Message from Michael - September 28, 2009

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        September 28, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

      AN ONLINE VIDEO FLOOD WATCH

      I DON’T WANT TO BE ALONE

      AND THE AWARD GOES

      COCKTAIL CHATTER - DEATH

 

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      AN ONLINE VIDEO FLOOD WATCH:  At least that’s what appears to be happening, according to figures from Internet backbone provider Cisco.  In four years time (2013) the company says 90% of all IP traffic will be video.  Going even further, the company’s VP of ‘video product strategy,’ Malachy Moynihan says 60% of all video will be ‘consumed by consumers’ over IP networks.  Computer chip maker Intel says that in six years time (2015), more than 12 Billion devices will be capable of connecting to 500 Billion hours of TV and video content.  The company’s CTO, Justin Ratner, says that translates into more than one TV-cable device for every man and woman on the planet.  By the end of next year, analyst firm Screen Digest says there will be 1.2 Million 3D capable TV sets in American homes and in four years time (yes, 2013), that figure is expected to rise to 9.7 Million or 8% of all households.  This all came out of Intel’s Developer Forum held in San Francisco and reported by the BBC online.  A separate report, the Consumer Internet Barometer, says that one in four U.S. households (25%) watch TV online.  That’s up from one in five (20%) last year, according to the report put together by The Conference Board and TNS.  And, of course, leading the pack is Hulu which has shown a fourfold increase (from 8% to 32%) over the past year.  The report says two-thirds of ‘online TV viewers’ (an important distinction) access television through the ‘official TV channel’ home page while less than half do it through YouTube.  All that would explain why Nielsen Media Research says its “TV Everywhere” which monitors shows online could be counted in the overall TV ratings system in less than two years (2011).  Nielsen officials say they are moving cautiously since ‘$70 Billion of television advertising is bought and sold using Nielsen ratings.’ 

Of course the real proof that online video is taking off comes from Emmy Awards where sitcom star Julia Louis-Dreyfus joked that she was honored to be presenting the awards “on the last official year of network broadcast television.”  The CEO of Tremor Media says the reports of TV’s death, as personified by Louis-Dreyfus’ comment, are greatly exaggerated.  But CEO Jason Glickman does say that this period of 2009 and 2010 will be remembered as the turning point for online video advertising.  The reason for saying that is that large brand advertisings are planning seven figure online video buys on a regular basis, and he says this period will mark the beginning of “online video’s aggressive five-year climb to the highest level of the food chain in the media mix.”

Just to add a little more perspective to this, keep in mind that even Nielsen’s Three Screen Report notes that the average American watches more than 141 hours of TV per month, an all-time high; while that ‘average American’ watches only about three hours of video online on the Internet each month and mobile device users are also watching only about three hours of video on their mobile phones and other devices.  The so-called A2/M2 (Anytime Anywhere Media Measurement) report says that a third of the time that people (with Internet access – an important distinction) spend online is spent online in front of the television.  And, no, I haven’t quite reconciled the Cisco projection that nearly two thirds of video ‘consumed by consumers’ will be over IP networks, with the fact that Americans watch 141 hours of video on television and ‘only’ six hours of video online or on mobile devices.

      I DON’T WANT TO BE ALONE:  Similar to my semi-joking point about the Emmy Awards, you know that social networking has become real when Hollywood decides to make a movie about it.  Entertainment newspaper Variety reports that actor Jesse Eisenberg will play Facebook founder Mark Zuckenberg while Justin Timberlake will play Napster founder Sean Parker.  (No, I don’t know Eisenberg either, although I am semi-familiar with the movies The Squid and the Whale and Adventureland.)  All right, all right, that may not be the big news in social media news.  The big news is that consumer activity on social networking and blogging sites has tripled in the last year from six percent last year at this to 17% now.  Spending on such sites has more than doubled in the same time (from $49 Million to $108 Million) and that, as a percentage of total U.S. Online (emphasis – only online) ad spending, it also doubled from 7% to 15%.  And, of course, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention (although it’s been reported extensively) that Facebook is claiming to have topped the 300 Million mark in worldwide users  -- tripling its numbers from a year ago.  Although Facebook doesn’t break out the figures worldwide, Nielsen reports the number of U.S. Facebook users at 103.8 Million – meaning that two thirds of its users are in other countries.  A separate report by Middleberg Communications and the Society for New Communications Research (SNCR) found more than two-thirds of journalists (70%) use social networks to aid in their reporting.  That’s up from just under half (41%) in last year’s study titled “survey of media in the wired world.”  As reported in PRWeek, two thirds go to company websites (69%) or blogs (66%) while half use Wikipedia (51%) or Twitter (47%) or go to… score another one for online video (48%).  An interesting side note to this last item.  Usually I go to the originating site to verify information contained in articles, but I didn’t in this case because my web browser warned that the SNCR site was unsafe, with infections and malware.  How ironic that a media site would carry such a warning.  H

      AND THE AWARD GOES:  And goes.  And goes. To 96 different categories to be precise.  The Web Marketing Association announced the winners of its Web Award which, you will note, is singular; which may be true because there is only one winner in each category but which would seem to indicate a lack of thought.  (Sort of like me when I bought and built the website MediaConsultant.tv, singular, instead of MediaConsultants.tv, plural.)  Anyway, as part of my never-ending service to readers, visiting such places looking for nuggets that you will find useful, I can honestly say – don’t bother.  Unlike the Webby Awards noted in a previous MfM and which really did have some cool sites, only one site on the Web Marketing Association’s list elicited even the slightest ooh and aah – SciFi.com’s Warehouse 13 which won the TV category.  Okay, semi-cool was the Zimbio.com site which won the E-Zine category and which does have some interesting citizen reporting.  All right, the Leo Burnett Big Black Pencil website which won for marketing was pretty cool.  And the Charlotte Observer’s website which won in the Newspaper category wasn’t bad.  The winner of the broadcasting category, USANetwork.com, was just so-so.  The Business Week’s Business Exchange website won both in News and in Social Networking, which is pretty amazing for a site that is in Beta and looks like it’s a long way from going Alpha.  In Media, the winner was Website Magazine which isn’t half bad, while in the Magazine category the winner was DockWalk – billed as “the essential site for captains and crews.”  Actually last year’s winner in the Magazine category, Saudi Aramco World, was even more interesting.  So, I guess in the end, there were some interesting points.

      COCKTAIL CHATTER:  With all the BS about ‘government death panels,’ you might find it interesting to know there is a death panel… sort of.  It’s a website put together by researchers and students at Carnegie Mellon University.  Called deathriskrankings.com, it gives you the odds of your dying next year, or whenever, based on publicly available data.  It ranks up to 66 different possible causes of death.  Just for the record, I didn’t check on my situation.   And as someone who goes to an enormous number of websites, a cocktail chatter warning.  Avoid online surveys and do not accept offers of free ‘white papers.’  Several articles recently have warned that social networking sites have an incredible amount of surveys, with come on’s about how you can find out something about yourself or your friends.  Most, if not all, of them gather a lot of personal information in the process.  As to the ‘white paper’ offers that will show you how to Twitter, or increase your website traffic, or the results of the latest online survey or other ‘great’ pieces of information… well, be prepared.  The sales people will be a-calling.    

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

Message from Michael - Social Networking - September 21, 2009

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        September 21, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

      CHASING THE BRIGHT ELUSIVE BUTTERFLY

      SOCIAL NETWORKING’S SWINE FLU

      TV’S FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH

      IT’S A SMALL WORLD

 

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      CHASING THE BRIGHT ELUSIVE BUTTERFLY:  Of What?  Well, despite the song, it’s not exactly love, but sort of, according to research by Harvard University professor Mikolaj Jan Piskorski.  As in the song, men apparently are trying to ‘catch a fleeting glimpse of someone’s fading shadow.”  By studying the weblogs on such sites, he found the ‘biggest usage category’ is men looking at women they don’t know, followed by – what else – men looking at women they do know.  Next is women looking at women they know.  The result – women receive two thirds of all page views.  Piskorski says the ‘killer app’ on social networking sites is pictures.  He found that 70% of the time spent is either looking at pictures or looking at personal profiles.  It’s a sort of ‘voyeurism,’ he says.  While all that may be true of individuals, businesses are chasing the bright elusive butterfly of marketing through social networks, and going about it all wrong, according to Piskorski.  They’re so interested in ‘selling’ their product that they have lost track of why social networks started – to fulfill ‘offline’ social needs.  He uses a great analogy of people sitting at a table when a stranger comes up and tries to sell them something.  Not going to happen.  Instead they should be trying to help the socializing process.  Interestingly that is very similar to a point made in Entrepreneur Magazine in an interview with Jason Sadler.  Who, you say?  Sadler is the guy who started a whole business, wearing company T-Shirts, uploading video of him wearing the T-Shirts to Facebook and Flickr and becoming, in essence, a human billboard.  Before you dismiss him, he made $70,000 doing this and his appointment book is almost filled for next year.  Anyway, Sadler makes a similar point that people and businesses slap content on a social networking site and think they’ve done something.  He says the point is to share with people, don’t just shout at them, get involved in conversations and “be yourself.”

As noted before, several businesses, consultancies, websites and publications are offering seminars or advice on how to do social networking effectively.  Heck, there’s now a Social Media Business Council created to “discuss, share and collaborate on best practices.”  Multi-channel retail consultants The E-Tailing Group along with consumer review platform PowerReviews found that more than four out of five businesses (86%) of brand and merchants surveyed now have a Facebook ‘fan page’ and more than half (55%) are using consumer reviews on their websites.  What’s particularly interesting about this survey is that many of the groups adopted social networking not because of advantages but because they were afraid either a) they would be trashed online and not know it or b) that they would appear “less competent” if they didn’t have a social networking presence.  It tells you something that the bastion of conservative businesses, Forbes, has issued a corporate guide book which says ‘social technologies turn many corporate policies upside down.’  Interestingly, even Forbes has similar warnings to the ones noted above, warning that social networking is a communication tool but one in which you join the conversation, not direct it.  But my favorite article on social networking has to be Advertising Age’s article on How To Spot Social Media Snake Oil which notes that there are a lot of ‘hucksters’ out there trying to ride the social media bandwagon to financial success.

ON THE FLIP SIDE of that is a video on YouTube titled the Social Media Revolution.  It is built on the Now You Know theme used so often and says, for example, that social media has overtaken porn as the #1 activity on the Web – something we’ve mentioned in previous Messages.  One I didn’t know (and haven’t verified) is that one in eight couples married in the U.S. met via social media.  The video also makes the point that social media is a conversation to be joined, not directed.  Anyway, it’s well worth the 4 ½ minutes to watch.  Here’s the link:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIFYPQjYhv8&feature=youtube_gdata

      SOCIAL NETWORKING’S SWINE FLU:  Trying to be topical here, but this is probably a bad headline.  Regardless, a fascinating article in The New York Times Magazine may have implications for social networking users.  Two social scientists have found that clusters of friends (a la social networking) can “infect” each other either positively or negatively.  Scientists Nicholas Christakis and James Fowler found that if your friends are fat, you are more likely to be fat; if your friends smoke, you are more likely to smoke; if your friends are happy or unhappy, same thing.  They call it “social contagion.”  Using data from a study originated by the National Heart Institute in Framingham, Massachusetts, they found, for example, that when a resident became obese, his or her friends were 57% more likely to become obese, too.  Oddly, if a friend of a friend became obese, that person was 20% more likely to become obese. If a friend took up smoking, you’re 36% more likely to light up, and again, oddly, if a friend of a friend started smoking, you were 11% more likely to do the same.  It is, in a way, the three degrees of connection versus the six degrees of separation.  The reasons, in most cases, are “commonsensical” as the article points out.  Peer pressure.  What is different is that the study hypothesizes a clustering effect.  If everybody in your group is obese, it is more acceptable for you to be obese.  If everybody in your social circle drinks heavily, then it is okay for you to do so.  Interestingly this example was more noticeable amongst women because women tend to drink less.  On a more positive note, the scientists say that we are all connected to more than 1,000 people within three degrees.  So, theoretically, we can make these people healthier, fitter and happier “just by our contagious example.”

      TV’S FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH:  According to a report by marketing research firm Magna Global, it’s the DVR.  In a report carried by Variety, the firm said the median age of broadcast network viewers has climbed yet again while the median age of cable network viewers has actually held steady or even dropped in some cases.  Now, here’s where it gets a little tricky.  As you sort through the numbers, you have to keep in mind there are three sets of them.  LIVE broadcast viewing where the median viewing age is now 51, up from 50 last year and 43 eight years ago.  If you throw in Live AND Time Shifted viewing, (which I should note is the new parlance of ratings) the median age drops – very slightly.  The oldest skewing network, CBS, goes from a median age of 55 to 54 for both, and the same slight dip holds true for the others: ABC (51 live, 50 combined), NBC (49 and 47), Fox (46 and 44), CW (34 and 33).  BUT if you count those watching programs ONLY on DVR, the media age drops a whopping ten years for ABC, CBS and NBC, a significant seven years for Fox and two years for the lower-aged and lower rated CW. 

Of course, all you smart Message readers will say – the population as a whole is getting older.  True.  So, out of curiosity I did look up age on the Census Bureau website which says the median age in America is 36.7 years, up slightly from 36.4 a year ago, and that the over 65-population is expected to double in the U.S. and the World at large, from 8% of the world population now to 16% by the year 2050.

For a little more perspective, the quarterly report issued by Magna predicts that the percentage of TV Households with DVR’s will go from a quarter (27% or 31 Million households) this year to just under a half (42% or 51.1 Million HH’s) in five years.  Video On Demand is already in 42% of the U.S. TV Households now, but will be in two-thirds of them (66%) by 2014.  Meanwhile broadband access will reach 87.4 Million TV households by 2014, according to the Magna predictions, compared to 71 Million this year.

      IT’S A SMALL WORLD:  The latest ranking of TV Households from Nielsen shows the smallest increase in growth in a decade – less than half a million (400,000 to be exact) year to year, bringing the total to 114.9 Million HH’s.  Household growth has averaged more than a Million every year for the past ten years, including the biggest leap in 2001 to 2002 when it grew by 3.3 Million.  Nielsen estimates the number of person two and up (P2+) at 292 Million, which is a little odd since the Census Bureau puts the total U.S. population at 307,500,180.  Does that mean there are 15 Million toddlers rug-ratting their way around homes?  The Nielsen report notes that four Florida DMA’s (Tampa/ St. Pete, Miami, Fort Myers and Tallahassee) all dropped because of “domestic migration.”  Orlando, Jacksonville and West Palm remained flat.  Number one ranked New York added the most people (59,710) while little Waco only increased by 9,980, but that was enough to move it up five spots to number 89. 

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

Message from Michael - September 8, 2009

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        September 8, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

      ROGER RABBIT AND BRER RABBIT IN THE 21^st CENTURY

      HARRY POTTER’S PAPER COMES TO LIFE

      TODAY’S WORD IS SIMULTANEOUS

      TALKING ABOUT MOBILE DEVICES

      THE ADVERTISING BATTLE FIELD

      SERGEANT PEPPER ISN’T LONELY

 

We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line. 

 

      ROGER RABBIT AND BRER RABBIT IN THE 21^ST CENTURY.  The live action/ animated film concept of yesterday has become the reality of today.  It’s something called Augmented Reality which is sort of a half-way point between the real world and the virtual world.  You or your children may never sing Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah with a bluebird on your shoulder, or run amok in Toontown, but you will be seeing and doing things in a whole different light… and soon.  Augmented reality is defined (by Wikipedia) as a view of the physical real world whose elements are merged with, or augmented by, virtual computer-generated imagery.  The Augmented Environments Laboratory at Georgia Tech says it’s a matter of building Interactive computing environments that “augment a user’s senses with computer generated material.”  AR (as it is referred to) runs the gamut.  From iPhone applications that allow you to point your phone at a restaurant and get a menu along with reviews, to retail stores allowing you to step into an environment in which you can pick your furniture virtually.  Electronics store Best Buy recently put out a Sunday newspaper circular that allowed users to ‘see’ a computer in action by simply holding the circular in front of their computer webcam.  The user appeared on their computer screen with the device apparently in front of them.  ABC meanwhile has created a 3-D ‘augmented reality’ ad for its show Flash Forward.  The network is putting ‘bizarre’ codes into its print ads, according to Variety magazine, which features photos from the series and even plays clips from the show when you hold the codes in front of your webcam.  To see what the Flash Forward video is like, go to website jointhemosaic.com to get a taste of the Web and TV experience.

Want to see AR for yourself?  First go to video.google.com and put ‘augmented reality’ in the search bar.  Ignore the first one that comes up, called augmented reality magic 1.0.  Instead, click on Total immersions Augmented Reality Demo.  It runs 6 minutes and after seeing it, you will probably agree with the cut line that says, “quite simply, this is the future.”  But if you really, really want to be WOW’d, (or at least, say ‘way cool’) go to plugintothesmartgrid.com.  It’s an eco-imagination development by GE that will soon have you holding a wind turbine in your hand.  And while the live action/ animated films cost millions to make, augmented reality is becoming less and less expensive.  One of the M.I.T. Technology Review’s innovators under 35 has developed a device that you can wear around the neck and which merges “the real world with digital information” for under $350.

      HARRY POTTER’S PAPER COMES TO LIFE.  Kindle better beware, and I’m not talking about the new Wi-Fi enhanced Sony Reader. In an even more interesting twist on ABC’s augmented reality ploy, CBS is embedding a video chip into a print ad that will be running in Entertainment Weekly in mid-September.  The mini-battery-powered ads can run up to 40 minutes of video, according to maker Americhip, making it look somewhat like the video newspapers you see in the Harry Potter movie series.  The paper-thin ads will promote CBS’s Monday Night prime time line-up and Pepsi.   Unfortunately you have to be in Los Angeles or New York to see the limited distribution ads… but not for long.  Meanwhile, I should note that Esquire magazine tried something similar using the same kind of E-ink technology used by Kindle.  Critics dubbed that effort a flop with Wired calling it ‘little more than ink mashed up with some underutilized circuitry’ --  sort of like those singing birthday cards friends used to give you.

      TODAY’S WORD IS SIMULTANEOUS.  And more and more, it is being used to describe Television and Internet use.  The latest study by Nielsen says more than half (57%) of TV viewers in the use WITH Internet access (an important point) use both mediums at the same time at least once a month.  The Nielsen study found that TV viewers using the Internet average 2 hours and 40 minutes a month; and that a quarter of the time (28%) they are on the Web, they are also watching television.  This is similar to last year’s report by Nielsen.  Astute readers of The Message will recall the original study on concurrent viewing titled the Middletown Media Studies that showed simultaneous use among ALL media, and the on-going studies by BigResearch on simultaneous use.  Also as noted before, the Nielsen report confirmed that TV consumption continues to grow along with video use on the Internet and on mobile devices.  Nielsen spokesman Gary Holmes makes the point that while Americans still prefer to watch video on their television, “the rule of thumb is that you watch it on the best screen.” 

      TALKING ABOUT MOBILE DEVICES.  Yeah, I know that is a lousy headline transition, but you can only be so creative.  In any case, research by Knowledge Networks shows that two-thirds of Americans use mobile devices that are video-enabled.  Cell phones with video service have nearly doubled in ownership since 2006 while video iPods have grown ‘by a factor of nearly five’ (from 5% in 2006 to 23% this year).    Add laptops to the equation and the use of mobile technologies to view video has more than doubled in two years (21% to 43%).  Online marketing site Marketing Vox also notes a study by the Gartner group which says mobile advertising has jumped 74% this year to $913.5 Million and will reach $13 Billion in four years, by 2013.

 

      THE ADVERTISING BATTLE FIELD:  Several articles have been written recently about the advertising war being waged between Apple and Microsoft with both sides trying to be ‘cool’ while attacking the other.  Let me add an observation.  The August 30^th edition of The New York Times business section contained a graph, citing TNS Media Intelligence that showed Apple spent about $300 Million in 2008 while Microsoft spent about $340 Million.  That’s not what’s interesting.  What’s interesting is that when you look at the graph -- both spent far, far more on television than they did on their home turf – the Internet.  Apple spent about $280 Million on Television and only $10 Million on the Internet, roughly the same as what it spent on Print advertising.  Microsoft spent about $150 Million on Television, almost the same on Print but ‘only’ about $40 Million on the Internet.  What does that say?

As a side note to this, I tried to research the TNS figures so I could verify the Times graph.  (I do this with all the stories I report.)   I found about 30-plus articles citing the Apple-Microsoft ad war and virtually every one of them was just a re-hash of the Times article.  What does that say?

      SERGEANT PEPPER ISN’T LONELY:  According to a survey by the Pew Research Center, The Beatles are the most popular musical performers, and that popularity cuts across all generations.  Half of those surveyed (49%) say they like The Beatles not just a little but A LOT.  Another third (32%) liked them ‘a little.”  Not so coincidentally that survey came out just as two new major developments in Beatle Mania are about to hit.  As noted in previous Messages, the newly remastered CD’s of the group’s original albums are being released this Wednesday.  The digital remastering took four years.  Interestingly there is a stereo and a mono set of releases.  Even more interesting, reviewer Allan Kozinn indicates in his New York Times article on the release that the mono version is in some ways better than the stereo version.  Maybe that’s why the mono set costs $300 while the stereo set costs $260.  Even more noteworthy is the release of the video game, The Beatles: Rock Band.  It also was reviewed in the Sunday edition of the New York Times and to say the review was ‘gushing’ would be like saying Niagara Falls is a water fountain.  Reviewer Seth Schiesel calls it “a cultural watershed… a transformative entertainment experience… the most important video game yet made.”

In case you’re wondering, the second most popular ‘musical performers’ after the Beatles was The Eagles whose ‘lot popularity’ (42%) was not that far behind the Beatles.  Johnny Cash and Michael Jackson basically tied for the next spot in the popularity contest with more than a third (39%) liking them a lot, while another third (37%) liked them a little.  After that, but just slightly was Elvis Presley, The Rolling Stones and Aretha Franklin (38%). Rounding out the top ten list after that was Frank Sinatra and Carrie Underwood (34%), Garth Brooks (33%) and then Jimi Hendrix (32%).

As a further footnote, the Pew Study which looked at the Generation Gap says Rock is the most listened to music genre (35%), followed by Country (27%), Rhythm and Blues (22%), Rap or hip-hop (16%), Classical (15%), Jazz (12%) and Salsa (6%).

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.