Message From Michael -- February 4, 2008

MICROSOFT BID FOR YAHOO

SWEEPS

SUPER BOWL XLII

SUPER TUESDAY

DIGITAL SUPER FUTURE

ANOTHER SIDE OF MEDIA CREDIBILITY

ANOTHER SIDE OF MEDIA IMPORTANCE

COCKTAIL CHATTER



MICROSOFT BID FOR YAHOO: This is just too big a story not to mention. So… consider it mentioned. Watch for the reverberations and recriminations to come. The New York Times in its business pages and its Week In Review section is already labeling it a ‘desperation move’, comparing Microsoft to I.B.M. in the 80’s, and calling the move another example of “creative destruction” – the concept that new, innovative companies and concepts destroy and replace older, established companies and concepts. Meanwhile Wired magazine’s Bryan Gardiner did an interesting number comparison which noted that, based on Nielsen numbers, the combined search market share of Yahoo and Microsoft would be 31.5%. The search market share of Google as of December, 2007, was 56.3%. But that the combined ranking of a Microsoft/Yahoo merger in terms of domain level traffic would be 70 Billion. And based on the $44.6 Billion bid, Microsoft is paying $1,200 for each Yahoo visitor.

SWEEPS: In a similar vein, I couldn’t write an MfM in February without at least mentioning the fact that we’re in sweeps. So… consider it mentioned.

SUPER BOWL XLII: Ditto. Although I would note that the BIG story today (Monday) for all stations will be the Super Bowl ads as viewers pick their best and worst. Both comScore and Nielsen in separate reports note the jump in Web traffic the day after the game. A survey by comScore shows that while half of the people watching say the game itself is their favorite part of the Super Bowl experience, a quarter say it’s the ads. (The rest cite family and friends gathering.) And consumer generated ads are expected to generate a lot of buzz. Meanwhile, Nielsen noted that last year’s 2007 Super Bowl attracted 93 Million viewers with a 41.1 rating among men but a more than respectable 32.2 rating among women viewers.

SUPER TUESDAY: Ditto the ditto. However, again, let me add a few more resources and thoughts for you to consider. First off, a repeat from last week, interest in this election is very high. Non-profit researchers, Resource Shelf, provides a wide list of resources including USA.gov; the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (http://www.eac.gov) created by the Help America Vote Act, and which also has the Voter Information Center; Project Vote Smart (http://www.vote-smart.org) which lists elections, candidates and issues for both journalists and candidates themselves; and the State Department’s foreign press center (http://www.fpc.state.gov) which, as the Resource Shelf people put it, offers a “cornucopia” of information.

DIGITAL SUPER FUTURE: The Internet has officially taken over as the most important source of information – at least among Internet users, according to a study by the Center for the Digital Future at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School of Communication. But even among Internet users, there is still a question of trust and reliability. With the number of hours spent online rising a full hour per week from 2006 to 2007 to an average of 15.3 hours per week, four out of five Internet users (80%) consider the Internet to be an important source of information for them. That’s up dramatically from 66% the year before and is significantly higher than television (68%), radio or newspapers (both 63%). Yet less than half (46%) say that ‘most or all’ of the information online is generally reliable, although the same people say their particular, favorite Web sites are reliable by a margin of 83% and almost the same number (80%) say the established media websites are reliable.

The study which is in its seventh year found that more than half of the Internet users (55%) who are members of an online community feel as strongly about their online communities as they do about their real-world communities. That’s an increase from 43% just a year ago. And membership in online communities has more than doubled in the past three years. Of course that’s only 15%. More than half of the online community members (56%) reported meeting their online counterparts in person, but they also said they have an average of 5.2 friends online whom they have never met in person. Despite this, Internet users report spending slightly more time per week socializing with friends and family in person. When they are online they are buying things, with 60% saying they have bought something (usually under $100) online, and that they make an average of 36 purchases a year online; and yes, they do say it comes at the expense of retail stores.

And in a sort of good news, bad news cliché, the good news is that three out of five Internet users (60%) report looking for news online. Of course that’s still lower than the percentage (71%) who say they are just surfing with no specific destination. The bad news, at least for my newspaper brethren, is that one in five (21%) report they have stopped a subscription for a newspaper or magazine because they can get it, or related content, online. Some consolation comes from a new question in the poll which showed that half (52%) said they would miss the offline edition of the newspaper if it was no longer available while a quarter (27%) said they would not. Another new question in the poll showed that somewhere between a quarter and a third (29%) of Internet users say they have time shifted their TV viewing, using either a VCR or DVR.

ANOTHER SIDE OF MEDIA CREDIBILITY: Despite the Digital Future survey which showed a greater trust in traditional media Websites, another survey, this one by Sacred Heart University in Connecticut, finds increasing skepticism towards the media. While a little more than half (55.3%) say they believe “some” media news reporting, nearly a quarter (23.9%) say they believe little or none of the reporting. And only one in five (19.6%) of those surveyed said they could believe “all or most” of the reporting – a significant drop from the 27.4% reported five years ago in 2003. On top of that, most Americans (87.6%) believe the news media tries to influence public opinion. Less than half (40.7%) gave the media a positive rating for quality of reporting, and a little more than a third (36.9%) for accuracy and right at a third (33.3%) for ‘keeping any personal bias out of stories.’ The director of the polling institute scolded the media saying that, “Americans know bias and imbalance when they see it and they don’t like it. Americans know it’s just not that hard to present both sides and keep personal bias at home.” He compared the 40% rating to the consumer satisfaction ratings that businesses strive for – of 80% to 90%. One of the contributing factors, according to another professor at the university, is that the availability of alternative viewpoints and news sources through the Internet contributes to the skepticism.

Fox News has replaced CNN as “most trusted” for accurate reporting with a 27% for Fox compared to a 14.6% for CNN. This is almost an exact reversal of the figures from five years ago when CNN had a 23.8% compared to Fox’s 14.6%. In third place in terms of trust was NBC News (10.9%), followed by ABC (7%). Local news (6.9%) actually beat CBS News (6.8%) MSNBC (4%), and PBS News (3%).

ANOTHER SIDE OF MEDIA IMPORTANCE: The average viewer/reader/listener/consumer is either eating (68.8%), doing housework (58.3%), doing the laundry (58%), cooking (57.7%), or talking on the phone (48.6%) while that all important newscast, or radio program or Internet video is playing. Kind of puts what you do in perspective, doesn’t it? Just kidding. The Simultaneous Media Usage report from BigResearch reinforces the point made in other research as well as previous MfM reports that people are multi-tasking to an incredible degree while using media. Most people are watching TV, listening to the radio or going online while reading a newspaper, for example. The report also showed that nearly half the audience (41.2%) channel surf during commercials while a third (33.5%) talk with other people either in the room or on the phone. Another nearly third (30.2%) say they just “mentally tune out” commercials while only 5.5% say they “fully attend” to commercials.

COCKTAIL CHATTER: Nearly one in five (17.9%) of all U.S. adults are now retired, according to a report from The Media Audit. And four-fifths (83%) of those own their own homes. Proof that the Baby Boomer version of retirement is different: They travel a lot; 16% of all adults who stay in hotels are retired. They drink a lot; 13% of ‘frequent beer consumers’ are retirees. They go out a lot; 20% of all adults who frequently dine out are retirees.

Now this is one I didn’t see coming. When it comes to golf, only one place in Florida makes it to the top ten – Fort Myers-Naples where one-fifth of the population (19.7%) play golf three or more times a year. The top ranked place for golfers, according to The Media Audit… Minneapolis where 20.6% are frequent golfers, followed by Omaha (20.5%), Grand Rapids (19.4%), Albany, New York (18.6%), Detroit (18%), Akron (17.9%), Spokane (17.7%), and Ann Arbor (17.1%). The report notes that Minnesota and Nebraska are among the top five states for the number of golf courses per capita.

A FINAL NOTE: This is somewhere between a plug and a note of congratulations. Friends and consulting colleagues Cliff Abromats and Graeme Newell along with researcher extraordinaire Earle Jones have joined forces to create a new firm that focuses on emotional branding as a way to recruit new viewers to a station. The group argues that most television consulting and research focuses on “an unimaginative list (of) cookie cutter research that have homogenized our industry.” Instead, they say, the key is to make a “personal connection across all news platforms… to build the brand from the audience up, not the product down.”

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