Message from Michael -- April 28, 2008

SWEEPS

THE Y2K OF BROADCASTING

BACK TO THE FUTURE

AMERICA VERUS CHINA

VOYEURS VERSUS CREATORS

THE SINCEREST FORM OF FLATTERY

THE TEEN PARADOX

THANK YOU


We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael. But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.

SWEEPS: Week one of sweeps. Do you know where your ratings are? Do you have all your special reports done? Do you know what your network is planning? All questions that inquiring minds want to know. And with the writers’ strike over, ratings are expected to be up. So, check for your network’s season finales. They’ll be big nights for you. Fox’s American Idol phenomenon has its two-hour season finale on Wednesday, May 21st. NBC’s Law & Order, SVU has its 9th season finale Tuesday, May13th. CBS’s 14th season finale of ER is on Thursday, May 15th. ABC has a special two-hour fourth season finale of Desperate Housewives on Sunday, May 18th. And the list goes on and on. And look out for specials and network stunting. For example, for race car fans, the Darlington 500 is on Fox Saturday night, May 10th. A good resource for all these is: http://television.aol.com/feature/may-sweeps/schedule .

THE Y2K OF BROADCASTING: That’s the way I have described to clients the coming DTV Transition set for February 17, 2009, at 11:59:59 p.m. Remember Y2K? That was when the clocks on computers everywhere clicked over to January 1, 2000 – the new millennium – again at 11:59:59 p.m. Predictions ranged from computers crashing and gas pumps stopping to you name it. But aside from a few burps, nothing catastrophic happened. Observers are hoping the same thing proves true for the DTV transition, but it’s all reaching a level of “high anxiety” with a number of agencies, organizations and groups, including the Federal Communications Commission, expressing concern. The National Association of Broadcasters says at least 19.6 Million Households receive over-the-air signals exclusively in their homes and 14.9 Million Households have secondary over-the-air TV sets in their bedrooms or kitchens. Nielsen Media recently warned that one out of every ten households in the U.S. would lose access to most TV signals if the transition happened today, with minority groups hit particularly hard. (What has been little reported is that Nielsen also expressed some concerns, but phrased in hopeful terms, about measuring the digital signal.) Consumer Reports says its survey shows 15% of Americans live in households that rely exclusively on over-the-air programming. IF these people don’t do something (switch to cable or satellite or buy a converter box), that would translate into 11% of American adults, or 23 Million people unable to watch TV.

Everybody agrees that broadcasters need to educate the public about the DTV transition, but what they don’t agree on is how well that is going. The NAB says public awareness of the DTV transition has doubled from 38% at the beginning of last year to 79% in January of this year. Consumer Reports says that of those TV viewers who have at least one TV affected by the transition (meaning primarily over the air) two-thirds (61%) do not know they are affected or are completely unaware of the transition. And one third (33%) of Americans in households that will have no functioning television after the February deadline were completely unaware the transition is happening. One interesting statistic cited by Consumer Reports was that the federal government had allocated $6.5 Million for education about the digital transition while the British government plans to spend $400 Million, although of course that is a government dominated broadcast situation with the BBC. A further interesting side note is the NAB’s letter to the National Telecommunication and Information Administration warning that seniors living in nursing homes may be excluded from getting the government coupons to help pay for converter boxes because of the definition of household.

Even with all this, it gets worse, with market research firm Centris says there are “serious gaps” in digital TV signals across the country so that even if people do know what’s going on, they still may not get a TV signal after the transition date. Obviously, much more to come on this topic in future MfM editions. In fact we are looking at producing our own special White Paper on DTV. As we used to say in the old days… stay tuned.

Footnote: Well known, no doubt, to all those smart people who read MfM, HD and DTV are related but not related issues. Even given that, a recent Webinar arranged by TV Newsday titled How To Go HD Without Going Nuts is worth the hour of time. While all the panelists were strong advocates of the value of HDTV, each had some valid points to consider: KYW/ Philadelphia chief engineer Rich Paleski emphasized the need for a clearly written workflow; WLEX/ Lexington news director (and I’m happy to say, MfM reader) Bruce Carter emphasized the need for training, training and more training and warned that whatever you budget, add 20%; Thomson Grass Valley’s John Naylor emphasized the importance of Meta Data inputs to make the video more usable; Thompson Grass Valley’s Ed Casaccia emphasized that HDTV is, as he put it, “magnetic to viewers.”

BACK TO THE FUTURE: The Federal Communications Commission has proposed a new set of rules that revive some old requirements for local television stations to renew their licenses. Stations that do not air a specified amount of local programming would automatically have their renewal application reviewed, not at the bureau level, but by the commissioners themselves – a move the NAB says is similar to the process in place in the 1970’s. The FCC is also proposing that stations establish permanent advisory boards consisting of local officials and other community leaders, that radio and TV stations be physically manned during all hours of operation and that a stations’ main studio be located within its community of license so the station would be accessible to the local community – a requirement the NAB says was liberalized in 1987 and 1998 to allow stations to operate more efficiently. Several station groups have filed comments calling the moves “blunt and burdensome” and a group of 20 small stations say the move would harm localism rather than helping it. In case you wanted to comment – sorry, the deadline was yesterday.

AMERICA VERSUS CHINA: It’s not yet official, but China is expected to overtake the U.S. as the country with the largest Internet population. The latest report from the Chinese government’s China Internet Network Information Center puts the Internet population at 221 Million, tied with the U.S., but the Chinese figures are from the beginning of the year while the U.S. figures are from March. When the latest figures are released, China is expected to overtake the U.S., according to reports from the Associated Press and the Xinhua News Agency. Even though China’s Internet penetration is low (16%), its web growth is faster than the U.S., where Internet penetration is so high that growth is slower. By the year 2012, the Chinese web population is expected to reach 490 Million – a number larger than the entire U.S. population.

VOYEURS VERSUS CREATORS: In another variation of the U.S. versus the rest of the world theme, massive ad agency Universal McCann says its study of social media worldwide shows that despite all the hullabaloo about user generated content, the U.S. is actually a “country of voyeurs” who are more likely to consume content compared to China which is a “country of creators” who actually produce online content. For example, in the U.S. a little more than 60% of Internet users say they read blogs but only 26% had created one. In China, 88% say they read blogs while 70% say they actually blog; similarly in South Korea, 92% read blogs but 70% of them actually create blogs as well.

IMITATION IS THE SINCEREST FORM OF FLATTERY: Reading the Universal McCann Social Media Wave 3 report, I was struck by a remarkable similarity. In last week’s MfM, you may recall, we cited a white paper by the Interactive Advertising Bureau about social networking and in particular a quote: “In 2008, if you’re not on a social networking site, you’re not on the Internet.” In the Universal McCann report, it notes that social media is a ‘global phenomenon happening in all markets regardless of wider economic, social and cultural development’ and says, quote, “if you are online you are using social media.” In any case, the Universal McCann report is so extensive, we will have a part two version in next week’s MfM.

THE TEEN PARADOX: As if there weren’t enough already… the Pew Internet and American Life Project says teens are writing more but writing less. They’re writing more in terms of writing emails, texting, IM’ing and posting on social networks, but even the teenagers say this doesn’t count as “real” writing. They also don’t think the technology has negatively influenced their writing although many admit they use the more informal tech style of writing, including shortcuts and emoticons, in their formal writing. And at the same time, to continue the paradox, the vast majority of teenagers (86%) believe good writing is important to success in life – slightly more than the percentage of parents (83%).

THANK YOU: To all those who took part in the online survey by the Grady College of Journalism and Mass Communication that I shamelessly pushed in previous Messages.

SUBSCRIPTIONS: If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com. You can reach me directly at my website MediaConsultant.tv.