Message From Michael 
February 15, 2010
IT’S A MAD, MAD, MOBILE WORLD
INTERNET HIGHWAY ROAD HOGS
A GLOBAL MOBILE PERSPECTIVE
A MESSAGE FROM CISCO
GOOGLE BUZZ FOOTNOTE
BRITAIN’S ANSWER TO JON STEWART
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IT’S A MAD, MAD, MOBILE WORLD: Mobile data traffic grew by more than 160% over the last year and is expected to double every year for the next four years, increasing 39 times between now and 2014. That’s according to the annual Cisco Visual Networking Index report on mobile traffic growth. And if that doesn’t stun you, think about this. There were 1.13 Billion phones shipped worldwide last year, and that was actually down from the year before when it was 1.19 Billion phones, according to IDC’s worldwide mobile phone tracker. To put that in perspective, keep in mind there’s an estimated 6.7 Billion men, women and children, total, in the world. So a sixth of the world’s population got a new phone last year. And, according to the Cisco report, two thirds (66%) of ALL mobile data traffic will be video by 2014. That video growth is supported by the latest Nielsen A2M2 (Anytime Anywhere Media Measurement) report which says the mobile video audience grew 70% year to year while the online video audience grew 46%. Nielsen makes the point that media multi-tasking is now a permanent part of the media consumption equation. Again, though, by way of perspective, Nielsen notes that TV still accounts for 99% of all video viewing – specifically, 140 hours of video viewing on TV versus 27 hours of video viewing online and three hours on mobile devices. That, in no way, diminishes the growing importance of mobile video. As the Cisco report notes, mobile traffic translates into 3.6 Exabytes of data scurrying around the world every month.
INTERNET HIGHWAY ROAD HOGS. Part of the reason for all that growth – smartphone adoption worldwide. The average smartphone user generates 10 times the amount of traffic generated by the average non-smartphone user. In terms of mobile data traffic, the laptop is the road hog, taking up 1300 times the amount of traffic as the average non-smartphone. The latest addition to the mobile world – Picoprojectors used to project images and videos from a mobile device use 300 times the amount of data traffic as the average non-smartphone. And those e-readers so many of you bought and got for Christmas? Actually they only use twice as much data traffic as the non-smartphone. But that’s not the least of it. The report also notes the growth in “augmented reality” applications which use either the iPhone’s 3GS or the Android’s compass capabilities along with the camera and GPS capabilities to provide additional information about whatever restaurant, business or building you point the camera at. If you want an example of this, do a search for Sekai Camera, and you will see an example. Point the camera and you will get instant feedback, including directions, messages, reviews… all kinds of information overlaid on whatever you have on your screen. Not only that, you can add your own information.
A GLOBAL MOBILE PERSPECTIVE. Italians have more smart phones than anybody else in the world – more than a third (36%) of all their mobile phones are smartphones compared to just under a third (32%) for the U.S. And smart phone use is expected to continue to grow faster in Italy, reaching two thirds (67%) of all use, compared to just over a half (55%) for the U.S. Why is that, don’t you wonder? As long as you’re wondering about that, wonder about this. South Africans make more use of the Mobile Internet (48.5%) at home than anybody else in the world – just under half (48.5%) compared to just over a third (37.6%) in the U.S. India (at 45.9%) and the United Kingdom (at 45.6%) aren’t far behind South Africa. The Chinese make greater use of the Mobile Internet at work than anybody else in the world, although only slightly more so – right at a third (32.7%) compared to Korea’s 31.7%, India’s 30.4% and America’s 19.6%. The French make greater use of the Mobile Internet “on the go” than anybody else in the world, but again only slightly so – 45.2% compared to Mexico’s 44.2% and America’s 42.6%. South Africans also have more Mobile Only Voice Access than anybody else in the world – nearly half (48%) compared to a quarter for America (25%) and India (24%) – which I find amazing having been to India several times and it seems everybody had mobiles. The Italians (at 39%) and the Brazilians (at 35%) aren’t far behind the South Africans in Mobile Only Voice Access. Western Europe (at 691 kbps) and Japan (at 690 kbps) are virtually tied in terms of Smartphone mobile speed – well ahead of the U.S. (at 418 kbps). By the way, Finland’s Nokia is the world’s largest maker of cell phones, accounting for over a third (38.7%) of all cell phones sold worldwide, which is more than double Korea-based Samsung (18.1%) and four times Korea’s other cell phone company, LG (8.8%). But here’s the one wonder to really wonder about. In the Cisco report, outlining mobile data traffic growth by region, it includes – Outer Space which (I kid you not) accounts for 0.0006 Terabytes of data a month this past year but is expected to grow a whopping 284% to 0.2934 Terabytes by 2014.
A MESSAGE FROM CISCO. You know, that doesn’t quite have the ring of a Message from Michael. Regardless, the message in the Cisco report can be summed up in its long-term outlook headline: Device Diversification and Ubiquitous Mobility. As the report says, mobile voice service is already considered a necessity by many, and mobile data, video and TV services are “becoming an essential part of consumers’ lives.” Mobile video adoption is expected to continue ‘unabated’ and with it, a need to increase backhaul capacity. (A reminder – keep in mind the arguments in Washington about television spectrum being co-opted for broadband use.) With the proliferation of devices, the Cisco report says they need to be connected seamlessly… and that applications and services will need to be shared to create “a highly enriched mobile broadband experience.” The report says new partnerships, ecosystems and strategic consolidations are expected (probably should be changed to needed) because “operators must solve the challenge of effectively monetizing video traffic” in part because people will want a ‘wired experience’ from wireless technologies.
GOOGLE BUZZ FOOTNOTE. Obviously this message is all about mobile, but as always, there are some things too important not to note. The unveiling of Google’s answer to Facebook and Twitter is one of those. Like those, Buzz allows people to share updates, videos, photos, link and conversations. But it goes beyond that, allowing people to pull images from links, play videos, flip through videos and share them either publicly or privately. Also, it starts with a head start – it is part of the Gmail system which has 176 Million users, according to comScore. By way of perspective, despite Google’s behemoth status, its Gmail actually trails Microsoft’s Hotmail which has 369 Million users and Yahoo Mail which has 304 Million users. Add to that the other Google properties, such as Picasa, Google Reader and YouTube. Depending on which review you read, it is a game changer… like the iPad; or it’s just a variation of what already exists… like the iPad. Critics note Google’s past efforts with Orkut which caught on in Brazil but nowhere else, and Dodgeball which actually had to be shut down. What may make this different, according to an analysis by Business Week and other publications, is Google’s foothold on advertising.
BRITAIN’S ANSWER TO JON STEWART. His name is Charlie Brooker, and his video showing “how to report the news” is making the rounds of media moguls, mavens and maniacs everywhere. In fact, it was one of YouTube’s top-rated video with 750,000 views. But that is only the start. His screenwipe series covers everything from “a career in telly” to politicians in the media. He is a columnist for The Guardian newspaper in the U.K., but also as one site put – a writer, satirist and grumpy television reviewer. You can find his video’s on YouTube of course, although his ‘normal’ video home is the BBC Four. So, recommendation of the week: Carve out an hour of your precious time, go to YouTube, do a search for Charlie Brooker, and sit back and enjoy.
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