Message From Michael -- Special Edition -- 2008 - Trends

THE NATPE OF NEW MEDIA

ONLINE OVERTAKES ON-AIR

IT’S THE ENVIRONMENT, STUPID

NO, NO, IT’S ALL ABOUT BEING ONLINE

MONOLOGUE VERSUS DIALOGUE IN 2008

CULTURAL CHANGE NEED FOR 2008

CONSULTING ADVICE FOR 2008


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TRENDS FOR 2008: Following up last week’s MfM on top trends of 2007, in this week’s edition we look at the projected top trends for 2008. But first there are a couple of developments we need to touch on first.

THE NATPE OF NEW MEDIA: In a way that’s what the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas is. The New York Times calls it an “unabashed display of high technology gadgetry” and the “hope of the future.” TV Week in an editorial called it a “roadmap to the digital future.” Others call it the “Super Bowl” of electronic wonders. The Associated Press called it “a glitzy celebration of technology.” Here are some examples from the CES award winners:

The Yoggie, a key-sized device that plugs into your USB port and blocks Internet threats, hides your PC from hackers, and boosts your PC’s performance. The Zeppelin which converts your iPod into “an astonishingly capable yet highly compact” stereo system. A Waterproof hard drive which acts as an affordable security storage container for data. Sanyo has produced the world’s first waterproof camcorder, able to take video and still pictures above or below water. The Lightglove which is worn on the wrist like a watch but actually connects people to machines through light. SlingCatcher, which we’ve mentioned previously, lets you watch video from your PC or from virtually any video site on the Internet on your existing TV. Photoskins is a portable photo frame so thin it can fit in your wallet and can be connected to a computer to download widgets. Meanwhile Microsoft’s Bill Gates in his farewell speech to the convention talked about interfacing with computers through speech and screen touch, showed off a ‘mobile navigator’ that can be used to point at a person or place and get more information, and announced that Samsung will offer an adapter that lets flat-screen TVs act as Media Center extenders showing videos, pictures and music stored on a Vista PC.

However, in all that gadgetry, observers noted two things: the importance, still, of TV and the importance of content. Television Week’s Daisy Whitney writes that these days everyone is a partner, as advertisers and content providers “kick the tires” on a wide range of new media services. Technology companies are partnering with content companies, and vice versa, but all with the aim of ‘getting to the TV’ and the broadest reach possible. Writers for the New York Times also noted that TVs were ‘front and center’ at the convention and that while the show has always been a display for hardware, this year it was the software, information and entertainment content that ‘edged toward center stage.’

ONLINE OVERTAKES ON-AIR: But with a caveat – in the United Kingdom. Advertising giant WPP says Internet advertising is expected to hit 3.4 Billion English Pounds this year, just behind the 3.56 Billion English Pounds spent on TV advertising. By 2009, Britain is likely to become the world’s first major economy to, as The Independent newspaper put it, “witness the ascent of the Internet past one of its biggest rival mediums in the advertising arena.” The article points out the appeal of the Internet, especially to advertisers looking for pinpointed messages. The caveat, as pointed out in another article, is that the milestone comes in a country where the government-supported, non-advertiser-supported British Broadcasting Company is a dominant television player.

Okay, now back to the prognostications for 2008……

IT’S THE ENVIRONMENT, STUPID: If there was one consistent message from the various prognosticators, it was the emphasis on the environment in 2008. Advertising giant J Walter Thompson (JWT) says blue will be the new color of the green movement as the dwindling supply of clean water becomes the ‘eco-debate’ of the new year. The company also sees a rise in what it calls “cooperative consumption” in which people share resources. The Wall Street Journal in its review of the best of ads and worst of ads says, “green is the new black” as in being cool. Reporter Suzanne Vranica provides a long list of companies who tried to jump on the “eco-friendly bandwagon” by giving their products and brand “an environmental tint.” BrandKeys president Robert Passikoff, writing for Chief Marketer, says companies will have to move from saying they’re “green” to actually being “Emerald City Green” meaning that they won’t be able to get away with just saying they are eco-friendly, they’ll have to prove it by being (as he steals a line from the Wizard of Oz) “morally, ethically, spiritually, physically, positively, absolutely, undeniably and reliably” green.

Side note: It’s too interesting not to note the other two big trends the JWT group sees for this year. The second (there were actually ten) was headlined ‘outwitting disease’ because aging baby boomers will find they can live longer with chronic diseases such as diabetes. The third, and what some call the most interesting, is “the world is local” which argues that as global companies make products that are ubiquitous and common, because no matter where they are made they can be sold everywhere, the desire for distinctively local products will grow.

NO, NO, IT’S ALL ABOUT BEING ONLINE: At least that seems to be the other major theme for 2008. Also, from the Wall Street Journal, the same reporter mentioned earlier says the emergence of the Web is forcing ad executives to ‘succumb’ to marketers’ demands that they re-invent how ads are created and “forgo their TV-centric approach.” Online market research firm eMarketer predicts that marketing executives will continue to gravitate to the Internet because the ad formats are more measurable, and that online ad spending will remain “resilient” even if the country slides into a recession. The company does say though that the surge in online video growth will slow (if that’s the right word) from 89% growth last year to 74% growth this year; and that social network usage and advertising will continue to grow at 70-plus percent rate. In a similar vein, TNS Media Intelligence forecasts a 4.2% growth in overall ad spending in the U.S. bolstered partly by the elections, partly by the Olympics but primarily because of growth in online ad spending which it says will grow 14.4% this year. Banker JP Morgan joined in, predicting a boost in online display ad revenues, in part because of an increase in CPM rates.

Meanwhile, Mark Simon, vice president at search engine marketing firm Didit, predicts in an article in SearchEngine that the online ad business will ‘heat up to white-hot levels’ after the Federal Trade Commission approved the Google-Double Click deal, which he likens to playing Monopoly, but with real money. He also predicts that more once-promising web properties will expire in 2008 just as many did in 2007, saying a certain level of “carnage” is normal and healthy on the Web. Simon also notes that online ads have reverted to their old intrusive formats with pop-unders and pop-overs, a level of intrusiveness that will only get worse with the growth of widgets.

MONOLOGUE VERSUS DIALOGUE IN 2008: It’s something of a “reading between the lines” but one of the other trends one sees in all the discussion is the interaction between advertisers and consumers, between content providers and content creators. As several experts put it, instead of having a one-sided monologue with your customers/ viewers/ readers/ listeners/ consumers, businesses or content providers or advertisers (take your choice) will have to have a two-sided dialogue, in order to be successful. Writing in Business Week, Johnny Vulkan of marketing communications agency Anomaly says one of the future trends is an old-time concept – that the product or service should be good. He argues the idea that you advertise “at” people is gone with the new technology because they can answer back. So, if your product or service isn’t good, the world will soon know about it. That same technology creates a kind of “bionic” consumer, according to Passikoff writing for Chief Marketer. That’s why, he argues, there will be an increasing emphasis on measuring engagement, because a brand will have to at least meet and preferably exceed the customers’ demands.

CULTURAL CHANGE NEED FOR 2008: A survey of news executives by Editor and Publisher columnist Steve Outing found that the number one thing they say was needed in 2008 was a culture change in their companies and in their newsrooms to accept new media initiatives. Although writing for newspapers, the findings could well apply to all mainstream media. Outing says many of those surveyed believe the staff is still skeptical about the new media initiatives. Part of that is because new media initiatives aren’t being staffed properly, says DenverPost.com senior developer Joe Murphy, who wins the quote of the day award, arguing that it would help if there was “more space between us and the grindstone.” Outing urges all news people to take part in the digital media world, whether it’s social networking sites like Facebook and MySpace or their own blog, so they can better understand it.

CONSULTING ADVICE FOR 2008: And it’s not even from me. I have to give plaudits to Doug Drew of 602 Communications and his resolutions for producers and reporters, featured in last week’s Shoptalk. Much of it falls under what I call basic blocking and tackling: write to the video, use more natural sound, avoid wallpaper video, write conversationally, avoid cute-clever writing, write with immediacy, pick soundbites that are emotional not factual. But as famed coach Vince Lombardi who coined the original quote said about football, it’s that ‘blocking and tackling’ that gets the job done, and frankly, not many stations get the basics right. Of course, Lombardi is the same guy who said, “winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing” and “show me a good loser and I’ll show you a loser.” Although the better one from him was: “it’s not whether you get knocked down, it’s whether you get up.”

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