Message From Michael - August 10, 2009

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        August 10, 2009                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

      VIDEO VIDEO EVERYWHERE

      THE GOVERNMENTAL DOUBLE WHAMMY

      ONE SINGULAR SENSATION

      MISTAKES THEY’VE MADE A FEW

 

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      VIDEO VIDEO EVERYWHERE:  It seems like every other week there is another report about the growth in online video usage and, yes, here are some more.  The Pew Internet and American Life Project reports that the percentage of ONLINE Americans visiting video sharing sites has nearly doubled in the past three years from 33% in December 2006 to 62% in April of this year.  Research firm eMarketer says 70% of the U.S. Internet population will watch videos online this year and that percentage will jump to 85% by 2013.  A coalition of media groups including Yahoo, Warner Brothers and Media Lab among others found that a third of online videos (34%) are shared in some way – through emails, social networking or IM’ing.  Researchers Ipsos/ Media CT say online video viewing accounts for a greater percentage of Americans’ ‘entertainment time” than ever. 

What is different in these reports is that the amount of longer form online video viewing is also increasing dramatically.  Ipsos says a quarter (26%) of online Americans have streamed a TV show while one in seven (14%) have streamed a full-length movie.  Although the percentages are slightly different, Pew came back with the same finding, that longer form video viewing has doubled in two years.  A third of Internet users (35%) watched either a full length TV show or movie online in the latest survey, compared to half that (16%) in 2007. What is also different is that the reports indicate that the online viewing is becoming an alternative (albeit a small one) to traditional TV viewing.  For example, the Pew report says that a fifth of Americans (22%) have cut back on either cable or television services over the past year while only a tenth (9%) say they have cut back on Internet service.  Partially that is because of other features of Internet service, such as search and surfing but part of it is because more of them are connecting their computer to their TV.  Research site ChangeWave which says its goal is “helping you profit from change” says Baby Boomers in particular are watching less traditional TV, by a five to one margin.  It’s not exactly an apples to apples comparison, but the researchers say boomers now spend less time watching TV (11.8 hours a week) than they do online (12.9 hours per week) although that time is all Internet activity and not just video watching.

What is even more different (and a little scary for broadcasters) is a report by CBS’s head of research, David Poltrack, that online video ads could become more attractive than traditional TV ads because online video ads in the longer form videos ‘capture a more attentive audience that can be more easily targeted.’  Readers will remember a previous Message report about the growing demand for online video ads.  Polatrack says the audience for premium web content is up a third (36%) year to year.  That attentive audience is why that coalition mentioned earlier (Yahoo, et al) says that video sharing has become so prevalent that businesses should target their ads at these ‘most active sharers.’

Disclaimers:  Although Hulu is leading the charge in the growth of online video usage, at least one person isn’t buying it.  NATPE CEO Rick Feldman says that’s because advertisers and consumers aren’t buying it.  The reasoning goes back to the issue raised in last week’s Message about the battle over “free” on the Internet.  Feldman says unless Hulu changes its business model (to include more ads and probably subscription fees as well), Hulu will be history in three years.  And although ChangeWave and others indicate online video poses a threat to traditional TV, Ipsos and others say it’s way too early to say that.  The researchers at Ipsos note that the average American WITH Internet access still watches 15 hours of Television a week compared to only two hours of video on their PC.  Their survey showed that even among digital users, two thirds (64%) would rather watch hour long dramas and half hour long comedies on their TV, rather than renting, buying or watching on their PC.  

      THE GOVERNMENTAL DOUBLE WHAMMY:  The new chairman of the Federal Communications Commission has announced his agency, too, will start an inquiry into the state of journalism in the digital age.  You will recall from a previous Message that the Federal Trade Commission has announced that it will be holding a series of workshops starting in September asking the question – Can News Media Survive the Internet Age.  Now, new FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski in an interview with Broadcasting and Cable says he has “real concerns, as many Americans do, about what is going on in America with respect to newspapers, local news and information.”  Genachowski is following the lead set by Commissioner and former acting chairman Michael J. Copps who has circulated a memorandum amongst the commissioners outlining his concerns and issues to address.  Ironically, the memo has not been made public but some indication of Copps’ stance can seen from a speech at a conference in Minneapolis where he said it was time “to put a cop back on the beat” when it comes to FCC oversight of broadcasters.  He called it a “down payment on Media Democracy” and promised ‘meaningful review’ of licenses.  FCC Chairman Genachowski said there is no timetable for the review which -- considering the agenda set by the chairman -- may be some time.  Topping his agenda is, of course, the broadband stimulus effort, followed by review of the Children’s Television Act, the wrap-up of the DTV transition, indecency cases and so on and so on.

As a side note, although it has been reported, some of Genachowski’s views may be seen from his background as a senior executive at IAC as well as being on the board of directors of Expedia, Hotels.com, The Motley Fool and Web.com.  In case you haven’t heard of IAC, it is an Internet company whose “mission is to harness the power of interactivity to make daily life easier and more productive for people all over the world.”  Specifically, it has 50 sub-companies, including The Daily Beast, Ask.com, Dictionary.com, CollegeHumor.com, Vimeo as well as a plethora of dating sites – Match.com, loveandseek.com, BBpeople.com, Singleparent.com as well as just odd sites.  New commissioner Mignon Clyburn is a member of the South Carolina Public Service Commission, former publisher of a weekly newspaper in Charleston, South Carolina, and daughter of House majority whip James Clyburn.  New Commissioner Meredith Atwell Baker was with the NTIA overseeing the digital coupon program and is the daughter of former Senator Majority Leader Howard Baker.   

      ONE SINGULAR SENSATION:  It may be that, but not everybody believes, to use the next lyric from A Chorus Line, that it’s going to be “a thrilling combination.”  “IT” is The Singularity – the creation of a ‘super intelligence’ using Artificial Intelligence (AI) from advanced computers and robots.  Yes, it sounds like the stuff of science fiction, but there is a Singularity Institute and a Singularity University that have been created to further this concept and in October there will be a Singularity Summit held in New York City, drawing scientists, futurists and ‘transhumanists’ from around the world.  And, yes, you’re wondering what this has to do with media.  Well, much of the language in AI is from programming language systems like Perl, Java, and C++.  Plus, the AI computers/robots are developing the ability to ‘breed’ in the sense that they can create new, more advanced computers/robots, which, in turn, will create new, more advanced devices which, in turn, will create new, more advanced devices and so on and so on.  Suddenly ‘new media’ takes on a whole new twist.  Anyway, more on this in later MfM’s.

 

      MISTAKES THEY’VE MADE A FEW:  But then again, a few too many.  And the “they” in this case are the reporters for The New York Times.  According to a column by the Times’ public editor, the story about Walter Cronkite’s death by reporter Allesandra Stanley had seven factual errors in it.  I know this falls into commentary, which I try to avoid, but the irony that a story about a journalist would have so many journalistic errors is hard not to comment on.  It gets worse.  Public editor Hoyt Clark says that “Stanley was the cause of so many corrections in 2005 that she was assigned a single copy editor responsible for checking her facts.”  Amazing.  She apparently got better after the special attention, but after the Cronkite article, she’s going to get “special attention” again.  Even though Hoyt says Stanley is “a prolific writer much admired by editors for the intellectual heft of her coverage of television,” I have to say that I can never read any of her material again with any sense of comfort.

As a foot note, when I was a semi-young newspaper reporter still suffering under the delusion that editors actually edited, I wrote a story about a city council meeting that had a lead line something like this:  “More than a thousand city employees, including my father, got a three percent raise thanks to the city council.”  My father did work for the city in a minor position at the time, and I assumed the editors would catch the humor and edit it out.  After it made it to the first edition of the newspaper, I had to explain my little attempt at humor to a furious Managing Editor, before it made it to the final edition.

 

      And as a foot note that will say something about my readers:  I wonder how many of you thought of Frank Sinatra’s My Way versus Queen’s We Are The Champions versus Smokey Robinson’s Ooo Baby Baby when you read the headline. 

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