Message From Michael -- April 9, 2007

SWEEPS AND SOPRANOS

NOW YOU SEE IT

THE POWER OF AJAX

THE RACE IS ON

THE WORD IS EXCELLENCE

COCKTAIL CHATTER


We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael. But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.

SWEEPS AND SOPRANOS: They have nothing to do with each other, but I thought it sounded like a good headline. The two big headlines for this week’s MfM – the critical May sweeps is fast approaching and the critically acclaimed Sopranos debuted its final season last night.

NOW YOU SEE IT: And now you see it again… and again… and again. At least, according to a series of reports about streaming video online, you are. Four different reports from four different groups have come dealing with streaming video. International research firm Ipsos, Online research firm comScore/ Video Metrix, marketing research firm eMarketer and one that you may never have heard of, online tracking firm Vidmeter.com. Ipsos reports that just under half (44%) of ALL Americans have streamed some form of video content online with six out of ten (58%) of those Americans with Internet access streaming video. Not surprisingly the numbers are higher for young people. Three in four of all teens 12 to 17 and young adults 18-24 having streamed video last year in 2006. And figures released by ComScore seem to indicate that the number is growing. While the Ipsos report was for 2006, comScore reported that in January of this year ‘unique streamers and downloaders’ totaled nearly 123 Million people or 70% of the total U.S. Internet audience. The comScore figures seem to verify the Ipsos finding that few people (roughly one in seven – 14%) watched full-length TV shows online. The comScore data shows that ‘streamers’ averaged 58.9 streams a month, averaging 151 minutes of online video watching but that meant they were only watching about 2.6 minutes each time. The most popular form of online video stream is news, commentary and sports clips, according to Ipsos, with more than half (51%) having streamed such videos in the past 30 days. Almost as popular are movie and TV trailers with nearly half (48%) streaming them and an almost equally large number (46%) watching amateur or homemade video clips. That last figure is particularly interesting in light of the study by vidmeter.com which says that despite all the hullabaloo about copyright issues on such sites as YouTube, those videos removed because of copyright questions accounted for only six percent of total video views on the site.

Ipsos Executive Vice President Brian Cruikshank says we could be witnessing a “tipping point” in the evolution of digital video offerings online with young people eschewing (I’m sorry, it’s the word that the press release used) more traditional ways to view and acquire video content and turning to digital video on their PC or portable device. Meanwhile, eMarketer reports far fewer women watch video online compared to men, but the numbers are still substantial. The report says ‘only’ two-thirds (66%) of female Internet users watch video online compared to three-quarters (78%) of male Internet users. The executive vice president for comScore, Erin Hunter, argues that marketers could double their primetime viewing by adopting a multi-channel strategy because while ‘primetime’ TV viewing is traditionally between the hours of 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m., the ‘primetime’ viewing of online video occurs during the preceding block of time between 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. (Okay, I know I spent a lot of time on this, but there were, after all, four studies involved.)

On a related note, online video distributor Azureus has launched a video-on-demand site in competition to Joost (mentioned in a previous MfM) utilizing peer-to-peer downloading technology to deliver high definition video from content partners A&E, Starz, BBC and Showtime. And on a further related note, if you ever wondered how to download those videos from YouTube and others, there is a website Keepvid.com which provides a technique to do that.

THE POWER OF AJAX: And I’m not referring to the Greek warrior or to the bleaching cleanser, but to a new Internet publishing technology which threatens or promises (your choice) to change Internet viewing. Ajax stands for Asynchronous JavaScript and XML and is a technique in which a web page or even e-mail can be updated automatically without requiring users to do anything. Publication Mediaweek argues that since the content is updated automatically, there will be less reason to go to other web pages, so therefore there will be fewer page views which is equated (rightfully or wrongfully) with ad impressions. The publication notes that Nielsen/ Net Ratings plans to publish a new “total time spent” metric which will place less emphasis on page views and more on how long is spent viewing. Well, comScore Media Metrix has already adopted a system to measure not only the total visits, but the average minutes per visit and the average visits per visitor. For example, popular website Facebook doesn’t even make it to the top ten when it comes to counting the number of ‘unique visitors.’ Yahoo with 128 Million, Time Warner Network with 118 Million and Google sites with 115 Million are the top three. But when you calculate the average number of visits by each visitor, Facebook jumps into the number two spot with 23.6 visits by each visitor, behind Yahoo with 28.6 visits. In fact the entire top ten list gets restructured with, for example, Weatherbug, which is 48th in terms of unique visitors ranking fifth when it comes to number of visits. I know this all may seem confusing, but the point goes back to an issue raised in previous MfM’s and even the State of the News Media report – measurement. Not just whether a consumer sees a report or advertisement but whether they actually become engaged with, and remember, the report or advertisement.

THE RACE IS ON: The U.S. is ahead, but China is running right behind in one race, but Canada leads in the other race, followed by Israel, South Korea and the United States in fourth place. The first race is the measurement of Internet penetration, arrived at by counting the number of unique visitors aged 15-plus. In this area, according to comScore World Metrix, the U.S. has an astounding 153 Million unique visitors. Think about that. Considering there are ‘only’ 300 Million people in the U.S., that means more than half have visited the Internet. China, which, at 1.3 Billion, has more than four times the population of the U.S., came in second by this measure with nearly 87 Million unique visitors. But there is little doubt the Chinese Internet population will surpass the American Internet population shortly with an annual growth of 20% a year compared to the U.S.’s 2%. The other population behemoth, India, which has a total population of just over One Billion, presently ranks eighth with 21 Million Internet users. India’s total population is growing much faster than China, and its Internet population is growing 33% a year. The next fastest growing Internet population is the Russian federation with just under 13 Million Internet users but with a growth rate of 21% a year. The other race is in average Monthly Hours spent online. Canadians are online 39.6 hours a month compared to Israel’s 37.4 hours, South Korea’s 34 hours and the United States’ 31.6 hours. The world Internet population, measuring those aged 15-plus, in January of this year was 747 Million, up 10% from a year ago.

ANOTHER RACE IS ON: This time between the Internet and other media. According to forecaster ZenithOptimedia, the Internet will overtake radio in terms of ad dollars worldwide by next year. Right now, according to their figures, the Internet is right behind with $31.3 Billion compared to radio’s $36.3 Billion. TV is the big kid on the advertising block with $167.8 Billion in ad spending compared to newspapers’ $126.2 Billion and magazines $56.4 Billion. The agency says the good news for TV is that demand has picked up and instead of its first-ever sustained period of market share loss, TV expenditure globally is forecast to go up. The even better news for the Internet, according to the report summarized in Advertising Age, is that the Internet will account for nearly 9% of global ad spending by 2009 and should reach double digits in the next decade.

THE WORD IS EXCELLENCE: No doubt you’ve heard about the Peabody Award winners, but I just wanted to send my compliments on to the local TV stations cited: WTNH in New Haven, KMOV in St. Louis and the unusual citation for two stations in the same market – WTHR and WISH in Indianapolis. I am proud to have been associated with two of the stations – KMOV where I worked and where I still have friends and WTHR, a former consulting client. The Peabody is awarded under the auspices of the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication which I am also proud to be associated with. And for what it’s worth, I would encourage other local TV stations to submit. The criteria is both simple and profound, and can be summed up in one word – Excellence.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.