October 3rd, 2006

Message From Michael                    (image placeholder)
                                                  October 3, 2006                                                            

• THE INTERNET WILL (FILL IN THE BLANK)


• YOUTUBE VERSUS MYSPACE VERSUS GOOGLE VERSUS YAHOO


• LOCAL ONLINE SALES MOVES TO THE WIN COLUMN


• COCKTAIL CHATTER – COCAINE AND WHEELED SHOES

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• THE INTERNET WILL (FILL IN THE BLANK).  So, how would you respond?  By the year 2020, the Internet will… what?  Well, according to 742 “experts/ thought leaders/ futurists” surveyed by the Pew Research Center, the Internet will be perfected with smooth data flow and mobile wireless communications available to anyone anywhere on the globe at low cost; that national boundaries will be blurred and replaced by city-states and corporation-based cultural groupings as individuals collaborate and compete globally; BUT that while virtual reality on the Internet will allow more productivity, it will also means we will lose people who become addicted to those alternate realities; AND that there will be terrorist attacks against the technology as some refuseniks self-segregate from society to get away from the information overload.  Despite the belief by many that English will become the lingua franca of the world because of the Internet, most of the experts (57%) doubt that and many believe the Internet will preserve the different languages.  (There are 140 languages now used by at least one million people each.)  If anything, Chinese will become more dominant as that economy continues to expand.  And despite the worry about the Internet invoking a Big Brother situation, most of the experts (54%) believe that won’t happen.The survey done by Pew is part of an on-going project with Elon University titled Imagining the Internet.  Interestingly the previous survey in 2004 also predicted that there would be some sort of terrorist rebellion against the technology.  The 2004 survey predicted that news organizations and publishing would be impacted the most over the next ten years by the Internet, followed by education.  The 2006 survey painted seven complicated, multi-layered scenarios for the experts to react to and comment on.  (The complete report is available at elon.edu/predictions.)  I also have to put in a disclaimer here.  I didn’t realize it until I delved into the report but I am one of the 742 “experts” cited in the report.  Anyway, more than half of the experts (56%) agreed with Scenario One in which a “global, low-cost network thrives,” although as one expert said, the digital divide between the ‘have’ and ‘have not’ will continue.  In Scenario Two, more than half (57%) disagreed that English would displace other languages with networked communications leveling the world “into one big political, social and economic space.”   Instead, as one expert said, English peaked as the language of the Internet last year and as International domain names are introduced, it will decline.  In Scenario Three raising the question whether “autonomous technology is a danger,” more than half (54%) disagreed.  Although some experts warned about creating “Frankenstein” or the “golem,” others say machines will never quite be able to handle the ambiguities that humans handle.  In Scenario Four in which “transparency builds a better world at the expense of privacy,” the experts were pretty even split with 46% agreeing and 49% disagreeing.  That’s reflected in the quotes in the report with warnings that “privacy will become a luxury, not a right” and another saying we will be controlled by those who control the technology.  Or, as I was quoted, “the costs unseen will outweigh the benefits perceived.” In Scenario Five, in which virtual reality is cited as allowing more productivity but becoming a drain for some, more than half (56%) agreed.  As one expert put it, the real and virtual are converging, but, as another said, all human problems derived from problems the individual has with him/ her self.  In Scenario Six, only slightly more than half (52%) agreed with the statement that the Internet opens worldwide access to success and reconfigures human networks, but 44% disagreed.  The scenario cited the Thomas Friedman best seller “The World is Flat” in which the Internet is credited with helping people to collaborate and compete globally.  The experts talk about the balance of power between national boundaries and corporate groupings and say there may be a rebalancing but, as one said, it’s more likely to be 2120 than 2020.  Scenario Seven talking about Luddites/ Refuseniks committing acts of terror in protest against technology drew the largest amount of agreement with 58% agree, but a third (35%) disagreeing.  The comments seem to indicate more of them agree, but that the issue is more a question of what will drive the protests – technology or technology heightening the perception of poverty and the differences in religion.Finally, when asked what they would do if they were put in charge of setting priorities on spending money for developing information and communication technologies, slightly more than half (51%) favored building the capacity of the network and developing the technological knowledge for those not currently online.  Less than a third favored created a legal and operating environment for people to use the Internet.  Less than one in ten (8%) favored developing ‘an effective international watchdog organization’ or ‘establishing an easy-to-use, secure international microcredit systems.


• YOUTUBE VERSUS MYSPACE VERSUS GOOGLE VERSUS YAHOO:  And the winner of the most popular video site is… NOT YouTube.  According to an article in MarketWatch by Bambi Francisco, the number one video site is actually MySpace.  Citing a report by comScore Media Metrix, MySpace scored 37.4 Million unique individual who watched 1.4 Billion videos.  Not bad when you consider MySpace only jumped into the video streaming business six months ago.  In fact MySpace is so popular that it accounts for a fifth (20%) of all of the 7.2 Billion videos streamed on the web.  Another report by Reuters cites a financial analyst who says MySpace could soon be worth $15 Billion.  Yahoo actually scored higher in terms of unique individual ‘streamers’ but came in second in terms of actual videos streamed at 812 Million.  YouTube took third place with 649 Million video streams in July.   But a separate comScore Media Metrix report notes that YouTube continues to grow with a 19% increase from July to August, making it the 32nd most visited site on the web.    Just to put this in perspective, a report in Advertising Age quotes ad agency Leo Burnett Worldwide that the “magic number” to be considered successful in the viral video marketing arena is One Million viewings.


• LOCAL ONLINE SALES MAKES IT TO THE WIN COLUMN.  Research firm Borell Associates says next year will be a banner year for LOCAL online sales, with the firm predicting sales in excess of $7.7 Billion.  That is a jump of a third (31%) from this year.  To put that in perspective, last year (2005), local online advertising accounted for $4.8 Billion in sales.  That’s an increase of four-fold from five years before (2000) when sales were $1.17 Billion.  And it’s about half of where sales are expected to be by 2010 when Borrell projects sales to reach $9.3 Billion.  Equally interesting, the company says by next year, local video advertising will become a “trackable” advertising category.  


• COCKTAIL CHATTER:  The top five products people go on-line to search for, according to research firm Hitwise, are #1, Barbie (she’s still popular); #2, Ipods (no surprise); #3 Heelys (never heard of them but they’re a shoe with a wheel in the heel); #4 Crocs (semi-heard of them.  They’re a sort of rubberized beach sandal); and #5 Bratz (the latest doll craze). Negative publicity has helped propel the latest energy drink to sell-out cult status, all on the basis of a $37.50 marketing campaign.  The drink is named Cocaine, and the $37.50 was the amount it cost to have a courier deliver a case to the New York Post which promptly wrote it up.    publicknowledge.org


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