January 16, 2006
- Special Edition – Predictions -- #1
- SPECIAL EDITION NOTE -- PREDICTIONS: When I first thought of the idea of a special edition of MfM focusing on predictions and resolutions, I thought of it as just an interesting experiment. A game almost. After reading all the thoughtful replies, I realized I hadn’t given it enough thought myself. I had under-estimated the importance of thinking about the future. The people who responded are the smart people who make resolutions and have predictions; who think and who control their destiny. Management guru Peter Drucker is credited with saying, “the best way to predict the future is to create it.” The people here are doing just that.
- PREDICTIONS: Not surprisingly, the dominant theme was the media and most specifically ‘new media.’ Even those who didn’t specifically talk about ‘new media,’ talked about the ramifications and impact of new media. More than that there was an underlying theme that you have to come to the table with a different mindset. For example, Peter Maroney (GM/WTVR/Richmond), while talking about resolutions, says he no longer uses the term “television station” but instead talks about his station being “a multimedia platform broadcasting or narrowcasting six channels over the air and at least six ‘subscription TV’ carriers.” As a side note, Maroney says he has adopted the TVB suggestion that broadcasters drop references such as cable and satellite and instead refer to all sources other than ‘free over-the-air broadcasting’ as “subscription TV.”Barry Barth (GM/ WFXG/ Augusta) cites a simple fact as evidence of the changing landscape – the announcement by ABC at the start of the Rose Bowl game that an edited 15-minute version of the game will be available for downloading on your IPod or MP3 player next morning. Charles Munro (former Magid consultant and teacher) says this may be the year local television stations discover the importance of such devices to reach viewers while Mark Rosen (ND/ WJBF/ Augusta) says they have little choice since viewers will use such devices to “build their own newscasts and determine the delivery system and time”… a similar view to that held by Richard Riley (University of Georgia) who sees it as “media conversion” with the audience getting the content ‘customized’ and delivered to the device of their choice. Paul Keener (Marketing Manager/ KFVS/ Cape Girardeau) wonders whether the result will be a sense of ‘entitlement’ so that people will feel like “victims if we can’t get what we want at the exact time we want it.” Bert Rudman (Producer/ ABC) warns though that the emergence of network news on such devices will become “the issue of the year for local affiliates concerned about being left out.”Frank Volpicella (ND/ KVUE/ Austin) believes the best counter to the small screen is the big screen with HDTV which he believes with its “beautifully defined picture on a big screen TV will ignite a new passion for TV watching.” Regardless, Gail Hayden (Makeup Artist/ Maquillage-Makeupartist.com) says one thing she is sure of is that HDTV will mean more work for people like her “pounding plaster into the follicles of high resolution.”
- DAYGLOW COLORS: “Media corporations will finally see the handwriting that's so old it's now imbedded into the wall and devote some resources to experimenting with and developing alternate models to traditional newspaper and TV station approaches to news. They won't, however, spend enough or go far enough out of the box to build a model that can be successful. A web based company will. This time next year the handwriting written by that company will be in dayglow colors and there will be a huge rush beginning to jump on board.” -- David Hazinski (University of Georgia/ International Consultant)There is a “graying of the lines” as Matt Smith (Manager/ Video on Demand/ Yahoo) sees it between the PC and the TV, predicting that the computer will “make its home in the living room just as fast” as the television set did originally. He says with Yahoo adding more entertainment and content to its mix, the company’s core business of search is more of a channel guide to everything you get, whether from cable or a DBS receiver. Meanwhile Todd Fantz (Consultant/Intelligent Media Consultants) predicts rival Microsoft will not make its 2006 deadline for introducing a new operating system.
- PAST AND FUTURE: “TV newsrooms will finally get that the past doesn’t equal the future and TV journalists will either find new careers or begin to make the transition from old media to new media.” Jerry Gumbert (Managing Partner/ Audience Research and Development)One thing they do get is the Web or the Internet. Whichever term you use, the understanding that it is integral to your operation has become more accepted than a year ago, it seems to me from the predictions I read. Paul Greeley (VP/ Marketing/ Nexstar) predicts station web sites will become a “huge asset in the future.” Mike Smith (VP-News/ WCTV/ Tallahassee) predicts stations will use the Internet “more and more for breaking news and news tidbits” until eventually the Internet will become the ‘crawl’ system for broadcasters. Volpicella says yes, but as stations drive people to the web “at the expense of broadcast news programs,” he questions whether corporations will accept that such growth is compensation for the drop in rating and share of the local news.
- DECLINING ECONOMICS: “The television industry will continue to experience declining economics and the FCC will allow more consolidation of ownership at the local level, but newspaper cross ownership will still be denied.” Dr. Alan Albarran (University of North Texas)All of this convergence and conversion also translates into consolidation, a theme hit by several people. In a change from last year though, the consolidation is not necessarily seen as all bad. Mike Cavender (Consultant/ Former RTNDA President) says even though he may not like it, the decline in viewership of ‘conventional’ newscasts because of alternative digital sources, along with decreasing margins and increasing costs, means that “it just makes economic sense” for some stations to get out of the news business. Bob Young (Regional Television Executive/ Associated Press) sees it as more centralized control by big groups using proven systems across the board which he says “can raise the standards of what otherwise might be an underperforming station.” Craig Harney (Production Manager/ WTOC/ Savannah) sees government regulation as part of the problem so that “entities with modest resources will have less of those resources available to win viewers.” And Janet Patterson (Researcher, BellSouth) sees the pace of consolidation accelerating and says it will not be limited to markets 30 and smaller.
- BOO: “My prediction -- The line between news and sales/ promotion will be blurred even further and hardly anyone will say boo.” John Nicholson (Syracuse University)Ali Basham (President/ GEO-TV/ Pakistan) sees the move as more of an attempt to broaden news appeal, as he puts it, in “flavoring and content” so that news channels will become tougher competitors to entertainment channels. In the same vein of entertainment and news, Larry Silbermann (ND/ WTOC/ Savannah) predicts Katie Couric will move to CBS and that Katie Campbell will replace her. Albarran doesn’t see that happening, although he thinks the combination of not finding a suitable replacement for Dan Rather together with the breakup of Viacom may mean a CBS-CNN partnership will happen.
- NOSTRADAMUS: Not all the predictions dealt with media. At least three people stepped into the political arena. Patterson predicts at least three members of Congress will lose their jobs because of the Abramoff scandal but she adds with an admittedly cynical note, Americans won’t pay attention and nothing will result. Julia Fox (University of Indiana) steps out with a prediction that Democrats will take back the House and Senate in mid-term elections, but Bob Yuna (Consultant/ Former ND) makes the boldest prediction – a U.S. military strike against Iran. That’s why I headlined this section Nostradamus. After getting Bob’s prediction, I saw several articles citing websites saying the 16th Century seer predicted a war between the West and Iran in 2006.And if you think that was an ‘out-there’ prediction, then I won’t say a thing about the prediction by Lee Meredith (GM/ WAFF/ Huntsville) that the Astros will win the world series in six games.
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