Message from Michael - Mobile and Video - February 23, 2011

Message From Michael                             

                                                                                                                        February 23, 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

    A CASE OF MOBILE CATCH ME IF YOU CAN

    FOR ALL YOU HOCKEY PUCKS OUT THERE

    GENTLEMEN, START YOUR VIDEOS

 

 

    A CASE OF MOBILE CATCH ME IF YOU CAN.  The U.S. has overtaken Europe in mobile media use, but neither is close to Japan and other Asian countries in terms of usage.  That's the headline from comScore's Mobile Year in Review… at least from my perspective.  The Europeans used to lead the U.S., in large part because they adopted the technology of text messaging and Smartphone's much earlier.  But now, say the report authors, nearly half (47%) of the American mobile media audience use connected media compared to a third (34%) of the European audience.  It should be noted here that the comScore report focuses on the five leading European economies (U.K., France, Germany, Spain and Italy).  And the major reason for the American surge?  Possibly this factoid:  More than one in four (29%) users in America have unlimited data plans compared to less than one in ten (9%) of the European users.  The report notes different demographic groups use Mobile at different levels in Europe and the U.S. – a fact that only heightens a key point about Japanese use of Mobile.  It is demographically agnostic (my made-up term).  Or as the authors put it, Mobile usage in Japan is more "balanced" across all age groups.  In large part because Mobile is a "mature" technology in Japan.  Three quarters of Mobile users in Japan (75%) use connected media, compared to the half in the U.S. and the third in Europe.  Here's the other key factoid, which may presage the future for the U.S. and Europe in terms of Mobile use.  In Japan, ten percent of the Mobile subscribers are using their devices like debit or credit cards – so-called "Mobile Wallets", to pay for their purchases.  Interestingly, a recent report on The World produced by Public Radio International says aid organizations in Haiti are encouraging people there to use their cell phones in a similar way.  In America?  Well, Starbucks is experimenting with the idea.    

It is not all sunshine and light though in the mythical mobile Garden of Eden.  All of you smart Message readers already know about the growing traffic congestion problem on the mobile spectrum highway.  In fact, humorously, if you like dark humor, many attendees at the recent Mobile World Congress held in Barcelona, Spain, had problems using their mobile devices because of data overload, according to an article in The New York Times.  And it's only going to get worse.  Network equipment makers Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent expect Mobile data traffic to increase 30-fold in five years time by 2015.  Chinese equipment maker Huawei expects it to increase an astounding 500 times over, in ten years time by 2020.  As challenging as that may be, the comScore report also cited another challenge which, frankly, I had not heard of.  And that is the greater technology fragmentation in the Mobile world as compared to the PC world.  Here is the factoid to back this up – there are more than 60 Mobile browser versions from more than a dozen vendors for the Mobile world. 

An underlying them of the report is that, for mobile usage to 'succeed', it has to be advertiser friendly.  Being advertiser friendly translates in being measurable – and that, say the authors, has been "extremely challenging" because of Mobile's "complex eco-system."  That is why, the authors say that although mobile use will probably result in greater on-line spending, all media planning will have to be cross-platform (Mobile, TV, Internet) to be successful.

    FOR ALL YOU HOCKEY PUCKS OUT THERE.  A surprise factoid.  The Super Bowl is NOT the top sporting event, according to Nielsen's State of the Media: Sports Year in Review.  At least it's not in the $100K and over crowd.  That honor goes to The Stanley Cup, which over-indexed other sporting events by nearly double (a score of 190) in that income bracket.  In simplistic terms, over-indexing translates to out-performing the average.  The Super Bowl didn't even come in second.  That honor went to the NCAA Basketball Championship (168).  The Super Bowl came in seventh (128), behind The Masters (163), The BCS National Championship (153), The World Cup Final (146), and The World Series (136); But ahead of the NBA Finals (126), The Kentucky Derby (124) and the U.S. Open Men's Final (113).

Okay, that's interesting enough, but the sales pitch behind the Nielsen report is that it can tell you who are the 'best' celebrity endorsers, using what it calls its patented 'N-Score" system which evaluates awareness, appeal and "46 specific personal attributes" to find out who is the best fit for your product.  In women, it's Venus Williams with an N-Score of 169; In men, it's Shaun White with a rating of 536; And in commentators, Terry Bradshaw with a score of 378.  Now, at this point, some of you avid Message readers are saying, "Hey, Michael, what about the study cited in a previous Message that you headlined celebrity-schlebrity article which pooh-poohed celebrity endorsements."  Oh, right you are.  Point noted.  On the flip side, a factoid that may validate, to a limited extent, the N-Score concept is that the study says Tiger Woods' N-Score went from a whopping 815 in 2009 to a measly 93 in 2010 after the scandal about his personal life.

But back to the more interesting factoids:  For example, four out of five users have downloaded an  iPhone Sports App.  Or, how about this.  There were 40,500 hours of live sporting events aired on either broadcast or cable operations in 2010.  The report examines the various sports and finds little gems in each one of them.  For example, viewer engagement levels are 76% higher for MLB sports programming than the average levels during all other sports programming.  The 2010 NBA Finals Game 7 broadcast drew 28.2 Million viewers – the highest rated game since 1998 when Michael Jordan played his final game.  Most of the fast facts about the NFL you already know from previous Messages – the Super Bowl beating out MASH as the most watched telecast of all time, in large part because of a jump in ethnic viewing.  And here's one you'll love --  NASCAR fans spent an average of 30% more for beer than fans of any other sport, but before you go into stereotypes, they also spent 25% more on non-alcoholic beverages as well.

    GENTLEMEN, START YOUR VIDEOS.  Because the race is on – between newspapers, broadcasters, and online media as to who will win the NASCAR of online video victory.  Depending on which metric you use, either Broadcasters or Newspapers hold the pole position, according to a study released by partners TubeMogul and BrightCove.   Broadcast can claim the top spot, based on total minutes streamed in 2010 (1.7 Billion) and in terms of average minutes spent viewing videos (3:20).  That's a minute and a half more than newspapers.  Newspaper can make a similar claim, based on total titles uploaded in 2010 (1.4 Million) and on what is called player loads (8 Billion).  Newspaper title uploads is nearly three times its nearest competitors, online media and broadcast; and newspaper player loads is nearly four times the rate for broadcasters.  A player load, by the way, represents the graphics, data and other components rendered on a web page including in-page and in-player ads.  And online media usually represents pure-play Web only properties. It should also be noted here that the report is on global online media use, not just the U.S.

A review of the differences between broadcast and online media online strategies, and the strategy employed by newspapers and magazines, along with the resultant data differences, only further emphasizes the differences in which metric is the best metric.  As a general rule though, "engagement" will be defined by time spent with particular media content.   But regardless, two things stand out.  Each month last year saw an increase in the amount of time spent viewing videos online.  Secondly, for the first time, the Nielsen authors say, more than half the videos in two categories (Online Media and Broadcast) were watched from start to finish.  It is what Nielsen calls Completion Rates.

A sub-theme that one could tease out of the report is the relationship between engagement and content.  For example, the report notes that "brands" saw a "massive" jump in engagement with the time spent viewing online nearly doubling year to year, from just over a minute in 2009 to over two minutes in 2010.  The authors say this may indicate brands are improving the quality of their content.  In a similar vein, the report notes that referrals by Yahoo appear to be more effective in terms of 'video engagement' because, the authors speculate, of its syndicated content efforts. As readers will recall, Yahoo owns the Associated Content.  No doubt, the smart ones among you see where I am headed with this.   It is the question, yet again, of the role that so-called "content farms" are playing and will play in the future of online information.  As a footnote, it should be noted that although the report makes a big issue of the increasing power of Yahoo, Facebook and Twitter as referral sources impacting engagement, Google remains far and away the major referral source, with more than 80% of all search referrals.  

    SUBSCRIPTIONS:  We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word "subscribe-MM" in the subject line.  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word "unsubscribe-MM" in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

Message from Michael -- Internet Future - February 16, 2011

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        February 17, 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

      RETURN TO SENDER.  ADDRESS UNKNOWN.

      JENNY, I GOT YOUR NUMBER

      DIGITAL FOLLOW UP

      SUPER BOWL FOLLOW UP

      A MOBILE VIEW OF THINGS PAST AND FUTURE

      COCKTAIL CHATTER

 

 

      RETURN TO SENDER.  ADDRESS UNKNOWN.  Who knew that Elvis Presley would be predicting the digital future from way back in 1962?  Okay, so he wasn’t talking about the Internet, but his lyrics are spot on.  There is no such number, no such zone in the present system of assigning IP addresses called Internet Protocol Version 4 (IPv4).  On February 3rd, ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers) handed out the last of the 4.3 Billion IP addresses available using IPv4.  Let me repeat that number – 4.3 Billion.  That’s the number of IP addresses in the world.  Keep in mind that, according to the World Population Clock, there are 6.9 Billion people in the world.  Also, keep in mind that IP addresses are not just used for that computer you’re using to read the fantastic, informative and insightful Message on, but also, possibly, that cable or satellite box you use and the DVR you record on, and dozens of other devices you don’t normally associate with Internet Protocol.  Actually, the better headline for this section might have been The Marvelettes’s Beechwood 4-5-7-8-9, because IPv4 is like the old phone number system in which a name preceded the number.  Do any of my Message readers remember those days?  There weren’t so many phones; so you didn’t need so many numbers.  Now, of course, we have to enter the area code and the number, even to make local calls, to accommodate the proliferation of phones.  In a similar vein, the next generation of Internet addresses, known as IPv6, will multiply the pool of IP addresses a Trillion times over.  And that transition is already underway.  Okay, I’ve probably geek’d some readers out with this technical mumbo-jump.  After all, theoretically, according to various tech experts, you won’t have to worry about the change.  Theoretically.

Website TechNewsWorld.com quotes researchers with ICANN as well as the American Registry for Internet Numbers as saying that most users who only use web browsers and email will not even notice anything.  But – there’s always a But – people using VPN (Virtual Private Network) software or point-to-point software such as Skype “may experience some glitches.”  Oh, yeah, and people who do a lot of video streaming, voice streaming, or online gaming “may run into trouble.”  But there is a bright side to the potential problems, according to the article by Erika Murphy.  Those advertisers who target you through your IP address will have a hard time tracking individual computers because IP addresses will represent whole neighborhoods instead of individual homes.  The whole process of transitioning to the new IP address system could take as long as ten years.  And because of that and because of the potential problems, a whole variety of groups you’ve never heard of -- ICANN, ARIN, along with The Number Resource Organization, the Internet Architecture Board, and the Internet Society – are urging device makers, content providers and ISP’s to hurry up and adopt the new system.

      JENNY, I GOT YOUR NUMBER.  And it’s not just 8-6-7-5-3-0-9 either.  It’s a whole mess of numbers, all deciphered by algorithms.  The three major Internet browsers are installing variations of an “opt out” feature into their systems.  The latest version of Mozilla’s Firefox contains an add-on that allows you to tell websites that you do not want to be tracked.  The boss of browsers, Microsoft’s Internet Explorer has added a feature in its IE9 version which allows users to block ads from behavioral targeting companies.  And giant Google has added an extension to its upstart browser, Chrome, allowing users to block sites.  The Google Chrome version is primarily aimed at culling out the questionable material from so-called “content farms,” but the company is expected to create an opt-out feature for ads and tracking cookies as well.  The moves are a pre-emptive strike by the companies which are facing regulatory action by the Federal Trade Commission as well as Congressional legislators who are pushing for an opt out feature on-line similar to the opt-out program aimed at telemarketers, allowing you to have your phone put on a “do not call.”  It should be noted that all three have blocking mechanisms already available as an option under the tool or settings tab.  Internet Explorer and Firefox call it “private browsing” allowing you to visit websites without being tracked or having the site made part of your browsing history.  Chrome has the same feature, but they gave it a cooler name – Incognito Browsing.   (For those who don’t get the headline.  It is an ancient Rock and Roll song by Tommy Tutones.

While all that may seem a blow in defense of privacy, a little reality dose.  Two new Apps have come on the market.  One is Sneakyshot.com which allows you to take “secret pictures of all the interesting people around you” on your iPhone.  The other App can capture the sound from your television, analyze it, and automatically share what you’re watching with your friends on Facebook and Twitter.  Supposedly this will make television “a more social experience.”              

      WORTH NOTING:  Regardless of your feelings about the often-times controversial Al Jazeera news channel, its coverage of the Egyptian crisis was some of the best in the world and the most viewed in the world.  On Friday when Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned, its YouTube site had recorded more than 12 Million channel views and more than 218 Million upload views.  Of course, it only has 146, 000 subscribers.   

      DIGITAL FOLLOW UP:  According to a senior researcher at comScore, if you examine TV ads using the same metrics as are used with Online ads, there are eight to ten ads online for every one TV episode.  It may be a variation of the proverbial Apples and Oranges comparison, but according to Andrew Lipsman, who is Senior Director, Industry Analysis, for comScore, the difference lies in the use of the word “impressions.”  Just quickly, you may remember I did a summary of comScore’s Digital Year in Review in which I noted that advertising accounts for a quarter (25%) of all Television programming but ‘only’ a sixth (16.6%) of all Online  video ‘programming.’  In actual time spent, the number drops even further with video ads accounting for only 1.6% of the actual online video time.  Lipsman says the 1.6% figure is still the more accurate comparison with the 25% figure.  He says that’s because “it’s the percentage of time allocated to ads as a percentage of the total.  The 16% figure is the number of impressions, but TV isn’t really measured in impressions.  In fact you might even say there are 8 to 10 ads for every 1 TV episode, if you’re just looking at it on an impression basis.”  Got it?  I’m not sure I do either, but I’m getting there.  In any case, I have to say that I was impressed that Lipsman actually replied and in detail to the inquiry from a pipsqueak newsletter publisher – aka ME.

And, just for the record, also from the digital year in review study, the battle lines have been drawn between manufacturers and providers of SmartPhones.  Leader RIM continues to dominate the market with a third (31.6%) of all smart phones but that’s down ten percent. Google is close behind (28.7%) but more importantly, its numbers increased (23.5%) year to year.  Apple is flat at 25%.  On the provider side, Verizon continues to hold the lion’s share (31.6%, closely followed by AT&T (26.6%) and with the other two, T-Mobile (12.2%) and Sprint (11.9%) battling it out for third and fourth place.

      SUPER BOWL FOLLOW UP:   Not only did the overall viewing numbers for the game reach a record high, but the viewing numbers for different ethnic groups also spiked.  Figures supplied by Nielsen and reported by Cynopsis show that the number of Hispanic viewers jumped from 8.3 Million last year to 10 Million for this year’s game; from 11.2 Million African American viewers last year to 12.5 Million this year; and from 48.5 Million female viewers last year to 51.2 Million this year.  And while many analysts are still talking about the success of Dorito’s chip-chasing, user-generated spot, the real ‘winner’ was the spot for the Chevy Camaro in which two guys describe a woman driving the car.  Well, winner in the sense that an analysis of viewing patterns shows that it was the ‘most watched’ Ad in Super Bowl history, with 119.6 Million viewers.  That’s even though (candidly) the spot was not that hot.  But the spot was in the heavily watched and critical fourth quarter.  So, far, on YouTube, the spot has had 1.2 Million views.  But here’s the funny thing – to me, at least.  You’d think General Motors would be happy with that.  Noooooooo, they want more.  So what did they do?  They bought the search market terms “imported from Detroit” used in the much cooler Chrysler spot with Eminem, as well as “Darth Vader” from the way better and much more popular Volkswagen Ad.  Pretty smart, huh?   As a side note, the competing “bowl” – the Animal Planet’s Puppy Bowl also scored a win, with a 60% increase in viewers over last year – 1.7 Million during its premier time (3pm to 5pm) and 9.2 Million unique viewers over the entire marathon event. 

      A MOBILE VIEW OF THINGS PAST AND FUTURE:  Remember that figure above about the world population?  6.9 Billion.  Well, last year, there were 1.6 Billion mobile devices sold.  That’s up 31% from the year before.  So, think about it.  Nearly 3 Billion Mobile devices sold in the past two years.  A “mobile device” for nearly one out of every two people on planet Earth.  Marketing research firm eMarketer predicts that the percentage of SmartPhones will rise from about a third (31%) of the Mobile population to just under a half (43%) by 2015.  That translates into 110 Million Americans toting SmartPhones around.  My good friends at comScore just released a Mobile Year in Review which looks at Mobile Device use in the U.S., the five prime European countries and Japan.  More on that in the next issue of the Message. 

      COCKTAIL CHATTER:  Traditional bookstores, including the chains and independent stores, accounted for less than half of the book market last year, according to an article in USA Today, with retailers like Amazon, Price Clubs, supermarkets and convenience stores making up the majority of sales.  Fordham University marketing professor Albert Greco, told the newspaper that by his estimations Amazon accounted for nearly a quarter of all sales (22.6%), ahead of Barnes & Noble (17.3%), Borders (8.1%), Books-A-Million (3%), and finally Independents (6%).          

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

Message from Michael -- Digital Year in Review -- February 11-2011

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        February 11, 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

      THE DIGITAL YEAR IN YEAR – A SPECIAL REPORT

·         A MILLION HERE, A MILLION THERE

·         KNIT ONE, PEARL TWO

·         SEEK AND YE MAY FIND

·         I LIKE TO WATCH

·         THE PERFECT STORM

 

 

      A MILLION HERE, A MILLION THERE.  And pretty soon, to paraphrase the famous quote about the U.S. budget by Senator Everett Dirksen, you’re talking real money.  Specifically advertising dollars type money.  That’s one of the key take-aways from Internet measurement company comScore’s Digital Year in Review.  This may elicit a Homer Simpson “DOH” response from some Message readers, but I’m going to say it anyway.  The over-riding impression one gets from a read of the annual report is that the Internet has really and truly become an advertising medium.  For example, the so-called Cyber Monday online shopping day passed $1 Billion in online retail spending for the first time.  Eight of the holiday shopping days topped the $900 Million mark.  Total U.S. e-commerce spending reached $227.6 Billion last year – an increase of 9% over the previous year.  And there are more factoids to make the point: --

Last year, American Internet users “received” (the word the comScore analysts use) a total of 4.9 Trillion display Ads.  That’s up 23% year to year. And that’s just display ads.  Video Ad Networks “served” (again, the word the comScore analysts use) 5.9 Billion Ads a month.  Video ads, according to the analysts, now reach seven out of ten Americans online and one out of every two Americans nationwide.  The report says a clear indication of the brand advertisers shifting to digital is that 104 companies are serving up more than a Billion ads.  That’s a 30% increase over last year when 80 brand advertisers did that amount of advertising.  And that’s just for starters.  While advertising accounts for a quarter (25%) of all Television programming, advertising ‘only’ accounts for one of every six (16.4%) of all Online Video viewed, meaning there’s room for growth.  Online video ads apparently face similar challenges as TV faces with DVR’s because the report says online video ads account for only 1.6% of all time spent viewing video online.

SIDE NOTE:  Consider this in the Online Video advertising equation. Facebook alone delivered more than 1 Trillion display ads… the first company to pass that milestone.  Yahoo!, which was last year’s top display ad publisher, ranked second with half a Billion ads (529.4 Billion).  The use of standard GIF’s and JPEG’s in advertising actually grew (295 Billion a month compared to 236 a year ago).  Flash Ads meanwhile dropped from 162 Billion a month to 147 Billion.  As the report authors note, that seems counterintuitive.  The reason is that Facebook uses the static ad format and it is such a huge force that it impacts all advertising.

THE FUTURE:  The report not only looks backward but, briefly, looks forward.  For example, the authors say the key issue for advertisers will be the need for holistic, end-to-end measurement “across the digital advertising ecosystem.”   On the issue of e-Commerce, the authors say you can expect online to be a greater driver of off-line in the future.  They also say the fairly recent phenomenon of group buying and “flash sales” will become a more common, accepted phenomenon.

      KNIT ONE, PEARL TWO.  The report says social networking has become so woven into so many different online activities that it is now an “integral part of the fabric of the Internet.”  Which is something most of you readers of the Message already know or already suspect.  The comScore report says it has now reached the point that 9 out of every 10 Internet users in the U.S. visit a social networking site each month with the average user spending more than 4.5 hours on these sites each month.  In fact, social networking sites account for 12% of all time spent online in 2010.  Oddly, Americans spend slightly less time at social networking sites than people around the world.  Globally those aged 15 and up spent 15.6% of their online time on social networking sites while in the U.S. it was 14.4%.  Not so oddly, but interestingly, women spend more of their online time visiting social networking sites than men. One out of every six minutes (16.8%) compared to one out of every eight minutes (12%) for men.

Okay, let’s get the obvious out of the way – Facebook is the number one site, accounting for 10% of all U.S. page views in 2010 and three out of every ten Internet sessions.  Beleaguered MySpace is #2, but way back at 50 Million visitors a month, a decline of 27%, but still a respectable number and one that makes you wonder why it’s for sale.  Business networking site Linkedin takes the number three spot with 23.6 Million a month, an increase of 30% year to year, but still half of MySpace which raises the question why everybody is in love with Linkedin and so disaffected with MySpace.  Coincidentally, Twitter had the same number of visitors per month based on December numbers as Linkedin.  But here’s the surprise – Tumblr.com jumped 168% year to year to reach an average 6.7 monthly visitors.  Here’s the even bigger surprise – Formspring.me reached 5.3 Million visitors by December, a growth spurt of 1000%.  At this point, I hope there are at least some of you who are saying… What the heck is a formspring, because I sure didn’t about it.  It is a social networking site aimed at young people and which, in its own words, “helps people find out more about each other through sharing interesting and personal responses… in a simple and fun way.”  I’ll let you make your own judgment about what that means.      

SIDE NOTE: So-called “portals” still remain the primary online activity with a fifth (20.2%) of the time spent.  But that’s down (1.4%) while social networking is up (3.8%), and is now the second most engaging activity online (at 14.4%).  Entertainment is third (12.6%).  The report authors note that the increase in social networking and mobile usage has meant a decrease in the use of  web-based email.  It’s down 8% overall year to year, but down an astounding 59% amongst 12-17 year olds.  Interestingly the decline wasn’t as significant in the 18-24 year olds, but definitely in the 25-34 year old demographic (18%), only somewhat in the 35-44 year olds (8%), and somewhat more in the 45-54 (12%).  But as more older people go online, email usage has increased with both 55-64 year olds (22%) and 65-plus group (28%) using it more. 

THE FUTURE:  The report is, to put it mildly, ambiguous about the future of social networking for businesses, advertisers and marketers.  On one hand, they say without a social media presence, you will be left behind.  On the other hand, they say, it may not be worth “significant investment for every company or brand.”  Then again, it is important to “understand how consumers may (or may not) use the medium.”  And that, at the very least you should be listening to them and “most should probably engage directly with them.”  So, you figure it out.  Actually, as a side note to the side note, the Council for Research Excellence which represents media and advertising researches has just issued an RFP for digital measurement.      

      SEEK AND YE MAY FIND.  It all depends on what kind of search you end up using.  This is way too arcane to get into, but I will anyway… briefly.  Before I do, let’s get another obvious one out of the way.  Google continues to dominate search, accounting for more than 3 out of every 5 U.S. searches (66.6%).  Yahoo is a far distant second with one out of six searches (16%).  Second point, search continues to be a critical element for all Internet users, businesses and advertisers.  But back to the arcane.  Some marketers have figured out a way to “game” the system with searches that are unintentional searches.  It’s called “contextually driven search” in which you, the consumer, click on a slide show, or picture or an un-related link on a web page and it generates a ‘search’ for that item.  That’s why comScore has initiated what it calls “explicit core search” which is ‘intentional’ searching.  You are actually using the search engine to get a specific result. Okay, now you know.   

SIDE NOTE:  Take a guess what the most searched for phrase is.  Put down the message and think about it….tick, tick, tick. Okay, what’s your guess.  Well, the answer is… Facebook, with 1.9 Billion searches over the last year.  No I didn’t get it either.  But apparently lots of people use search engines for navigation on the Web instead of simply typing in the service.  So, instead of typing in the YouTube URL, they’ll search for it (791 Million times last year).  Same for Google itself, which is even stranger (616 Million searches), Yahoo (562 Million), Craigslist (547 M), MySpace (360 M), and Craigslist (311 M).  Weird, huh?  Then again, maybe some of you do that.  Anyway, moving on… the top user of paid searches is eBay which got 99.2 Million clicks for its effort while Netflix was second with 43.1 Million clicks.

      I LIKE TO WATCH.  It’s a line from the movie Being There, the last film by Peter Sellers in which he played a simple gardener who becomes a national celebrity even though his only knowledge of the world comes from his garden and watching television.  For whatever reason, it came to mind after reading the figures from the report on Online Video viewing.  An estimated 179 Million Americans watch video online each month.  By the end of the year last year, 88.6 Million Americans were watching on an average day, an increase of 32% from the year before.  The average American spent 14 hours watching online in December, up 12% from the year before.  Hulu continued to dominate the online video market, racking up 323 Million hours last year.  The five networks did about half that number – 162 Million hours.  But while Hulu’s usage increased 17% year to year, the five networks increased their online viewing by five times that (82%).  Again, indicative of the advertising theme of the report, the authors say online video continues to be an opportunity for advertisers. I should also note here other reports that the various networks are looking at re-examining the Hulu model because it is cannibalizing their own sites.

THE FUTURE:  Rather than paraphrase the author’s comments, here’s the direct quote from the report:  “In 2011, look for cross media relationships to take center stage as the convergence of traditional TV and online video viewing continues to blur the lines between media channels.”      

      THE PERFECT STORM.  Admittedly that phrase has become an over-used cliché lately, but that’s the description used by the report authors in talking about Mobile usage in 2010.  They also call it a “game changing year.”  The reason -- a combination of Smartphone adoption, device innovations such as tablets and increased network speeds all aligned.  Major milestones during the year included the fact that Smartphones now reach one in four Americans and that 3G penetration crossed the 50% threshold.  More than two thirds (68%) use their phones to text, while half (52.4%) use them to take and send photos.  To give my news brethren heart, the next big Mobile activity is accessing news and information (39.5%).  About a third (36.4%) used the phone’s browser while another third (34.4%) used it to access Apps.  Email has dropped to less than a third (30.5%).  A fourth used their phones to either get weather reports (25.2%) or to access social networking and/ or blog sites (24.7%).  Slightly less than that (23.2%) use them to play games.  After that, it’s search (21.4%), video capture (20.2%), maps (17.8% ), IM (17.2%), Sports (15.8%) and Music (15.7%).       

THE FUTURE:  The authors say you can expect more real time price and product information searches on mobile devices for consumers looking to make an in-store buy, but they also expect an increase in on-line buying as a result.  Also as a result, the authors say the “nearly ubiquitous nature” of Mobile along with its convenience will make it “potentially extremely valuable for advertisers.”  (See what I mean about this report being all about advertising?)  Then they make an important point.  Mobile Internet use is not just an extension of PC-based Internet use, but “is itself a unique platform that by its nature will influence the how, what, where, why and when of consumers’ media consumption.”    

      FOOTNOTE:  I apologize for the length of this Message, but the report had a lot in it.  Even then there’s no doubt I left something out.  If so, we’ll make up for it in the next report.  And, yes, you’re not mistaken.  There were two Messages this week -- The Super Bowl and the comScore report.  Both were timely and both required their own message.          

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.

 

Message from Michael -- Super Bowl Special -- February 7, 2011

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        February 7, 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

      A SPECIAL REPORT – THE SUPER BOWL – RATINGS MADNESS

 

 

      MOST VIEWED VERSUS HIGHEST RATED:  First, as you’ve no doubt heard, and as many predicted, this Super Bowl is officially the most watched television program of all time with an average of 111 Million viewers… five Million more than last year’s game, which took over the top viewing spot from the previous viewing champion – the final episode of M-A-S-H.  Nielsen officials say each of the last six Super Bowl games have increased the numbers over the previous year’s game.  The numbers also translated into several other records.  A record 163 Million viewers watched at least part of the game – up 9 Million from last year.  And, with an average of just under 101 Million viewers during the night, Fox became the first network to top the 100 Million mark during a prime time telecast.  Okay, now, for a little perspective.  This year’s game had an average 46 Rating and 69 Share, which is not the highest rating.  It ‘only’ tied the 1996 game in terms of Ratings.  That game, Super Bowl XXX  is ‘only’ ranked number six in total viewers with an average of 94 Million.  BTW, the teams in that game?  The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys. 

      FOOTBALL ANALOGIES FOR ADVERTISERS:  The people behind the Bud Light spot about the dog sitter party scored a touchdown on a punt return, while the people behind the Stella Artois spot were intercepted on the first down.  The people behind the VW Passat spot about the young Darth Vader not only scored a touchdown, but they made a two-point conversion as well, while the people behind the Mini Cooper spot fumbled the ball on the 20-yard line.  And the people behind the Chrysler spot about Detroit with Eminem may have been playing some Zen-level of football while the people behind the Hyundai Elantra spot were playing touch football in comparison.  Some of the Super Bowl advertisers could take a lesson from Vince Lombardi who did not say “winning is the only thing” but who did say, “perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.” In the $3 Million-a-Spot race to achieve excellence in advertising in Sunday night’s Super Bowl, there were 91 contestants, according to Fox Sports, 52 according to USA Today.

      J.R. Burningham’s Excellent Adventure.  The 31-year-old part-time website designer from Salt Lake City caught excellence with his home-made $500 spot for Doritos featuring a chip-chasing Pug.  His spot tied for first place in the USA Today Ad Meter survey of Super Bowl spots, with perennial winner and major spender Budweiser’s Bud Light Dog Sitter Party ad.  And setting another record, this is the first time there were co-winners in the USA Today survey.  Both spots were also the top vote getters in the FoxSports online survey.  And because he scored number one on the USA Today Ad Meter, Burningham also got a Million dollars for his trouble.  The second of the Dorito’s consumer-created ads, the Healing Chip, also scored well, with a number four spot in the USA Today survey and number six in the FoxSports survey.  Dorito’s third ad, the finger licking, was nowhere to be found in any of the surveys.  It only showed up in critics’ reviews, with such comments as those of the New York Daily News’s David Hinckley who said it may be the “creepiest spot in Super Bowl history.”  That’s doubly interesting when you consider that it was picked from thousands of ads submitted by, and voted on, by consumers.  Burningham’s mother, by the way, is quoted by KSL.com as saying she was elated because her son had mortgaged himself “to the hilt with student loans” pursuing the dream of producing movies.

As a point of clarification, the FoxSports survey had several categories – Most Viewed, Best, Worst, Most Good Votes, Most Bad Votes.  So, although the Pug and Dog Sitter ads had the most good votes, the ad that actually won the title of Best was the Bridgestone Beaver Karma ad with a score of 97, followed by VW’s Darth Vader ad, one point behind at 96.  The ad came in 9^th on the USA Today survey, but has been generating a lot of, lot of, lot of good reviews from critics and bloggers around the country.  It apparently touched a well spring of feeling.      

The Mini Cooper ad was USA Today’s lowest scoring ad, along with Stella Artois, GoDaddy’s Danic Patrick, and Hyundai’s Elantra advertisements.  The Mini and Hyundai ads also scored as the “worst” in the FoxSports survey.  Other low scorers in the FoxSports survey were the Ford Focus, Castrol, Lowes and Subway along with Chatter.com with Will.I.Am, which had two versions – a 15-second and 30-second spot… both of which stunk, according to the survey.  

      ANOTHER LOMBARDI QUOTE:  He also said, “winning is not a sometime thing… it’s an all time thing.”  A quote that could be applied to the advertising world’s semi-recent discovery of social media and its ability to make a small, but expensive, win on air, into a big, and less expensive, win on line.  VW’s young Darth Vader ad is the highest rate ad for a car since..the Nissan ad in the 1996 game.  More importantly, maybe, the ad has scored an incredible 13 Million views online.  As the head of the Advertising and Public Relations department here at the Grady College of Journalism noted in an email exchange, people are passing the ad around to friends and family, giving it multiple exposures… all for free.  Department head Tom Reichert picked it as his favorite, although he admits there may be a personal bias since “I have two little ones just like him running around the house.”

The numbers support his choice.  The closest thing to the VW ad, in terms of views, was last year’s winning Dorito’s ad which has had more than 7 Million views.  Apple’s “1984” spot has had half that number (6.5 Million views) and it has been around for more than 20 years, although, yes, YouTube has only been around for six of those years.  Last year’s walk-away hit, the Betty White Snickers advertisement, ‘only’ scored 3 Million views, even though it has been on YouTube for a solid year.  VW’s other Super Bowl ad, Black Beetle, had half a Million views on YouTube.  The Dorito’s Pug Attack ad has had only 1.2 Million YouTube views.  YouTube, by the way, is running a contest for best Super Bowl ad.  It ends February 14^th… about the time nobody is any longer interested in the ads. 

Also, on the on-line front, Vanessa Fox, writing on the SearchEngineLand.com website, said that for the first time, most of the advertisers used Facebook URL’s instead of their own domain names.  That’s both good and bad.  Good because it provides an easy and familiar platform; Bad because it gives away their Super Bowl traffic to Facebook and excluded some of their audience since fewer than half of Americans are on Facebook.  She noted that she did not see any Twitter accounts listed in the commercials, although some of the spots for the movies had Twitter hashtags.  As a side note, the Los Angeles Times critic said the various movie advertisements “landed with a thud.”  On the ‘positive’ side, Fox says all (100%) of the brands had some search visibility this year – a major improvement over previous years.  On the ‘dumb’ side of the equation though, and somewhat unbelievably, Fox notes that many brands didn’t include the Super Bowl ads on their home pages. 

      IMPORTED FROM DETROIT:  A prediction here.  That is going to be the run-away slogan in the upcoming year, and not just for Chrysler which coined it in its Super Bowl ad featuring Eminem.  Search Engine’s Fox called the search engine response when the ad appeared – Volcanic.  Her assessment is also mirrored in a study by a marketing professor at the University of Georgia’s Terry College of Business.  His analysis of Tweets generated by ads ranked the Chrysler/ Eminem spot as the hot spot.  Indicative of the different interpretations one can get from surveys and social media responses, the Chrysler ad came in the middle to lower end of the consumer surveys by both USA Today and Fox Sports.  But several media websites, including ArtisanNews.com, are saying it is the best of the Super Bowl spots.  For what little it’s worth, I agree.  A caveat – not my favorite.  But the best.   

      FOLLOWING THE LEADER:  The hit Fox television show, Glee, followed the Super Bowl game and scored some records of its own with an 11.1 Rating in Adults 18-49.  A drop of 35 points, but still a record.  The networks will often place shows behind the Super Bowl to give them a boost.  According to Entertainment Weekly’s website, EW.com, of the 20 highest rated shows following the Super Bowl that it followed, the top scorer was an episode of Friends which followed… interestingly… the ratings-record-breaking 1996 Super Bowl.  Of course, Friends already had some heavy duty power.  Other hits that followed the Super Bowl include Grey’s Anatomy, 3^rd Rock, The Wonder Years and House.  But there were also some dogs.  Remember Davis Rules?  A sitcom starring Randy Quaid.  How about Grand Slam?  About two bail bondsmen played by John Schneider and Paul Rodriguez.  Or how about Brothers and Sisters?  Or The Last Precinct, a camp cop show starring Adam West.   What?  You don’t remember them?  Well, neither do I or most viewers.  Despite getting a Super Bowl injected ratings boost, they all lasted only one season, or even less.  Proof, hopefully, that good content still counts for something with viewers.

The Top Ten Half-Time shows, according to Entertainment Weekly, were Michael Jackson, Prince, Bruce Springsteen, U2, The Rolling Stones, New Kids on the Block, Britany Spears with Aerosmith, Patti Labelle, Up With People, and yes, wait for it… Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake.

      FOOTNOTE:  As noted in the headline, this is a special report message.  We’ll have more on the Super Bowl ads, and their implications, including a full analysis of the Twitter statistics from the marketing professor, in our next edition.  Also, as a foot note, I have tried to clean up some of the email addresses on my Message listserv.  So, those of you getting two messages will only get one.  But foot noting some more, a couple of people have dropped off the list over the last year.  So, again, I would encourage you to pass on the message to friends and encourage them to subscribe.  Okay, one last foot note -- the message is also carried on 602 Communications IdeaNet newsletter.   

      SUBSCRIPTIONS:  We encourage people to pass on copies of Message from Michael.  But if you would like to get your own copy, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, e-mail Michael@MediaConsultant.tv with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line. Also, back issues of MfM are available at the website, media-consultant.blogspot.com.  You can reach me directly at Michael@MediaConsultant.tv.