Message from Michael - News Source Use - November 10, 2010

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        November 10, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

      IF YOU TORTURE THE NUMBERS LONG ENOUGH

      NEWSPAPERS VERSUS TELEVISION

      NEW HAMPSHIRE ON MY MIND

      THE FACEBOOK WITCHING HOUR

      IF I WERE A RICH MAN

 

 

      IF YOU TORTURE THE NUMBERS LONG ENOUGH:  As the saying goes, they will admit to anything.  That phrase comes to mind after reading the 247WallSt./ Harris Interactive poll on news and media consumption.  The release by Harris Interactive argues that “traditional media is in trouble.”  The release by 24/7 Wall St goes even further, declaring that the conventional wisdom that “the print industry is dead” is correct.  I was even tempted to resurrect an old satiric headline – STTYWYAK (Stee-We-Ak) – which stands for Studies That Tell You What You Already Know.  But the numbers don’t quite support those conclusions.    While nearly half (43%) say the day of the printed newspaper is gone, four-fifths (81%) say that, while newspapers will continue to decline, there will always be a need for newspapers.  More than half (55%) either ‘strongly agree’ or ‘somewhat agree’ that traditional media as we know it will no longer exist in ten years; But two thirds (67%) say they prefer to get their news in more traditional ways, through either television, newspapers or magazines.  Before you say, ‘ah, yes, Michael, but the younger people…” Well, no, it isn’t significantly different for them.  A few more (47% of the 18-34 demographic versus 43% of the general online population) say the day of the printed newspaper is gone; Only slightly less (76% versus 81%) of the 18-34 year olds say there will always be a need for newspapers in print.  But only slightly fewer (51% versus 55%) of the 18 to 34 year olds believe traditional media will no longer exist in ten years.  (By the way, aren’t you glad I didn’t use the Mark Twain quote that reports of my death are greatly exaggerated, which is so over-used, for the headline.)

It is significant that fewer (57% versus 67%) of the younger demo say they prefer to get their news in more traditional ways.  That becomes even more significant when you look at the question about getting “almost all my news online.” Two thirds (65%) of the younger demographic say that’s true of them while only half (50%) of the general online population say that’s true of them.  But then again, when asked how often they go to different news sources when looking for news, the number one choice is….. local television news, with three-quarters (76%) of the general online population saying they go to local TV ‘all the time’ or ‘occasionally’ and two-thirds ( 63%) of the 18-34 demographic picking local TV.  Local newspapers came in second in BOTH groups, with two thirds of the general population picking newspapers and more than half (56%) of the 18 to 34 year olds.  Very interestingly (to me at least) “websites that aggregate different news sources” came in fifth for both groups (49% for overall and 52% for 18-34.)

OBSERVATIONS: None of this diminishes the basic point of the report about the changes in media consumption habits.  If anything it validates (in my mind, at least) the point made in a previously reported Pew News Consumption study that much of the younger people’s news consumption comes through grazing.  They seem to ‘stumble’ on to news rather than specifically looking for news.  I say that because of the way the question is worded:  “when you are looking for news, how often do you go to each of these news sources.”  That may explain why news aggregation sites came in fifth.  It should also be noted that when asked about the amount of time spent on the various media, consistently more than half say it has not changed.  Visiting online news and information sites did indeed show the greatest increase for the overall population(28%); Interestingly enough, that was roughly the same for the 18-34 year olds (29%).  Actually it was the 35-44 demographic that showed the greatest increase in online news usage (34%).  That same demographic also had the highest percentage (59%) going to news aggregation sites. 

Lastly, a disclaimer: The Harris poll relies on an online panel of people who have agreed to take these surveys.  That may explain why, when you read the fine print (known as the methodology) Harris Interactive says they avoid the words “margin of error” because, they say, all surveys and polls are subject to multiple sources of error which are hard to quantify.  Or, as one of the leading researchers here at the Grady College of Journalism put it, that just means in today’s technological environment, the results are still basically a SWAG – Scientific Wild Assed Guess.           

      NEWSPAPERS VERSUS TELEVISION:  Somewhat related to the above article, I give you two sets of numbers.  Numbers recently released by the Audit Bureau of Circulations show the circulation for the top 25 newspapers continues to drop.  Only one newspaper, the Wall Street Journal, showed an increase and it was a meager one – 1.82%.  With a circulation of 2,061,142, it is the nation’s most popular newspaper, ahead of USA Today with 1,830,594 (down 3.66%) and The New York Times which had a circulation of 876,638 (down 5.52%).  By way of comparison, and yes it’s probably unfair, for the week of October 25, NBC’s nightly news cast averaged 8.06 Million viewers, ABC had 7.4 Million and CBS had 5.5 Million.  In any case, back to the newspaper top ten list, it’s Los Angeles Times (600K), The Washington Post (545K), New York Daily News (512K), New York Post (501K), Chicago Tribune (441K), the Houston Chronicle (344K) and The Philadelphia Inquirer (342K).

      THE FACEBOOK WITCHING HOUR:  According to a report by social media management firm Vitrue, the best time to post on Facebook is 3 p.m. on Wednesday.  Seriously.  Of course it’s a little more complicated than that.  After analyzing two months of Facebook traffic, including 1.6 Million posts and 7.6 Million comments, the researchers say there are three peak periods during the day:  11 a.m., 3p.m., and 8 p.m. EST.  And let me emphasize, that’s during the work day.  The authors speculate that the 3 p.m. activity is a combination of factors, including lunch time on the west coast, break time on the east coast, and kids coming home from school.  In a similar vein, 11 a.m. could be a combination of the start of the work day on the west coast and the break before lunch on the east coast. Then, for whatever reason, on Wednesday, there are more interactions than any other day of the week. It just beats Tuesday (by 7%) and Thursday (11%).  Weekends, not too surprisingly, are the lowest.  The report makes an important distinction between posts and comments.  For example, Monday is actually the biggest day for postings (286,000) followed by Tuesday (252K), Wednesday (248K), Thursday (234K) and Friday (230K).  Sunday came in next (203K), with Saturday last (184K).  But people were in a more ‘talkative’ mood on Wednesday, which had the most comments (1.528 Million), followed by Tuesday(1.414 M), Thursday (1.371 M), Friday (1.322 M) and Monday (1.214 M).  Oddly, Saturday generated more comments (841 K) than Sunday (799 K).  The report titled Facebook Management makes the point that the combination of posting, commenting, liking and sharing is part of a two-way conversation and that it’s all about engagement.  In case you have any questions about the importance of Facebook use, the report quotes the Alexa research group which says Facebook reaches a third (35%) of all Internet users on any given day with the average user spending 55 minutes a day on the social networking site.             

      NEW HAMPSHIRE ON MY MIND:  The “granite state” has the distinction of having the highest Internet penetration in the United States with nine out of ten residents (90.1%) having Internet connection.  That is only slightly higher than the other top five: New Jersey (87.8%), Utah (87.6%), Connecticut (86.5%) and Massachusetts (86.2%).  According to Internet World Stats, the U.S. average is 77.3% and that is three times the average for the rest of the world (26.5%). Facebook use in the U.S. is seven times (43%) the rest of the world (5.9%).  Less than half of the 1.2 Million New Hampshirites are on Facebook (44.5%), although that is slightly higher than the U.S. average.  The state with the lowest Internet penetration is Mississippi (59.3%), although oddly that doesn’t translate into the lowest Facebook penetration (30.3%).  That distinction goes to West Virginia (28.7%) even though it has a much higher Internet penetration (70.5%).  Not surprisingly, as America’s most populous state, California had the highest number of Internet users (29.8 Million) although its Internet penetration rate was only slightly above average (79.7%).  The second most populous state, Texas, had the second highest number of Internet users (17.2 Million) although its Internet penetration was well below average (68.6%).  And just to keep the world balance to my message, Advertising Age reports that there were 384 Million Chinese online in 2009, up 29% from 2008; and 223 Million mobile Internet users.  Writer Abbey Klaasen notes that for every Internet service in the U.S., there is a Chinese equivalent.  For Facebook, it’s RenRen and Kaixin; for Foursquare it’s Jiapang; for Twitter, it’s Sina’s Weibo; for Zynga’s Farmville, it’s  Kaixin’s Happy Farm.  And as mentioned in a previous message, the Chinese instant messaging service is QQ which was created by the growing Internet firm, Tencent.

      IF I WERE A RICH MAN:  No, no, it’s not Tevye, and I don’t know if he has to work hard, but Rush Limbaugh is the top money maker amongst political pundits, according to Newsweek and a research firm called Wealth X, pulling in $58.7 Million.  Eat your heart out, Katie Couric.  Far back in second place is Glenn Beck with a mere $33 Million, followed by Sean Hannity ($22M), Bill O’Reilly ($20 M), Jon Stewart ($15 M), Sarah Palin ($14 M), Don Imus ($11 M), Bill Clinton ($7.7M), Keith Olbermann ($7.5 M) and at number ten, Rudy Giuliani ($7 M).  Stewart cohort Stephen Colbert tied at #13 with $5 Million.  The rest are the ‘usual suspects’ –Bill Maher ($4 M), Joe Scarborough ($3.5 M), Bob Woodward ($2.5 M).  I shouldn’t probably admit this, but there were quite a few Millionaire pundits I didn’t recognize, including: Jorge Ramos, the Mexican news anchor for Noticiero Univision, although there is another news anchor for Telemundo, New York with the same name; Fareed Zakaria, who hosts CNN’s foreign affairs show and is Editor-at-Large of Time magazine; Bob Barnett who I suspect is the Washington lawyer and political strategist and not the wrestler; and Eduardo “Piolin” Sotelo, a Mexican radio personality who hosts a morning radio talk show in Los Angeles. 

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.