Message from Michael - the year of living dangerously - December 30, 2010

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        December 30, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

      THE YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY

      JULES VERNE VERSUS LEONARDA DA VINCI

      CONFESSIONS OF A SERIAL PROCRASTINATOR

 

 

       THE YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY:  For journalists, 2011 may be that year.  The Peter Weir movie starring Mel Gibson (before he himself became dangerous), Linda Hunt and Sigourney Weaver traces the transformation of an Australian reporter during the political turmoil surrounding Indonesian president Sukarno’s  overthrow.  The transformation this year may not be as sexy but it is definitely more significant.  Already signs of that transformation can be seen in the increased use of user-generated content by CNN and Fox News, crowd-sourcing of news by Forbes and other magazines and, of course, online efforts by newspapers far and wide.  Moves designed, yes, to improve the quality and reach of the news, but also to improve the bottom-line.  Interestingly (Yes, I know, I use that word too often), some of the predictions on the future of journalism come from non-journalists, like PR firms Edelman and JWT (J. Walter Thompson).  In its tech blog, The Naked Pheasant, (and no, I have no idea where the name comes from), Edelman’s practitioners argue that news will become more ‘hyper-local’ and ‘hyper-social’ through “a combination of owner and user generated news… pushed to users based on location.”  JWT takes a slightly different but related tact, predicting the rise of “entrepreneurial journalism” with the next generation of journalists employing ‘hybrid skills’ that combine traditional journalism with business and technology.  The JWT list of “100 things to watch in 2011” also predicts that “as media shrinks to fit our attention spans, the novelty of long-form journalism will stand out” and will be delivered through e-readers and other electronic devices.  Along with that, the pr firm’s prognosticators see a new generation of documentarians whose access to cheap video cameras and software will fuel “an expansion of video storytelling and visual experimentation.”  The report cites the Sundance Film Festival’s planned user-generated documentary Life in a Day, which you lucky readers heard about some months ago.  Meanwhile, back in the day-to-day world of broadcasting, there is a question of – what next.  You’ve no doubt heard of the Houston television station which is planning to experiment with no-anchor newscasts.  Extreme maybe, but as Scripps CEO Richard Boehne told TVNewsCheck editor Harry A. Jessell, there is, as he so adroitly puts it, a “plague of sameness” in local TV news.      

But, back to the theme of ‘dangerous.’  And, now we’re slipping into commentary, although I prefer the term reporting.  Edelman CEO Rick Edelman writes in his online blog about former PR practitioner Wendell Potter’s book Deadly Spin which warns that Americans, including journalists, are subject to the PR spin-meisters “whose loyalty to their clients outweighs the public’s right to the truth.”  Almost needless to say, Edelman disagrees, saying a business’s long-term success “is only achieved by honest and accurate communications.”  Regular readers will remember previous messages about custom content or custom publishing, which are sometimes disparagingly called content farms or content mills… sort of like puppy mills.  Now, media mogul (don’t you love that description?) Barry Diller has gotten into the act with his IAC group Pronto starting what it calls The Writer’s Network where freelancers can earn a whopping $15 an article for writing things like how to fold napkins, according to an article in AdAge.com.  The three leading content mill services are Demand Media, Associated Content and Examiner.com.  Associated content is already associated with Yahoo.  Now, USA Today has struck a deal to syndicate travel stories from Demand Media, and AdWeek, under a headline ‘Examiner Gets Legitimate’ reports that Reuters has struck a similar deal with Examiner to use tips and articles from its… get this…. 65-thousand contributors.  That’s scary enough, but here is where it gets really scary… or dangerous… IMHO:  While doing research on predictions for 2011, I ran across an interesting website called openforum.com, which had a slew of articles like 11 trends for small businesses in 2011, top app trends for 2011, the rise of a new breed of blogger in 2011.  And the list went on and on.  And the source of this really cool, neat site?  American Express.  It was custom publishing at its best, and in that story, my friends, lies a lesson.  What, I don’t know.  You tell me.

Continuing the theme of living dangerously, the other trend to watch out for in 2011 in going to be the debate about privacy versus personalization.  Because we have dealt with this in previous messages, we won’t belabor the point.  Okay, maybe a little.  The JWT top ten list for 2011 says that while technology will become so integral a part of people’s lives that it is almost like breathing, that people will also want to “de-tech” and get away from the technology saturation.  It even headlines one of its 100 things to watch in 2011 as “ignorance is bliss”… meaning that people will reach a point of not wanting to know.  Lastly, in this footnote, two or three of the 2011 predictions talk about International cyber-attacks.  Again, we’ve talked about this in a previous Message in which the Council on Foreign Relations published an article by an under-secretary of defense who talked about the cyber war being waged between companies and countries.  And that… that, folks, is why 2011 may be the year of living dangerously.  

      JULES VERNE VERSUS LEONARDO DA VINCI:  Okay, let’s lighten up a bit.  There is a saying – you can’t predict the future but you can help invent it.  Verne predicted; Da Vinci invented.  This issue is a look forward.  If you want a look backward at what made 2010, take a look at Harry Jessell’s three-part Year in Review series on the  TVNewsCheck website; or Poynter Research’s New Interest Index. In any case, here are some of the meta-tags from each report.  From Jessell: -- multicasting and central casting, retransmission and net neutrality, broadband and broadcast spectrum, Conan O’Brien and Betty White, one-man bands, or  ‘so-called’ backpack journalism; and, of course, the FCC.  From Poynter (and in order of interest): -- Haitian earthquake, BP Oil Leak (yes, I was surprised it was number two, but only slightly with 59% following it versus 60% for Haiti); the Economy, Chilean mine workers, mid-term elections, cold winter, jobless benefits and Arizona immigration and snow storms.  Anyway, all that said….

Let’s get the real obvious predictions out of the way – Mobile (Internet and TV), Social Networking, Online Video and Cloud Computing.  Virtually every prognosticator and prestidigitator mentions at least one, if not all of these, in their crystal ball gazing.  Okay, we all get it.  Yeesh.  Mobile is evidenced by the simple fact, according to marketing intelligence firm IDC, that mobile advertising increased 138% year to year, reaching $877 Million.  Or maybe it’s the fact reported by the Pew Research Center’s Internet and American Life Project that a quarter (26%) of American adults used their cell phone to take part in some way in the 2010 mid-term election while more than half (58%) of those 18-29 used their cell to tell their friends that they voted. Marketing research firm eMarketer released a study that shows people spend more time on their cell phone every day than they do reading newspapers and magazines – an average of 50 minutes a day on their mobile versus 30 minutes reading newspapers and 20 minutes reading magazines.  More evidence is the fact that the Federal Communications Commission wants to convert broadcast spectrum into broadband spectrum because of the growing mobile use.  What takes mobile growth from the Jules Verne prediction mode to the Leonardo Da Vinci invention mode is the development of what is called M2M (Mobile to Mobile or Machine to Machine), or D2D (device to device) technology in which the mobile units talk directly to each other, bypassing the need for a WiFi intermediary.  Next year mobile may become even more mobile.

Social Networking is evidenced by the fact that the world’s largest advertiser, Proctor & Gamble, which created television’s soap opera programming almost single handedly, is switching its marketing dollars from soaps to social networking.  Even Ben and Jerry’s ice cream has gotten into the act, abandoning its email marketing campaign in favor of social network marketing.  Further evidence of the social networking focus is that 11 out of the 12 topics listed for research by the Society for New Communications Research relate to social networking.  The one exception – changing modes of delivery for media and entertainment, and it could be argued that has a social networking undertone.  Online video is evidenced by the fact that Hulu crossed the Billion videos a month mark a year ago, and is going higher, while NetFlix is now providing a streaming video service in addition to DVD rentals and downloading, and that service is expected to become its prime delivery service.  We could cite several examples of the rise of cloud computing but the simplest and best evidence is the simple fact that the two Technology/ Business Behemoths, Microsoft and Google, are going head-to-head to provide competing services.

      CONFESSIONS OF A SERIAL PROCRASTINATOR:  Proof that I also miss things -- Unbelievable as it may seem, I didn’t know about the YouTube Double Rainbow phenomenon.  It’s a video of a ‘mountain man’ who sees two rainbows and freaks out.  How did I miss that?  Did you miss it, too?  If so, you will have a hard time finding the original because there are so many parodies.  Another one that I sort of missed – Groupon – the online service that provides coupons and tips you off to local money-saving deals.  I kept meaning to write about it, but kept putting it off.  A little more than two years old (started in November, 2008), it now has reached the point that Google reportedly offered $6 Billion for it, and a $950 Million equity offering by the company puts its value between $6 Billion and $8 Billion.  And if that isn’t enough to tell you how badly I missed the mark, Forbes and the Wall Street Journal say Groupon will reach $1 Billion in sales – and here’s the important part – “faster than any other business EVER.”  To make up for the ‘miss’ in 2010, the Groupon phenomenon is predicted to be one of the big trends in 2011, according to JWT Intelligence, which says “time sensitive deals” with an “act now” mentality will extend around the world and beyond the Web.

      COCKTAIL CHATTER – Princess Leia.  Of course, you remember the scene from Star Wars in which R2D2 projects the princess via Hologram.  Well, according to IBM’s annual “five for five” prediction list, we will soon be doing that with our cell phones.  Instead of just talking into your mobile device, your mobile device will project a 3D hologram image of the person you are talking to.  The other five include a sensor system in which ‘citizen scientists’ provide data on everything in their environment so that ‘real scientists’ have massive data to pull from; cell phone batteries that rely on air to recharge and last ten years, or even use kinetic energy to recharge small devices; re-routing the heat and energy output of data centers to provide hot water and heating for the cities they’re in; and adaptive traffic systems in which commuters are provided via mobile (of course), data that tells their cars where to go and where not to go.

      FOOTNOTE:  We will be re-grouping and re-presenting a re-formatted Message from Michael in the New Year.  The intent is to make it better, but you tell us – any suggestions for making it better.  We promise we will do our best NOT to screw up a tried and true formula of fact-based, limited commentary reporting… unlike MediaBistro’s recent relaunching of TVSpy which took a tried and true product and made it a trite and trivial product.  Sorry… couldn’t help it.  Commentary.  For those not familiar with it, TVSpy, formerly ShopTalk, is an industry insider newsletter that virtually everyone in broadcasting read.  MediaBistro recently bought it and using algorithms and search engines, instead of real people, has turned it into putrid pubescence (a phrase I stole from the movie Princess Bride.)  And, as they say in the business…stay tuned.    

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