Message From Michael -- December 10, 2007

FACTOIDS FORETELLING THE FUTURE

COMPUTERS DISAPPEARING INTO THE CLOUDS

HE KNOWS WHEN YOU’VE BEEN GOOD OR BEEN BAD

THE CUSTOMER IS ALWAYS RIGHT

THE COUNTERINTUITIVE CHINESE STUDY

STEPPING INTO THE POLITICAL WAYBACK MACHINE

ANOTHER MARKETING CONUNDRUM


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FACTOIDS FORETELLING THE FUTURE: Two of them, actually. The number of multimedia mobile phones being shipped worldwide will pass the number of television sets being sold, with more than 300 Million units being shipped next year, according to the firm MultiMedia Intelligence which specializes in ‘delivering IP-based video to the nth screen.’ And buried in an Associated Press article about the UBS Media Conference was a statement by the head of Gannett’s newspaper division, Sue Clark-Johnson, that they had trained 600 print journalists how to make video for their websites. The second factoid is a message to my TV brethren and speaks to the growing battle over the Internet; and is also why I take a holistic approach to reporting on media in all its facets in MfM. The first factoid also speaks to that holistic approach and is indicative of the battle between new media and traditional media.

MultiMedia Intelligence defines a multimedia handset as one with an image sensor, MP3 audio support and video playback. Based on that definition, three out of five handsets today have multimedia functionality. However, in three years time, by 2011, the report says almost 9 out of 10 handsets would qualify. The report says the number of handsets with touch screens will reach 200 million by 2011.

COMPUTERS DISAPPEARING INTO THE CLOUDS: Several of the world’s largest Internet and computer companies are trying to get rid of the computer as we know it. It’s a system called “cloud computing” in which not only are the data and content (documents, spreadsheets, presentations and emails) stored online but so are the applications (Word, Excel, PowerPoint, etc.). Microsoft has Office Live; Google Calendar stores events; Google Docs stores spreadsheets and documents; Picasa stores pictures; and, of course, companies like Yahoo, Amazon and eBay have search, email, and e-commerce applications online. Google and I.B.M. are funding a major cloud computing research initiative to build large data centers that research universities can tap into in order to perform a kind of ‘supercomputing’ function – what they call ‘Internet-scale computing.’ The big concern, of course, is security. InformationWeek reports that the Sans Institute latest @Risk bulletin found 60 vulnerabilities in the online Web applications, compared to two for Windows, Internet Explorer and Mac OS, three for Linux, nine for third party Windows applications and 16 for cross-platform applications. However, the article points out the new Web applications are just that – new, while the other systems have been around for a long time and so they’ve been tried and tested more.

HE KNOWS WHEN YOU’VE BEEN GOOD OR BEEN BAD: And, no, I’m not talking about Santa Claus sitting around at the North Pole. Instead I’m talking about the CEO of a phone company in Monroe, Louisiana. The company, CenturyTel Inc., is using software called ‘deep packet inspection boxes’ that can track EVERY – repeat, EVERY – website you visit. Up to now, such tracking has been limited to cookies that are stored on your hard drive after you visit a website. Now, with the deep packet system, the tracking is done at the Internet Service Provider site so that your online travels are noted at the start. An article in the Wall Street Journal notes that the software developed by several companies including NebuAd, FrontPorch and Phorm is raising all kinds of privacy concerns. A lengthy article carried by the Associated Press raises similar concerns about what is called “behavioral targeting.” The AP report cites as an example how, based on weather reports and restaurant listings you check out online, Yahoo, for example, has a good idea where you live; then based on searches you have made online, the web portal also knows where you want to go. The result – next time you go online there’s an advertisement from United Airlines for flights between these two places.

THE CUSTOMER IS ALWAYS RIGHT: Readers who are old enough will remember seeing a sign saying that behind the counter at the Country Store or Five and Ten store. Well, apparently it’s coming back, except that now it’s called “consumer generated reviews.” Two separate studies tout the importance and advantages of such reviews. Nielsen-owned comScore and ‘research and strategic analysis’ firm The Kelsey Group found that one in four Internet users rely on consumer generated reviews to make a decision; and of that group; three quarters said the review had a major impact on their decision to buy and nearly ALL of them say they found the reviews to be accurate. Not only that but the consumers surveyed said they were willing to pay more for products or services that got good ratings. In a similar vein, a study by social commerce site BazaarVoice and word of mouth research and consulting firm Keller Fay Group found that, despite the belief that the Internet caters to people with a gripe, more than half of such reviews are positive. Nine out of ten such reviewers said they were only trying to help other consumers make better decisions. The Internet Retailers Association says nearly a quarter of the Internet businesses have started customer reviews for this holiday buying season.

THE COUNTERINTUITIVE CHINESE STUDY: A study by interactive conglomerate IAC and advertising agency JWT finds that five times as many Chinese as American respondents (61% vs. 13%) say they have a parallel life online; Chinese youth are twice as likely as young Americans (25% vs. 12%) to say they would NOT feel okay going without Internet access for more than a day; More than twice as many Chinese youth admitted they sometimes feel ‘addicted’ to living online (42% vs. 18%); Chinese respondents were four times as likely as Americans to agree that things ONLINE feel more intense than things OFFLINE (48% vs. 12%); More than three quarters (77%) of the Chinese sample agreed that computer/console games are more fun when played online compared with a third of the Americans. And lastly, the folks at the two companies say the Chinese Internet is buzzing with “virtual pheromones – cybermones, if you will” with three times as many Chinese as Americans (32% vs. 11%) willing to admit that the Internet has broadened their sex life. As a side note to this, one of the hottest blogging sensations in China was a sex blog by a young woman who goes by the name Mu Zimei.

FOOTNOTE: Security software vendor MacAfee says that China accounts for four out of five major cyber attacks on governments. In a report carried by the Associated Press, the company says there were more attacks on ‘critical’ governmental infrastructures in 2007 than ever before. The company says 120 countries are developing “cyber attack strategies”, that there is a brewing “cyber cold war” and that the attacks could erupt into a worldwide conflict. China, almost needless to say, denies such involvement.

ADVERTISING REPORT FOLLOW-UP: In an earlier MfM, we reported on ZenithOptimedia’s worldwide projections for advertising in 2008. Another interesting factoid I found in the report: Between now and 2010, the ten fastest growing advertising markets will be Kazakhstan in first place, followed by Belarus, Serbia, Egypt, Russia, Moldova, Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, and what the agency refers to as “Pan Arab.”

STEPPING INTO THE POLITICAL WAYBACK MACHINE: The ‘most memorable’ political moment in American radio/television history, according to a survey of scholars, politicians and analysts by the Museum of Broadcast Communications, was the assassination of John F. Kennedy and the subsequent funeral coverage. The attack on the World Trade Center was second in the list of 125 moments, followed by the first Kennedy-Nixon Debate in 1960, Franklin Roosevelt’s Pearl Harbor speech in 1941, Neil Armstrong walking on the moon in 1969, the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in 1968, Franklin Roosevelt, again, for his first inaugural address in 1933, Richard Nixon’s Checkers speech, Martin Luther King’s I have a dream speech in 1963 and Richard Nixon, again, for his farewell speech in 1974. Ronald Reagan leads in terms of mentions with 14 moments listed, followed by Richard Nixon with 12, John F. Kennedy with 10 and Franklin Roosevelt with 9. President George W. Bush gets five mentions, the same as his father and Bill Clinton and Lyndon Johnson, but one more than Jimmy Carter. The assassination of Robert Kennedy came in at 46 and the assassination of Martin Luther King came in at 50. You can view the full list at the museum’s website http://www.museum.tv.

ANOTHER MARKETING CONUNDRUM: Following a previous week’s MC (marketing conundrum) in MfM, I have another. Explain to me why the liquor store next to the Publix supermarket across the street from me carries $40 to $80 bottles of wine when they have surly 20-something clerks whose knowledge of wine is limited to ‘reds’ and ‘whites.’

FOOTNOTE/ DISCLAIMER: The weekly Message From Michael will be sent out on an intermittent basis over the holidays. As we find new research or studies that we find interesting and that haven’t been beaten to death in other media, we’ll bring them to you.

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