Message from Michael - May 4, 2009 - The Future

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        May 4, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

      NEWSPAPERS VERSUS TELEVISION

      THE DIGITAL FUTURE VERSUS THE INTERNET FUTURE

      THE U-S VERSUS THE WORLD

      WORLD INTERNET STATISTICS

      DIGITAL FUTURE FACTOIDS

      INTERNET FUTURE FINDINGS

      THANK YOU

 

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      NEWSPAPERS VERSUS TELEVISION:   A report by the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School of Communication makes the case that newspapers are “back in the breaking news business” for the first time in 60 years, and by implication competing against what has been television’s main strength.  In its recently released eighth annual Internet survey by the Center for the Digital Future, center director Jeffrey I. Cole says “the path to the end of the printed daily newspaper” has accelerated faster than anticipated.  The report says that one out of five (22%) of Internet users have stopped their print subscription, and that worldwide, statistics show that when Internet use reaches 30%, newspaper use begins to decline.  That’s why Cole says newspapers need to move into the digital realm with a solid business plan if they are to succeed or survive.  Oddly enough the report summary (caveat – I couldn’t afford the full report), says that weekly reading of newspapers online is at the highest level ever in the digital future series of reports but that the level of trust in news pages posted by traditional media is at the lowest level ever in the history of the digital future report.

A caveat here:  The study doesn’t actually draw a battle line between television and newspapers over breaking news.  That is my hypothesis, based on research and consulting recommendations for television stations.  But to bolster that point, I would note an interesting observation from visiting all of the network news websites.  All of them start with the headline:  breaking news.  Then they add whatever other element they think is important to viewers.  For example, abcnews.com headlines its website with online news and features, along with breaking news; cbsnews.com is just breaking news headlines; foxnews adds latest news to its breaking news headlines; and nbcnews.com adds weather and business to breaking news.

      THE DIGITAL FUTURE VERSUS THE INTERNET FUTURE:  Despite all the hoopla about social networking, the digital future survey says only 15% of those surveyed belong to an “online community.”  And most of them say it is related to a hobby.  In fact I was so surprised that I questioned the authors who responded with the exact question:  are you a member of an online community that shares thoughts or ideas, or works on common projects, that does not exist offline?  The respondents can include whatever they choose, the authors say.  Although it is not included in the summary, the authors say social networking is addressed in the full report.  The report summary does say that slightly more than half (52%) believe the Internet is important in maintaining social relationships.  Interestingly the social networking phenomenon is not mentioned in another similar report, The Future of the Internet, by Elon University and the Pew Internet and American Life Project.  In this, the third of a series of reports, “experts” and “stakeholders” are surveyed about possible scenarios for the 2020.  Instead it talks about ‘augmented reality.’  More than half of those surveyed (56%) say people and organizations will spend some part of their waking hours – at work and at play – in what is called virtual worlds, or ‘augmented reality’, the ‘metaverse’ or the ‘geoWeb.”  In the scenario painted, the authors pose the idea that “this lifestyle involves seamless transition between artificial reality, virtual reality, and the status formerly known as ‘real life.’” Think about that statement for a minute.  Anyway, in a very similar vein, more than half of those surveyed (57%) also believe that by 2020, few lines will divide professional time from personal time and that work and play are “seamlessly integrated in most of these workers’ lives.”  Yeah, I know, many of you are saying that’s true now.

      THE U.S. VERSUS THE WORLD:  An earlier report of the Digital Future center shows many similarities but some differences between how Americans use the Internet versus people in other countries.  The World Internet Project finds, for example, while half of Americans (52%) believe that information on the Web is less reliable, substantially more people in urban China (70%), Sweden (64%), Canada (62%) and Australia (60%) question the reliability of Internet information.  In all of the World Internet Project countries, except one, two thirds of users say the Internet is an important or very important source of information.  Which is the one exception?  -- Sweden.  Why?  I don’t know.  The United States and the United Kingdom have the highest percentage of people who buy online weekly (18% for the U.K. and 14% for the U.S.) or monthly (47% for the U.K., 46% for the U.S.)  And while one in ten online users in the U.S. (12%) never buys online, nine out of ten Internet users in Colombia never buy online.  In nine of the WIP countries, one in five non-users (22%) say they don’t go online because they don’t know how or they are confused by the technology.  Health information is still a top topic online everywhere in the world.  It is particularly high in Israel and urban China where more than half (55%) go online for information.  Interestingly, urban China had the highest percentage (30%) of people going online weekly to view or download video.  By comparison, the U.S. is half that (17%). 

      WORLD INTERNET STATISTICS:  Since we’re on a world kick, a quick update on recently released Internet statistics worldwide.  One in every four persons in the world (23.8%) is now online, according to Internet World Statistics website.  That translates into 1,596,270,108 persons out of a world population of 6,710,029,070.  The largest number of users is in Asia with 657 Million.  The highest penetration rate is in North America with 74.4%.  The fastest growth in percentage of users is the Middle East with a growth rate of 1,296.2%.  And while Asia has the largest number of users, it has the second lowest penetration rate (17.4%), significantly better though than last place Africa (5.6%).  And while North America has the highest penetration rate, it has the lowest growth rate (but a still substantial 132.5%). 

      DIGITAL FUTURE FACTOIDS:  The amount of time Internet users spend online has grown each year of the report, reaching an average of 17 hours a week in the latest report.  But, the report notes, there is a huge difference between heavy users who spend an average 42 hours online and light users who spend an average 2.8 hours online.  The report still finds a small but significant percentage of Internet non-users.  The difference this year is these non-users are less likely to go online with only a third (36%) saying they have any intention of doing so – which is down significantly from the nearly half (46%) of the year before.  But another group, which the report dubs Internet Dropouts, shows an increased interest in returning to the Internet.  So… go figure.  Nearly one in four American homes have at least three computers while one in seven (15%) have no computer at all.  Just under half of the Internet users (44%) post photos online, but, more significantly, that is four times the number of people who did so a little more than five years ago in 2003.  A significant percentage of Internet users (44%) say they are ignored because another member of the household spends too much time online but even more (48%) say they are ignored because of television watching.  And although quite a number (28%) of adults say their children spend too much time using the Internet, the report says a larger percentage of adults say their children spend too much time watching television, and an even larger percentage of adults say their children spend the ‘right amount of time’ online.

      INTERNET FUTURE FINDINGS:  Not too surprisingly, four out of five experts and stakeholders surveyed (81%) say the mobile phone will be the primary connection for most people in the world by the year 2020, and that with its increased computing power the phone will be the only Internet connection for a majority of people by then.  Also not too surprisingly, two thirds (67%) agreed with the scenario of people talking to their computing devices in public and even ‘air-typing’ on invisible keyboards.  Somewhat surprising, the vast majority (81%) says that despite all the current talk about IPv6 and www2 next generation Internet, next-generation research will be used to improve the current Internet, rather than replace it.  Also despite all the current talk about copyright issues, two thirds (61%) doubt that copyright controls using new technology will be in place and enforced.  More than half (55%) disagreed with the scenario painted of greater social tolerance evolving because of the wider exposure to others brought about by the Internet.  The group was evenly split (44% agreeing, 45% disagreeing) over whether people will be more open to sharing their personal opinions, information and emotions by the year 2020.

Disclaimers:  The Internet Future report has been out for some time, but received little coverage.  So, in light of the digital future report, I thought it was worth re-visiting.  Also, in the interest of openness, I am one of the 1,196 “experts” and/or “stakeholders” surveyed.        

      THANK YOU:  To all those people who responded to the personal perspective Message from Michael sent out last week.  I don’t know that I have ever had that amount of response to a message ever.  As I often say, I try to make these messages fact-based and avoid opinions and commentary.  But sometimes there are things that need to be, or should be, said.

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