Message from Michael -- Internet Future - February 16, 2011

Message From Michael                                 

                                                                                                                        February 17, 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

      RETURN TO SENDER.  ADDRESS UNKNOWN.

      JENNY, I GOT YOUR NUMBER

      DIGITAL FOLLOW UP

      SUPER BOWL FOLLOW UP

      A MOBILE VIEW OF THINGS PAST AND FUTURE

      COCKTAIL CHATTER

 

 

      RETURN TO SENDER.  ADDRESS UNKNOWN.  Who knew that Elvis Presley would be predicting the digital future from way back in 1962?  Okay, so he wasn’t talking about the Internet, but his lyrics are spot on.  There is no such number, no such zone in the present system of assigning IP addresses called Internet Protocol Version 4 (IPv4).  On February 3rd, ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers) handed out the last of the 4.3 Billion IP addresses available using IPv4.  Let me repeat that number – 4.3 Billion.  That’s the number of IP addresses in the world.  Keep in mind that, according to the World Population Clock, there are 6.9 Billion people in the world.  Also, keep in mind that IP addresses are not just used for that computer you’re using to read the fantastic, informative and insightful Message on, but also, possibly, that cable or satellite box you use and the DVR you record on, and dozens of other devices you don’t normally associate with Internet Protocol.  Actually, the better headline for this section might have been The Marvelettes’s Beechwood 4-5-7-8-9, because IPv4 is like the old phone number system in which a name preceded the number.  Do any of my Message readers remember those days?  There weren’t so many phones; so you didn’t need so many numbers.  Now, of course, we have to enter the area code and the number, even to make local calls, to accommodate the proliferation of phones.  In a similar vein, the next generation of Internet addresses, known as IPv6, will multiply the pool of IP addresses a Trillion times over.  And that transition is already underway.  Okay, I’ve probably geek’d some readers out with this technical mumbo-jump.  After all, theoretically, according to various tech experts, you won’t have to worry about the change.  Theoretically.

Website TechNewsWorld.com quotes researchers with ICANN as well as the American Registry for Internet Numbers as saying that most users who only use web browsers and email will not even notice anything.  But – there’s always a But – people using VPN (Virtual Private Network) software or point-to-point software such as Skype “may experience some glitches.”  Oh, yeah, and people who do a lot of video streaming, voice streaming, or online gaming “may run into trouble.”  But there is a bright side to the potential problems, according to the article by Erika Murphy.  Those advertisers who target you through your IP address will have a hard time tracking individual computers because IP addresses will represent whole neighborhoods instead of individual homes.  The whole process of transitioning to the new IP address system could take as long as ten years.  And because of that and because of the potential problems, a whole variety of groups you’ve never heard of -- ICANN, ARIN, along with The Number Resource Organization, the Internet Architecture Board, and the Internet Society – are urging device makers, content providers and ISP’s to hurry up and adopt the new system.

      JENNY, I GOT YOUR NUMBER.  And it’s not just 8-6-7-5-3-0-9 either.  It’s a whole mess of numbers, all deciphered by algorithms.  The three major Internet browsers are installing variations of an “opt out” feature into their systems.  The latest version of Mozilla’s Firefox contains an add-on that allows you to tell websites that you do not want to be tracked.  The boss of browsers, Microsoft’s Internet Explorer has added a feature in its IE9 version which allows users to block ads from behavioral targeting companies.  And giant Google has added an extension to its upstart browser, Chrome, allowing users to block sites.  The Google Chrome version is primarily aimed at culling out the questionable material from so-called “content farms,” but the company is expected to create an opt-out feature for ads and tracking cookies as well.  The moves are a pre-emptive strike by the companies which are facing regulatory action by the Federal Trade Commission as well as Congressional legislators who are pushing for an opt out feature on-line similar to the opt-out program aimed at telemarketers, allowing you to have your phone put on a “do not call.”  It should be noted that all three have blocking mechanisms already available as an option under the tool or settings tab.  Internet Explorer and Firefox call it “private browsing” allowing you to visit websites without being tracked or having the site made part of your browsing history.  Chrome has the same feature, but they gave it a cooler name – Incognito Browsing.   (For those who don’t get the headline.  It is an ancient Rock and Roll song by Tommy Tutones.

While all that may seem a blow in defense of privacy, a little reality dose.  Two new Apps have come on the market.  One is Sneakyshot.com which allows you to take “secret pictures of all the interesting people around you” on your iPhone.  The other App can capture the sound from your television, analyze it, and automatically share what you’re watching with your friends on Facebook and Twitter.  Supposedly this will make television “a more social experience.”              

      WORTH NOTING:  Regardless of your feelings about the often-times controversial Al Jazeera news channel, its coverage of the Egyptian crisis was some of the best in the world and the most viewed in the world.  On Friday when Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned, its YouTube site had recorded more than 12 Million channel views and more than 218 Million upload views.  Of course, it only has 146, 000 subscribers.   

      DIGITAL FOLLOW UP:  According to a senior researcher at comScore, if you examine TV ads using the same metrics as are used with Online ads, there are eight to ten ads online for every one TV episode.  It may be a variation of the proverbial Apples and Oranges comparison, but according to Andrew Lipsman, who is Senior Director, Industry Analysis, for comScore, the difference lies in the use of the word “impressions.”  Just quickly, you may remember I did a summary of comScore’s Digital Year in Review in which I noted that advertising accounts for a quarter (25%) of all Television programming but ‘only’ a sixth (16.6%) of all Online  video ‘programming.’  In actual time spent, the number drops even further with video ads accounting for only 1.6% of the actual online video time.  Lipsman says the 1.6% figure is still the more accurate comparison with the 25% figure.  He says that’s because “it’s the percentage of time allocated to ads as a percentage of the total.  The 16% figure is the number of impressions, but TV isn’t really measured in impressions.  In fact you might even say there are 8 to 10 ads for every 1 TV episode, if you’re just looking at it on an impression basis.”  Got it?  I’m not sure I do either, but I’m getting there.  In any case, I have to say that I was impressed that Lipsman actually replied and in detail to the inquiry from a pipsqueak newsletter publisher – aka ME.

And, just for the record, also from the digital year in review study, the battle lines have been drawn between manufacturers and providers of SmartPhones.  Leader RIM continues to dominate the market with a third (31.6%) of all smart phones but that’s down ten percent. Google is close behind (28.7%) but more importantly, its numbers increased (23.5%) year to year.  Apple is flat at 25%.  On the provider side, Verizon continues to hold the lion’s share (31.6%, closely followed by AT&T (26.6%) and with the other two, T-Mobile (12.2%) and Sprint (11.9%) battling it out for third and fourth place.

      SUPER BOWL FOLLOW UP:   Not only did the overall viewing numbers for the game reach a record high, but the viewing numbers for different ethnic groups also spiked.  Figures supplied by Nielsen and reported by Cynopsis show that the number of Hispanic viewers jumped from 8.3 Million last year to 10 Million for this year’s game; from 11.2 Million African American viewers last year to 12.5 Million this year; and from 48.5 Million female viewers last year to 51.2 Million this year.  And while many analysts are still talking about the success of Dorito’s chip-chasing, user-generated spot, the real ‘winner’ was the spot for the Chevy Camaro in which two guys describe a woman driving the car.  Well, winner in the sense that an analysis of viewing patterns shows that it was the ‘most watched’ Ad in Super Bowl history, with 119.6 Million viewers.  That’s even though (candidly) the spot was not that hot.  But the spot was in the heavily watched and critical fourth quarter.  So, far, on YouTube, the spot has had 1.2 Million views.  But here’s the funny thing – to me, at least.  You’d think General Motors would be happy with that.  Noooooooo, they want more.  So what did they do?  They bought the search market terms “imported from Detroit” used in the much cooler Chrysler spot with Eminem, as well as “Darth Vader” from the way better and much more popular Volkswagen Ad.  Pretty smart, huh?   As a side note, the competing “bowl” – the Animal Planet’s Puppy Bowl also scored a win, with a 60% increase in viewers over last year – 1.7 Million during its premier time (3pm to 5pm) and 9.2 Million unique viewers over the entire marathon event. 

      A MOBILE VIEW OF THINGS PAST AND FUTURE:  Remember that figure above about the world population?  6.9 Billion.  Well, last year, there were 1.6 Billion mobile devices sold.  That’s up 31% from the year before.  So, think about it.  Nearly 3 Billion Mobile devices sold in the past two years.  A “mobile device” for nearly one out of every two people on planet Earth.  Marketing research firm eMarketer predicts that the percentage of SmartPhones will rise from about a third (31%) of the Mobile population to just under a half (43%) by 2015.  That translates into 110 Million Americans toting SmartPhones around.  My good friends at comScore just released a Mobile Year in Review which looks at Mobile Device use in the U.S., the five prime European countries and Japan.  More on that in the next issue of the Message. 

      COCKTAIL CHATTER:  Traditional bookstores, including the chains and independent stores, accounted for less than half of the book market last year, according to an article in USA Today, with retailers like Amazon, Price Clubs, supermarkets and convenience stores making up the majority of sales.  Fordham University marketing professor Albert Greco, told the newspaper that by his estimations Amazon accounted for nearly a quarter of all sales (22.6%), ahead of Barnes & Noble (17.3%), Borders (8.1%), Books-A-Million (3%), and finally Independents (6%).          

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