Message From Michael-Jan9th

Message From Michael                    (image placeholder)
                                                  January 9, 2006                                                            

• PLAYING CATCH-UP


• GOOGLE VS. OPRAH


• TRENDS – INTERESTING AND DISTURBING


• LISTS… LISTS AND MORE LISTS FROM 2005


• THE INTERNET IS BROKEN


• UPDATING NIELSEN MACHINATIONS


• COCKTAIL CHATTER

• PLAYING CATCH-UP:  This week’s edition of MfM is a catch-up edition.  A brief review of the many articles, reports, analyses that came out during the time we were on hiatus.  Hopefully this will help you all as YOU put together your ONE prediction and/or ONE resolution (personal and professional) to send to me for 2006.  This edition of MfM comes appropriately at the end of the Consumer Electronics Show which Jon Lafayette of TVWeek.com may have summed up best when he wrote that the biggest revelation “was not so much about what is technologically possible, but what is economically possible.”  The two big predictions at the show focus on broadband video content and mobile TV.  However, it gives you some idea of the vagaries of the vagaries of crystal ball gazing that TVWeek.com sees “huge” growth in mobile TV, citing the Yankee Group estimates that 15 million people will be watching TV on mobile phones and that it will be an $800 Million business by 2009 while eMarketer analysts cite similar figures and see similar potential, but they also warn that the U.S. is nowhere near the European or Asian level of mobile TV and warn of technology and network standard issues that will be a barrier to adoption in the U.S.To keep this in perspective, according to a survey done by research firm IPSOS and released by the A.P., 51% of Americans get TV via cable, 26% get it from satellite services and only 22% now receive TV via over-the-air broadcasting.  Two figures that were higher than most industry observers expected were that 25% of the people surveyed say they have a DVR and nearly half of all cable TV subscribers are now digital.  Talking about digital, (how’s that for a segue), mark February 17, 2009, on your calendar.  That’s when TV will be completely digital.  Analog will be gone.  As Cynthia Turner put it in Cynopsis, the days of rabbit ears are clearly numbered.


• GOOGLE VS. OPRAH:  A survey of consumers by two Madison avenue marketing firms of “brand newsmakers” put the Internet giant and the entertainment giant in a neck-and-neck race for the top two positions for 2006.  The survey is supposed to show image winners and losers.   The managing director of one of the firms, Landor Associates, says the popularity of tech brands show how much technology has become interwoven into the American lifestyle.  The CEO of the other firm, Penn Schoen and Berland, says the vote FOR Oprah and against Britney Spears shows the other major trend, toward optimism and the “need to feel good.”  The others on the winner list are eBay (#3), Las Vegas, iPod, Amazon, Yahoo, ABC, DVR Technology and New York City (#10).  Britney topped the loser list, followed by United Airlines, Howard Stern (#3), Hummer, The Apprentice and Donald Trump, Survivor, Blockbuster Video, Sidekick, Clear Channel Communications AND Donald Trump, again, at #10.  


• TRENDS – INTERESTING AND DISTURBING:  Media giant Gannett is introducing “Advertainment” programs at its stations nationwide.  The program is basically a morning talk show, but the difference is that advertisers buy segments which are then presented as interviews and semi-news.  Radio broadcaster Bonneville International has reshuffled radio frequencies to put “its most popular and lucrative programming – news” onto better frequencies and to partner with The Washington Post on news content.  Mega-Monster retailer Wal-Mart has bought advertisements in newspapers for the first time in a long time, taking out full page ads in 336 Midwestern newspapers.  The company reportedly made the buy as a ‘test’ to see how sales were affected in area stores.  Mega-Monster Internet company Google also has had its own epiphany, by dipping its toe into television advertising… sort of.  The company has been running 15-second sponsorship spots on PBS’s Nova series.  Not actually earth shattering, but observers say it marks a first in the sense that the company is going for ‘consumer-targeted brand advertising.’  And we don’t want to leave Yahoo! out.  The Internet giant plans to launch its own version of a reality show on the Internet, called ‘Wow House’ which follows two families renovating their home electronics.  Electronics maker Siemens has produced new technology that will allow manufacturers and retailers to put flashing graphics and moving text and photos on boxes, using a polymer-based photochromic material instead of the old fashioned cardboard.   CBS and ABC are developing soaps based on the highly popular Spanish telenovelas for introduction this year.  The National Academy of Television Arts and Sciences has created a new Emmy category for outstanding achievement in content for non-traditional delivery platforms – cell phones and mobile devices.


• LISTS… LISTS AND MORE LISTS FROM 2005:   ABC News has taken over as the number one news site of 2005, according to a website called NewsKnife which rates news sites.   NewsKnife which uses a formula based on searches through Google News says ABC News was cited as the number one source more times than any other site, made the most appearances on Google’s homepage and the most appearances overall.  Not far behind was The New York Times (which was #1 in 2004) followed by Reuters which dropped from #2 in 200r to #3.  The Washington Post, the Guardian Unlimited (UK), Voice of America, SFGate.com (Ca), Bloomberg, Times Online (UK), and International Herald Tribune (France) round out the top ten.  CNN came in at #11 followed by the Christian Science Monitor at #12.  Interestingly, the #5 site in 2004, Xinhua of China, did not make the top ten list in 2005.  Even more interesting is who else didn’t make the list.Brandweek has created a list of the best and worst marketing ideas of 2005.  Topping the list of ads that ‘make you cringe’ was the Boeing advertisement in The National Journal for its V-22 Osprey.  The ad shows the aircraft lowering troops into a mosque with the copy reading, “it descends from the heavens… Ironically, it unleashes hell.”   Also making the worst list of ‘clunkers’ was Coca-Cola’s remake of its classic song “I’d like to teach the world to sing” into a rap song and Blockbuster trying to ‘pull the wool’ over consumers’ eyes with its late fees initiative.  On the positive side, the magazine cited the ‘pitch perfect’  campaign by Dove and Curvation aimed at ‘real’ women (not the string thin supermodels), and how Miller Beer “cleverly sucked (Budweiser) into a sparring match.”CMO Magazine has created a similar list of the best and worst in public relations.  Some examples of really bad P.R. lines:  More than 19% of men and 36% of women worldwide would rather give birth than experience poor customer service, a recent survey says.  OR:  "Jesus and rich media -- Did you ever think these two would meet? They have at www.jesusspeaks.org and the technology used to create this talking Jesus was developed by Oddcast.”  OR a release for a network automation program that reads:  “Putting your enterprise on Viagra… saving hundreds of mouse clicks and keystrokes daily.”    Okay, here’s the list that probably says it all.  The top ten search items in 2005.  From Lycos:  Paris Hilton… Pamela Anderson… Britney Spears… Poker… Dragonball… Jennifer Lopez… WWE… Pokemon… Playstation… Hurricane Katrina.  From Yahoo’s Buzz:  Britney Spears… 50 Cent… Cartoon Network… Mariah Carey… Green Day… Jessica Simpson… Paris Hilton… Eminem… Ciara… Lindsay Lohan.  Google does not make its list available.  Search Expert Gord Hotchkiss probably summed it up best:  “I have said, on several occasions, that our search patterns are a reflection of our society. If that's true, our society's intellect is about as deep as the ring left by a Starbucks coffee cup.”


• THE INTERNET IS BROKEN:  Despite all the hoopla about the Internet and growing Broadband penetration, more and more ‘experts’ are warning that the Internet is broken, according to a three part series in Technologyreview.com.  The article authors argue that ‘patches’ to accommodate developments have turned “a simple communications technology… (into)… a complex and convoluted affair. The National Science Foundation is putting together a five to seven research plan estimated to cost between $200 Million and $300 Million “to develop clean-slate architectures that provide security, accommodate new technologies, and are easier to manage.”


• NIELSEN NEWS:  There are so many things happening with Nielsen that it was worth a sub-section all its own.  For starters, the rumors of a sale continue to grow.  Joe Mandese, editor of Media Post, reports several companies are looking at buying Nielsen parent company VNU, including Arbitron; Anglo-Dutch publisher Reed Elsevier which owns Lexis/Nexis, Broadcasting and Cable and Variety; and ironically IMS Health, the same company which was the source of a shareholder revolt when VNU tried to merge with it.  Estimated sale value -- $8.2 Billion.  Starting December 26th, Nielsen has added DVR’s to its ratings tracking system, indicating whether a program has been watched live or later that day, or within seven days of the date it aired.  There were a few missteps and probably will be more, compounded by the fact that Nielsen plans to release multiple data streams to both clients and the media.  Anyway, Nielsen is also planning to weight audience estimates by language preference in 21 markets and it will add a personal race and ethnicity question to the diary.Also worth noting is that Clear Channel Communications has announced it has seven finalists out of the 34 proposals to create a new state-of-the-art electronic measurement system “to more accurately and credibly measure(e) radio’s true performance.”  One of those seven was Arbitron.  


• COCKTAIL CHATTER:  Here are a series of stories which sound more like they should be posted on the satirical website, The Onion, or from the newspaper column, News of the Weird.  So, without further ado --From the people who brought you eavesdropping on Americans without a court warrant, the National Security Agency, comes a new website, Cryptokids, which uses cartoon characters to recruit future codemakers and codebreakers.  (Website:  http://www.nsa.gov/kids/home.cfm. )  The website is designed to recruit young people to become cryptographers.  What is especially ironic is criticism in some quarters that the website, despite its disclaimer, uses cookies to keep track of the kids using the site.   You can read the full article at:   http://www.technologyreview.com/InfoTech/wtr_16092,300,p1.html?trk=nl.So, you’ve already seen TIME Magazine’s person of the year.  Now, BET.com has named its person of the year -- Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan beat out Oprah Winfrey, Sen. Barack Obama and BET founder Robert L. Johnson for the honor.   The website’s vice president said their survey showed that most of their users believed Farrakhan made the “most positive impact on the black community in the past year.”  Farrakhan who is often described in the media as a ‘firebrand’ urged African Americans to bring a class action lawsuit against the U.S. government on behalf of Hurricane Katrina victims and said after a meeting with New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin that the Bush administration had blown up the levees in  New Orleans.The bones of broadcaster and author Alistair Cooke have been stolen by a New York criminal gang that trades body parts for profit.  Cooke died last year at the age of 95 of lung cancer which had spread to his bones.  The story was carried by several newspapers including the New York Daily News and The Guardian in London which quoted his stepdaughter as being “enraged” after finding out that the cremation never occurred and that his “ancient and cancerous” bones had been passed off as healthy tissue.Vault, a multimedia publisher of career content, reports that while 23% of people surveyed described their annual company holiday party as “sedate and boring,” 14% described their party as “wild and crazy.” And 38% of those surveyed reported witnessing co-workers fooling around at the company party.  The fact that liquor is served at 73% of those parties may have something to do with that.  Of those surveyed, 20% said their holiday party is “extravagant” while 25% described their party as “bargain basement.”And if you’re looking for something to counter those “nattering nabobs of negativity” (how many of you remember that allusion?), there is a website titled happynews.com, which has as its credo, “Real News, Compelling Stories, Always Positive.”  To give you an idea how it works, the website carries a story that despite the massive pollution spill in the Chinese river of Songhua, that the nearby town of Harbin, China, will hold its annual winter ice festival.  Or, in the horoscope section, it says, “Good News.  The stars don’t control your destiny.  You do.”Finally, if you would like a light-hearted look ahead, the folks at jibjab.com have created another one of their infamous song parodies, this one focusing on President Bush’s hopes for 2006.   (image placeholder)     If you are receiving this newsletter from someone else, you can subscribe by sending an e-mail to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “subscribe-MM” in the subject line.  If you wish to stop receiving this newsletter, reply to newsconsultant@aol.com with the word “unsubscribe-MM” in the subject line.  Note – This e-mail has been scanned by Norton antivirus before being sent.