Message From Michael 
January 12, 2010
THE OPAQUE CRYSTAL BALL
TRITE BUT TRUE
THE ELECTRONIC CRYSTAL BALL
TOYS ON PARADE
LOOKING FOR VIDEO WITH ALL THE RIGHT DEVICES
FOOTNOTE – HAPPY TRAILS
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THE OPAQUE CRYSTAL BALL: As promised in the final Message from last year, the first message for this year will be a look ahead. After reading numerous articles from various publications, it comes down to this – Thank God, 2009 is over. Or put another way, 2010 has to be better. Okay, I admit, that’s not good enough. But it doesn’t get much better than that when you look at the various predictions and prognostications. For example, online video is going to surge in growth. Whoa, color me surprised. Not! (More on this below.) Anyway, as we’ve noted before, word of mouth is the most powerful persuader. An explanation for the video growth may be that “visual buzz”, according to an article in Promo Magazine may be even more powerful. Just behind that soothsaying observation about online video in the number of forecasts is that going green and going mobile are the other two major trends going to happen. All three consulting groups responding to broadcast news report The Rundown’s annual ‘year ahead’ survey said it – go mobile, use mobile, win mobile. Not to discount this, but for perspective, research firm eMarketer reports that mobile advertising will account for $416 Million of the $25 Billion that will be spent overall for online advertising. Of course it is the fastest growing, expected to reach $1.56 Billion by 2013. New Media guru Daisy Whitney chimed in with a similar message in her five trends to watch in 2010, noting in particular Mobile App company Scvngr which designs games that can be adapted to specific locations from
In very much a similar vein of forecasts that are fundamental, the experts are predicting advertisers will turn to digital media more and more in 2010. But putting some hard numbers to that predictable prediction, a survey of advertising execs by Round2 Communications and reported by Media Daily News says three quarters (72%) will increase their spending on digital media. More than four out of five (86%) say their spending on ‘traditional media’ (broadcast TV, radio, print) will either remain flat (45.7%) or drop (40.3%). It should be noted that despite all the woes associated with print, the article points out that print still garners the lion’s share of media spending with nearly half (47%) saying it is their major investment. Part of the reason for the surge in digital, according to “longtime industry practitioner” Keith Kelsen, as quoted in Marketing Vox, is better engagement, better measurement, better standards and more investment.
TRITE BUT TRUE: Content is King. How often have you heard that? Well, revelation of revelation, Kelsen also says that even in the digital world, “content will be the #1 trend.” It’s a slightly different take on the theme, but also familiar and similar, the folks at Nielsen say even in the Internet world, “the audience is the center of everything.” Isn’t that a great way to put it? Also in the ‘trite-but-true’ category, is another forecast that also has an interesting ring to it – “clear is the new clever.” This clever turn of phrase comes from Rosen, quoted above, who believes brands need to be more transparent in how they do business. And, oh, yes, social media. That, too, is one of the major trends to watch in the upcoming year. Trite, but true.
THE ELECTRONIC CRYSTAL BALL: Maybe, possibly, probably, the best predictor of the future came in the form of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) that just ended. Veteran publication PCWorld summed it up humorously and somewhat accurately when it reported that CES should stand for “Crammed with E-Readers and Slates.” For example, if you think Kindle when you think e-book, think again. There were seven new versions introduced, all with features that the others don’t have. And if you think slate refers to a rock formation, think again. It is a keyboard-less, thin, compact touch video screen that allows you to do a lot of what a computer traditionally has done. If you wonder, by the way, what’s the difference between a slate and a tablet… well, most observers admit there isn’t a difference. Just different names. Anyway, add to the PCWorld equation, 3-D, and you would probably sum up CES pretty well.
There were some fun, fascinating and futuristic developments, but it’s some of the less spectacular devices unveiled that will really show what the future holds. For example, 17 products using the Superspeed U.S.B. 3.0 connection device were unveiled. Before you say whoop-de-doo, know this key fact—the speed of transfer jumps from an impressive 540Mbps for 2.0 connectors to a wow-whopping 5Gbps for 3.0 devices. That means that game, that file transfer, turns minutes to seconds and seconds to near instantaneous. Something I noticed, which others didn’t talk about much, was the number of devices (computers, slates, tablets, iPhones, Smartphone’s) that incorporate touch screen technology. Also in the semi-dull but nevertheless-important category, was the issue of the Open Internet which all parties at the show appeared to agree to, and the lurking issue of using broadcast spectrum for broadband use. But it’s the ‘toys’ that make consumer electronics a $165 Billion business, according to numbers presented by CEA President Gary Shapiro.
TOYS ON PARADE: Probably nothing says more about the ‘toys on parade’ atmosphere than the fact that Ford has introduced a touch dashboard on its cars which allows you to connect to the Internet via USB port, play different media on its screen display and operate mobile apps. Driving? That’s something else. And what could be as much of a commentary as anything, a) the company introduced the device at the Consumer Electronics Show and not at the Detroit Auto Show, and b) if you checked media coverage of the two shows, CES got probably ten times as much coverage as the once vaunted auto show. In any case, in the Last Gadget Standing part of the show, tech journalists and bloggers pick out their ten favorite gadgets. This year’s pick included the Haier Ibiza Trainer which combines a music player with a pedometer, with a calorie counter, with a heart rate monitor; the Sony Dash which is likened to a bedside radio except that it has more than 1000 apps on it, to connect you to music sites and news sites, YouTube, Pandora, Epicurious, Crackle and Blip.tv – all to help you get up in the morning. And you’ve no doubt heard about all the 3-D television devices introduced, but Acer has gone a step further, introducing a 3-D computer.
LOOKING FOR VIDEO WITH ALL THE RIGHT DEVICES: Going back to the earlier prediction about online video growth, nothing says that more than the number of video devices introduced at CES. There’s the Boxee Box which connects the Internet to your TV, which isn’t so new, but its marketing people say it’s so easy – even a zebra could use it. I didn’t know zebras were not supposed to be smart. Anyway, there are others. Both LG and Panasonic introduced Skype support for their HDTV’s so you can video chat with friends and family in high definition. Scary thought. Settop maker Syabas introduced PopBox, a home media player with 20 partners, letting you connect Blip.TV, Twitter, Clicker (which finds premium videos on the Inter) to your TV easily and simply. Router maker D-Link introduced a media streamer called the Pebble, which lets you play video, still photos and music from your home network or connected devices, even feeds from a security camera. Data storage maker Imation introduced a yet-un-named wireless USB ‘shark fin’ that plus into your LCD television via HDMI, grabbing audio and video from your computer at 15MB per second. D-Link also introduced a boxie little device that, appropriately, uses the Boxee home media management system to stream Internet video to your TV wirelessly.
FACTOID FEVER: As an alternative to Cocktail Chatter, here are some digital media factoids from your friends at Nielsen. There are 195 Million active U.S. Internet users. Now, this part didn’t come from Nielsen, but I have to add it here –
FOOTNOTE: As a personal aside, the start of this year saw the end of a news tradition. Kim and Dick Standish announced that the long running (28 years) newsletter The Rundown has published its last edition. The weekly ‘message’ was a compendium of what worked and what didn’t work, success stories and not-so-successful stories about the broadcast news business. From the General Managers, News Directors, Marketing Directors, producers and reporters in the trenches. Now we have to say (and Kim would admit) that it’s not quite up there with the announcement that the ‘bible of the newspaper industry,’ better known as Editor and Publisher, has ceased publication, but it’s right up there. That’s another comment on media and wowser – E&P ceasing publication. Anyway, our best to Kim and her husband; and here’s a tip to some academic researcher, the back issues and archives would be a treasure trove of the history of the business.
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