Carolina professor that showed companies maintained or hiked ad spending – particularly TV spending – lost limited share.

And if that isn’t enough, proof that every cloud has a silver lining, research by the good folks at Frank Magid Associates for the Hearst-Argyle group showed that 99% of the people surveyed said they are tuning in as much or even more to local television news, to keep track of the economic news.  One in six said they were watching television more (16%) and going to the Internet more (17%).  Similar to the McPheters study, those surveyed said they pay more attention to TV ads than magazine ads (57% versus 43%), TV ads over newspaper ads (64% versus 36%), TV ads over radio (72% versus 28%) and TV ads over the Internet (85% versus 15%).  Finally, if that isn’t enough, it turns out that happiness is not, as the Beatles song says, a warm gun, but rather a warm TV.  A series of studies by the University at Buffalo and Miami University of Ohio has found that watching TV can drive away feelings of loneliness and isolation.  The four studies carried in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology found that people felt less lonely when watching TV, that writing about their favorite TV programs aroused “belongingness needs”, that they expressed fewer feelings of loneliness after writing about their TV programs, and that just thinking about their favorite TV programs proved a buffer against “drops in self esteem.”

      NOW YOU SEE IT; NOW YOU DON’T:  In all candor this could have been headlined – now you understand it; now you don’t.  The point is… it’s a little confusing.  The Video Consumer Mapping Study cross-examines the issue of “concurrent media exposure.”  In other words, are people watching other media or doing something else when watching TV, online or listening to the radio.  And if so, is the media the sole focus of attention, the primary focus of attention or the secondary focus of attention.  As the report says, concurrent media exposure isn’t a phenomenon restricted to 18 to 24 year olds; it is a phenomenon for the 18 to 54 year olds as well.  In this area, television wins hands down again.  Television was more likely (80%) to be the sole source of media attention, meaning people only watched it and nothing else.  Television was also more likely to be the primary source of media attention, meaning there may be other media being used but the prime focus is on the television.  What was somewhat surprising is that people are more likely to be using “any print” as their second media of choice when watching television, not computers as we’ve been told so often.  And when the computer is their ‘primary’ focus, the second choice is not television but “any phone.”  However, by way of balance, in the Pangea Media study cited earlier, teens and tweens said they were multi-tasking when watching TV, either going online (78%) or text messaging (66%). 

      THE MISSING SCREEN:  You’ve no doubt heard references to the “three screen” description of media viewing – television, computer, and mobile phone.  Actually, the report says there is a fourth screen – environmental, as in movie screen ads, TV’s in stores and GPS screens.  In fact when you add these ‘out of home TV minutes’ into the equation, they amount to ten times as much video viewing as video on the Internet and video on the mobile phone combined.  In fact, when it comes to watching video in general, 99% of the time is spent watching it on the TV or DVR.  Watching video on the Internet (when you’re only doing the three screen approach) accounted for less than half a percent of the time spent and watching video on a mobile device accounted for only one tenth of one percent. 

Again, by way of balance, we should note a report by Microsoft about European video viewing that may be a harbinger for the U.S.  That report predicts that by next month European Internet consumption will reach 14.5 hours compared to 11.5 hours for TV.  Also Nielsen Online reports that online video viewing passed a milestone in March with the average viewer consuming three hours per month for the first time.  It says viewers are spending more time watching full-length episodes and longer-form shows.               

      LEAN FORWARD; LEAN BACK:  Another reference you’ve probably heard used, and which popped up several times in the various readings.  The contention is that television is a ‘lean back’ medium, meaning you are further from the screen, sitting back, just hitting the remote; and also implying it is a more passive, non-interactive medium.  Personal computer use on the other hand is a ‘lean forward’ medium, meaning you are closer to the screen, using the mouse; and implying it is a more interactive and engaging medium.  Several of those quoted in regard to the Ball State University study say the video consumer mapping study shows those lines are becoming more blurred.  Several new technological developments are further blurring that line.  For example, Adobe is developing a TV version of the Flash video player normally associated with computers and the Internet.  The result, according to observers, will be the ability to watch more web-based video on TV.  Chip maker Intel has partnered with online service Yahoo to create “TV Widgets” – mini-apps that appear as icons on the screen and connect to the web.  TV maker Samsung has already come out with a TV widget equipped set and Sony and Vizio are expected to follow shortly, according to PCWorld magazine.  In an article headlined PC/TV Convergence: turn on, tune in, log on, MediaWeek reporter Adrian Pennington makes the somewhat obvious statement that the key to bringing the Internet to TV is to strike the balance between the viewing differences of television and the computer.  He says the BBC iPlayer has led the way by bringing online TV viewing into the mainstream.  Research firm In-Stat says 40% of ‘young adult’ US households view Internet video on the TV once a month now, and predicts Web-to-TV streaming devices will generate $3 Billion in revenue by 2013.  In a statement so obvious that it borders on stupid, an In-State analyst says once Web-to-TV video becomes “simple and convenient, mass adoption will follow quite rapidly.”

      FINAL FOOTNOTE:   The VCM study was based on actual observation of people during the day – 376 people over two full days, once in the Spring and once in the Fall.  The study authors contend this is much more accurate method measurement than the questioning of people as to what they remembered or thought they did.  The council members questioned the idea that people under 30 were all watching Internet video and not TV, that the 30-second spot is dead, and that everyone is record TV on their DVR’s instead of watching.   And the report appears to show they were right to question those assumptions.    

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

Message from Michael - May 4, 2009 - The Future

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        May 4, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

      NEWSPAPERS VERSUS TELEVISION

      THE DIGITAL FUTURE VERSUS THE INTERNET FUTURE

      THE U-S VERSUS THE WORLD

      WORLD INTERNET STATISTICS

      DIGITAL FUTURE FACTOIDS

      INTERNET FUTURE FINDINGS

      THANK YOU

 

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      NEWSPAPERS VERSUS TELEVISION:   A report by the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School of Communication makes the case that newspapers are “back in the breaking news business” for the first time in 60 years, and by implication competing against what has been television’s main strength.  In its recently released eighth annual Internet survey by the Center for the Digital Future, center director Jeffrey I. Cole says “the path to the end of the printed daily newspaper” has accelerated faster than anticipated.  The report says that one out of five (22%) of Internet users have stopped their print subscription, and that worldwide, statistics show that when Internet use reaches 30%, newspaper use begins to decline.  That’s why Cole says newspapers need to move into the digital realm with a solid business plan if they are to succeed or survive.  Oddly enough the report summary (caveat – I couldn’t afford the full report), says that weekly reading of newspapers online is at the highest level ever in the digital future series of reports but that the level of trust in news pages posted by traditional media is at the lowest level ever in the history of the digital future report.

A caveat here:  The study doesn’t actually draw a battle line between television and newspapers over breaking news.  That is my hypothesis, based on research and consulting recommendations for television stations.  But to bolster that point, I would note an interesting observation from visiting all of the network news websites.  All of them start with the headline:  breaking news.  Then they add whatever other element they think is important to viewers.  For example, abcnews.com headlines its website with online news and features, along with breaking news; cbsnews.com is just breaking news headlines; foxnews adds latest news to its breaking news headlines; and nbcnews.com adds weather and business to breaking news.

      THE DIGITAL FUTURE VERSUS THE INTERNET FUTURE:  Despite all the hoopla about social networking, the digital future survey says only 15% of those surveyed belong to an “online community.”  And most of them say it is related to a hobby.  In fact I was so surprised that I questioned the authors who responded with the exact question:  are you a member of an online community that shares thoughts or ideas, or works on common projects, that does not exist offline?  The respondents can include whatever they choose, the authors say.  Although it is not included in the summary, the authors say social networking is addressed in the full report.  The report summary does say that slightly more than half (52%) believe the Internet is important in maintaining social relationships.  Interestingly the social networking phenomenon is not mentioned in another similar report, The Future of the Internet, by Elon University and the Pew Internet and American Life Project.  In this, the third of a series of reports, “experts” and “stakeholders” are surveyed about possible scenarios for the 2020.  Instead it talks about ‘augmented reality.’  More than half of those surveyed (56%) say people and organizations will spend some part of their waking hours – at work and at play – in what is called virtual worlds, or ‘augmented reality’, the ‘metaverse’ or the ‘geoWeb.”  In the scenario painted, the authors pose the idea that “this lifestyle involves seamless transition between artificial reality, virtual reality, and the status formerly known as ‘real life.’” Think about that statement for a minute.  Anyway, in a very similar vein, more than half of those surveyed (57%) also believe that by 2020, few lines will divide professional time from personal time and that work and play are “seamlessly integrated in most of these workers’ lives.”  Yeah, I know, many of you are saying that’s true now.

      THE U.S. VERSUS THE WORLD:  An earlier report of the Digital Future center shows many similarities but some differences between how Americans use the Internet versus people in other countries.  The World Internet Project finds, for example, while half of Americans (52%) believe that information on the Web is less reliable, substantially more people in urban China (70%), Sweden (64%), Canada (62%) and Australia (60%) question the reliability of Internet information.  In all of the World Internet Project countries, except one, two thirds of users say the Internet is an important or very important source of information.  Which is the one exception?  -- Sweden.  Why?  I don’t know.  The United States and the United Kingdom have the highest percentage of people who buy online weekly (18% for the U.K. and 14% for the U.S.) or monthly (47% for the U.K., 46% for the U.S.)  And while one in ten online users in the U.S. (12%) never buys online, nine out of ten Internet users in Colombia never buy online.  In nine of the WIP countries, one in five non-users (22%) say they don’t go online because they don’t know how or they are confused by the technology.  Health information is still a top topic online everywhere in the world.  It is particularly high in Israel and urban China where more than half (55%) go online for information.  Interestingly, urban China had the highest percentage (30%) of people going online weekly to view or download video.  By comparison, the U.S. is half that (17%). 

      WORLD INTERNET STATISTICS:  Since we’re on a world kick, a quick update on recently released Internet statistics worldwide.  One in every four persons in the world (23.8%) is now online, according to Internet World Statistics website.  That translates into 1,596,270,108 persons out of a world population of 6,710,029,070.  The largest number of users is in Asia with 657 Million.  The highest penetration rate is in North America with 74.4%.  The fastest growth in percentage of users is the Middle East with a growth rate of 1,296.2%.  And while Asia has the largest number of users, it has the second lowest penetration rate (17.4%), significantly better though than last place Africa (5.6%).  And while North America has the highest penetration rate, it has the lowest growth rate (but a still substantial 132.5%). 

      DIGITAL FUTURE FACTOIDS:  The amount of time Internet users spend online has grown each year of the report, reaching an average of 17 hours a week in the latest report.  But, the report notes, there is a huge difference between heavy users who spend an average 42 hours online and light users who spend an average 2.8 hours online.  The report still finds a small but significant percentage of Internet non-users.  The difference this year is these non-users are less likely to go online with only a third (36%) saying they have any intention of doing so – which is down significantly from the nearly half (46%) of the year before.  But another group, which the report dubs Internet Dropouts, shows an increased interest in returning to the Internet.  So… go figure.  Nearly one in four American homes have at least three computers while one in seven (15%) have no computer at all.  Just under half of the Internet users (44%) post photos online, but, more significantly, that is four times the number of people who did so a little more than five years ago in 2003.  A significant percentage of Internet users (44%) say they are ignored because another member of the household spends too much time online but even more (48%) say they are ignored because of television watching.  And although quite a number (28%) of adults say their children spend too much time using the Internet, the report says a larger percentage of adults say their children spend too much time watching television, and an even larger percentage of adults say their children spend the ‘right amount of time’ online.

      INTERNET FUTURE FINDINGS:  Not too surprisingly, four out of five experts and stakeholders surveyed (81%) say the mobile phone will be the primary connection for most people in the world by the year 2020, and that with its increased computing power the phone will be the only Internet connection for a majority of people by then.  Also not too surprisingly, two thirds (67%) agreed with the scenario of people talking to their computing devices in public and even ‘air-typing’ on invisible keyboards.  Somewhat surprising, the vast majority (81%) says that despite all the current talk about IPv6 and www2 next generation Internet, next-generation research will be used to improve the current Internet, rather than replace it.  Also despite all the current talk about copyright issues, two thirds (61%) doubt that copyright controls using new technology will be in place and enforced.  More than half (55%) disagreed with the scenario painted of greater social tolerance evolving because of the wider exposure to others brought about by the Internet.  The group was evenly split (44% agreeing, 45% disagreeing) over whether people will be more open to sharing their personal opinions, information and emotions by the year 2020.

Disclaimers:  The Internet Future report has been out for some time, but received little coverage.  So, in light of the digital future report, I thought it was worth re-visiting.  Also, in the interest of openness, I am one of the 1,196 “experts” and/or “stakeholders” surveyed.        

      THANK YOU:  To all those people who responded to the personal perspective Message from Michael sent out last week.  I don’t know that I have ever had that amount of response to a message ever.  As I often say, I try to make these messages fact-based and avoid opinions and commentary.  But sometimes there are things that need to be, or should be, said.

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.