Message From Michael -- July 2, 2007

BASHING AMERICA

ROBBING PETER TO PAY PAUL

FACTS TO THINK ABOUT

POLITICIANS AND THE MEDIA

STEPPING INTO THE WAYBACK MACHINE

A MURROW MEA CULPA


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SWEEPS: Guess what? There is a sweeps period. It’s called July. Although most stations don’t pay much attention to it because of the low viewing. But I had to at least mention it.

BASHING AMERICA: Okay, not really. I wouldn’t want to do that, but a review of recently released studies and statistics draws a different picture of America the beautiful’s stance in the world. They show that other parts of the world are growing faster than the United States. Accounting and research consultancy Price Waterhouse Coopers says the U.S. remains the world’s largest but also slowest growing media market in the world, expanding at an estimated 5.3% compound annual growth rate, which is a half to a third of other countries’ growth rate. Leading forecaster Robert J. Coen, senior vice president at Universal McCann, says growth in overseas ad spending would continue to outpace the rate in the United States, as it has done every year for the last four years. He revised downward his projected ad spending for this year for the U.S., but revised upward his forecast for overseas spending because of “robust growth” in countries like Brazil, China and India. A report by the Communication Workers of America found that the U.S. lags far behind most other industrialized nations in terms of Internet speed. The median U.S. download speed is 1.7 megabits per second, compared to speed king Japan’s 61 megabits, South Korea’s 45 megabits, France at 17 megabits and even the Canadians beat us at 7 megabits. The report notes that the Federal Communication Commission defines “high speed” as 200 kilobits per second, a standard adopted more than a decade ago and now not even recognized as broadband in most countries. Mobile phone use is growing faster in other parts of the world than in the U.S., as well. Mobile phone use in Europe has reached the point that it is more than 100% of the actual population, according to U.K. based telecom analysis company The Mobile World. While ‘mobisodes’ (video for mobile phones) are just starting here in the U.S., in the Asia-Pacific region, distribution of TV programming on mobile phones is expected to reach $6.5 Billion in 2011, from the current spending of a mere $16 Million, a compound annual growth rate of 14.7%, compared to 5.5% for the rest of the world.

By the way, if you’re interested, you can find the relative Internet speeds for every state, listed on the website speedmatters.org, as well as a speed test for checking your own Internet connection speed.

NET NEUTRALITY: As a side note to the technology issues, it’s worth noting, even though it’s been in the news, that the Federal Trade Commission urged Congress to be cautious about any move to regular broadband Internet access. Or, put more simply – don’t enact any new laws on net neutrality. And, as blogger Declan McCullagh put it on the CNet blog site, this is coming from “the lifelong bureaucrats… (who) are hardly a bunch of Hayek-quoting, Ron Paul-voting libertarians.”

ROBBING PETER TO PAY PAUL: Internet advertising reached a record $16.9 Billion in the U.S. last year, a 35% increase over the year before, according to figures released by the Interactive Advertising Bureau. Sounds great, right? Wait, there’s more. In the first quarter of this year, Internet advertising revenues reached a new record of $4.9 Billion, a 26% increase over the first quarter of last year. Wait, there’s even more. The folks at Universal McCann predict that Internet advertising will be up 17% this year over last. And one more. The firm, Price Waterhouse Coopers, mentioned earlier, expects Internet advertising and ‘access spending’ to grow worldwide from an estimated $177 Billion last year to $332 Billion in 2011. Now, the other side of the story. Those same folks at Price Waterhouse Coopers predict that in two years, in 2009, spending on Internet advertising and access will pass spending on newspaper publishing. And forecasting guru Robert J. Coen, mentioned earlier, lowered his projections for advertising spending this year, in part because of a slowing in local dollar spending caused by a migration of local classified advertising from the HIGHER priced print ads of newspapers to the LOWER priced online ads of their websites.

SOME FACTS TO THINK ABOUT: Global mobile phone use will top 3.25 Billion in 2007. To put that in perspective, the world population is forecast to hit 6.6 Billion this month. In other worlds, mobile phone use is equivalent to half the world’s population. According to a survey by The Mobile World, mentioned above, more than 1,000 new customers are signing up for mobile phones every minute around the world. The median age of the American television viewing audience is 48. To put this number in perspective, the media age of the U.S. population is 37. According to a report by Magna/ Global, the ABC viewer is 48, the NBC viewer is 49, the CBS viewer 53, Fox is 42 and the CW viewer is 32. Again, for perspective, I checked last year’s figures. ABC was 46, NBC was 49, CBS was 52, Fox was 39 and the WB, (remember, a year ago) was 37 while the UPN was 32.

POLITICIANS AND THE MEDIA: I know you may have already seen this, but it’s interesting that two former politicians jumped on the media’s case recently. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair told a journalism think tank at Oxford University that technology has turned the media into a “feral beast” in which all that matter is “impact” – rising above the clamor, getting noticed, getting a competitive edge. And that accuracy is “often secondary.” Former U.S. President Bill Clinton called on marketers at a Promax convention to help politicians deliver complex messages without turning them into “two dimensional cartoons.” He says some political candidate’s messages don’t get covered because they don’t fit in with how parties and issues are “pre-branded” by the press.

STEPPING INTO THE WAYBACK MACHINE: A year ago, the name dominating the MfM news was Frank Maggio. He’s the Florida developer who tried to buy Nielsen Media Research and, when that failed, announced he was launching his own TV ratings service. Well, a check up since then shows that he did indeed launch a service called Erin Media, which promises a “new approach to the science of television audience analysis.” And he also writes a blog on Media Post’s TV Board. In the June 12 edition of MfM last year, we listed many of the photo and video sharing websites operating then. You can find the entire list by going to media-consultant.blogspot.com and look up that edition in the 2006 archives. And in keeping with the “bash America” theme above, a report released a year ago by Reporters Without Borders put the U.S. at 44th out of a list of 167 countries in terms of press freedom. Seven countries tied for first (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland). North Korea was last.

A MURROW MEA CULPA: My apologies to my good friends at the University of Missouri for failing to note that KBIA-FM, the National Public Radio affiliate staffed by students and managed by university faculty members, won a Murrow award for investigative reporting – its second Murrow in a row. Pretty embarrassing since I used to teach there.

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